Condundrum: If Trump’s getting so unpopular …

… then why haven’t Democrats capitalized on it? That question can be taken quite literally, after seeing the DNC’s fundraising numbers for July. Granted, the reporting period ended before the Charlottesville controversy, but how did Republicans raise nearly three times as much as their counterparts?

The Republican National Committee (RNC) expanded its massive fundraising lead over the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in July as the Democrats posted their worst July haul in a decade.

The DNC raised just $3.8 million in July, compared to the $10.2 million raised by the RNC in the same month. While the GOP has no debt, the DNC added slightly to its debt in July, which now sits at $3.4 million.

The Democrats haven’t raised that little money in a July since 2007, when the party raised $3.4 million.

Let’s not forget that while August was hardly without its controversies, July wasn’t exactly all peaches and cream either. Anthony Scaramucci arrived and then departed in July, giving all sorts of distractions along the way. More broadly, Republicans muffed the ObamaCare repeal in July too, touching off a war of words between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell that extended into August. And while most of this took place near the end of July, the animosity between Trump and the GOP, and between conservatives, moderates, and Trumpists in Congress, was apparent all month.

The news wasn’t all bad for Democrats, though. This might matter more if the field had already been level, but …

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised twice as much as its Republican counterpart did in July, with the two sides stockpiling cash for the 2018 midterm fight for the House majority.

The DCCC raised $6.3 million last month, compared to the $3.8 million brought in by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

The two committees are in about the same financial shape overall — the Democratic group has raised $66.2 million this year compared to the $63.9 million raised by the NRCC. But while the DCCC has outraised the NRCC over each of the past three months, the NRCC has about $12 million more in cash on hand.

In other words, they’ve burned through their cash at a higher rate. The DCCC and other Democratic groups tried contesting special elections in strong Republican districts, which might account for the burn rate — although Republicans ended up spending big sums in response. The Ossoff-Handel race in Georgia turned into a costly debacle for Democrats, and these fundraising numbers at least suggest that no one was impressed with their “moral victory” claims afterward.

Well, at least one can say that the Republican Party brand is not a disaster. August fundraising might tell a different story, but the media has been flogging the “Trump’s losing his base” and “Republicans fear the backlash” narratives for months. So far, neither one of these narratives have borne fruit, but don’t expect that to discourage media outlets from continuing them.

Often, national politics is like a football game in that the side that has the ball -- meaning the Presidency and its inherent power and mandate -- almost entirely shuts the other side out from scoring opportunities. Not until the President and his party give up the ball by betraying or otherwise letting down or failing their national coalition will the party out of power get the ball and the chance to make major political gains. Yet even then, when holding the ball, one must have an offense to score points -- and the Democrats lack an offense.

So far, Trump's electoral coalition is holding firm because he is succeeding politically at his signature promises of economic growth, better trade deals, immigration enforcement, tax cuts, and repeal of Obamacare. On all counts, Trump's success must so far be judged as qualified or a work in progress, but Trump is clearly fighting for what his base wants and is therefore winning politically.

Imagine the reaction though if Trump compromised and betrayed one of his key promises through a deal with a recalcitrant Congressional majority. Say, for example, if Trump agreed not to attempt to build the Mexican border wall and to settle instead for more border patrol agents. Such a compromise would have toxic consequences. In effect, by giving up on a signature promise, Trump would no longer be fighting for what he had promised the people who voted for him.

Like Bush's 1994 tax deal that betrayed his memorable promise to never raise taxes, for Trump to enter into a bad immigration deal that abandoned the wall would almost certainly lead to major GOP losses in 2016 and endanger Trump's re-election. In effect, through an ill-chosen deal, Trump would lose the trust of many of his most devoted supporters. Trump's base would never fully trust him again.

Paradoxically, Obama's success in pushing Obamacare through Congress was a similar betrayal of his political base in that the program as enacted did not deliver the low premiums, generous coverage, and choice of doctor that he had promised during the 2008 campaign. Although Obama was reelected, his political party suffered erosion in every election after the passage of Obamacare.

Trump's election was due to a combination of many factors, but no small part was his appeal to disenchanted former Obama voters. Not a conventional conservative or politician and with only a thin identity as a Republican, Trump offered the disruption that many Democrats and much of the American public crave as a remedy for our political ills.

The Trump Presidency though, like any, needs to make deals to win votes in Congress and score tangible political victories. The dishonest rhetoric and public smugness and self-congratulation that commonly attach to such compromises though will risk dissipating Trump's fundamental appeal as fighter and disruptive political force. Trump's re-election and the GOP's prospects may depend heavily on how well he and the GOP address that paradox.

The Democrats' problem now is that they have no credible and appealing program for governing and their coalition is deeply fractured. The Left and minority groups are increasingly organized and demanding, while the pragmatic Clinton-Obama element is depleted, battered, and unfocused.

It is easily possible to imagine a relatively unpopular Donald Trump still winning a solid re-election in 2020 because, as in 2016, the Democratic party nominates a bad candidate and engages in destructive infighting in the primaries.

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