Posted on 09/25/2016 2:22:58 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It appears the race in PA has tightened.
That’s according to the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg survey, which has Hillary Clinton at 44% and Donald Trump at 41%.
Just a week ago, Morning Call and Muhlenberg College had Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage over Trump.
If Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows to two points, 40% to 38%. Johnson and Stein get 8% and 3% respectively.
Demographics
Digging into the crosstabs, Trump’s gains seem to come from additional support from Republicans (85/5) and the middle of the commonwealth (57/31). On the other hand, Clinton leads with Democrats (78/9) and Independents (40/34) as well as Southeast residents (57/26). Trump edged ahead among Southwest residents (44/42).
The gender and educational gaps were both present again. Clinton has an eleven-point advantage with women (48/39) and college graduates (49/38). Meanwhile Trump is ahead by five with men (45/40) and six with non-college graduates (45/39).
The biggest discrepancy, however, is racial. By a 49% to 38% margin, whites favor Trump while non-whites prefer Clinton 68% to 13%.
Finally, 18 to 29 year-olds are with Clinton 51% to 29% whereas 50 to 64 year-olds favor her 45% to 43%. 30 to 49 year-olds are tied 42% to 42% while those over 65 years-old prefer Trump 47% to 41%.
Analysis
How did one week make such a difference? As implausible as it may seem, there might not have been any change at all.
It really doesn’t really make sense for Clinton to post a strong result in the midst of a public bout with pneumonia, but then have worse numbers a week later when no major events happened in between.
It’s likely as simple that both surveys were outliers and/or subject to sampling error. It may well be the case that a nine-point lead is Clinton’s best-case scenario and a three-point lead is the worst. Monday night’s debate could very well swing the numbers between the two poles of a solid Clinton lead and a within the margin of error toss-up.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll was conducted by Muhlenberg University from September 19th to 23rd. They surveyed 486 likely Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error is +/-5%.
This is D+10 — about right.
Trump needs Ds under 85% (plus 10% voting Trump) and over 85% R with +10 Is to win.
Doable.
Surprised SW Penn so tight. Coal miners and all.
Don’t believe all that you see or hear!!
Once you take away Philadelphia, I bet Donald does very well in PA.
“It’s likely as simple that both surveys were outliers and/or subject to sampling error.”
Another polster admitted they had Clinton up in their prior poll due to their sampling of registered voters as opposed to likely voters.
It seems they usually wait a week or two out from the election before saying the polls are tightening. Could it be Trump is so far ahead at this point that they can’t risk propping her up?
I don’t think it’s really that close. Too many Trump bumper stickers/signs/flags. If Hillary has support here, they’ve all been VERY quiet.
Gary “Open Borders” Johnson is a stalking horse for the globalists.
I predict that if it looks like he will ultimately take more votes from Clinton than Trump, that he drops out and opens a breeding farm for Leppos.
If this replaces the previous Muhlenberg College polls from 9/12 to 9/16, that poll had it Clinton 40% Trump 32% in a 4-way. This poll has it Clinton 40% Trump 38% in a 4-way.
That means that Clinton hit a ceiling and Trump gained 6% on her when third-party candidates are included.
In my model, this moves Trump's probability in Pennsylvania from 12.2% last week to 27.8% based on this poll.
-PJ
If he can do well in the counties surrounding Philly he can take the state. I am in NJ but in the Philly media market and just saw a nauseating ad about how Clinton has spent her life working for children. Isn’t that a desparation move? It’s for the children.
Take Pennsylvania and/or Michigan, and the election is pretty much over.
The internals are saying Trump is losing Independents by six points. I am not buying that. Trump is up 20 points nationally with Independents in some national polls I’ve seen.
The big factor will be how much vote fraud they will be able to accomplish in Philly.
-PJ
My husband and I just returned from a week end in Philadelphia. We were there for parents week end at my daughter’s college (St. Joseph’s University) in Philadelphia.
There appears to be little observable enthusiasm for Hillary, even right in the heart of Philadelphia, as we did some driving in the Penn’s landing area, Fairmount Park area, etc. No signs, bumper stickers, nothing.
Of course the BLM voters may very well intend to still vote for Hillary; however from firsthand observation it is fairly clear that there is a lack of enthusiasm.
There were a few Trump stickers on cars on the surrounding interstates, no Hillary stickers whatsoever.
I live in Pa and I can tell you that there are enough ‘Amish’ in Philly and Pittsburgh combined to counter the thoroughly p!ssed off rest of the population who will help put Trump in the White House.
I think you’re correct. The very fact they’re running ads in that market is proof their internal polls aren’t good. Philly used to be a guaranteed win for Democrats. My guess is this and Obama’s whining about giving me a win proves they’re getting desperate.
Stone house,
A little off topic but how is your daughter enjoying St Joes? My daughter is a junior in high school and St Joes is a school she wants to pay a visit to over the next year. We live in northern New Jersey (union county).
Portland (ME) Press: Cankles only up 3 now in 4-way race.
This is the closest an actual ME poll has been.
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