Posted on 04/16/2016 10:10:31 PM PDT by entropy12
The Republican nomination is going to be close. Nate Silver has Trump coming up short. I have Trump winning by a slim margin.
I am looking at some states where I likely underestimated Trumps delegate count more than enough to matter.
Connecticut
A new Connecticut Poll came out on April 10-11.
Thats just one poll, but its significant. Moreover, if Trump wins big in New York on Tuesday, April 19, momentum will likely carry over for the Connecticut primary a week later.
According to Green Papers, Connecticut awards 13 at-large delegates in a winner-take most fashion. If someone gets over 50% they win them all.
There are 5 congressional districts with 3 delegates each going to the district winner. These all appear to be in Trumps camp.
I only gave Trump 19 delegates out of 28, following Silvers expert panel, simply because there were no polls.
I now estimate Trump will sweep all 28. That is a pickup of 9.
(Excerpt) Read more at mishtalk.com ...
Second-guessing Nate Silver doesn’t usually turn out so well.
Nate Silver never projected Trump to be the front runner 6 months ago. Silver has been wrong on many occasions. Google it.
Vince McMahon should put Cruz through a table.
Shedlock is a phenomenon himself.
bookmark
“Jeane Dixon predicted Kennedy’s assassination. It was the only prediction she ever got right.”
Sounds like she should have been listed as a suspect
Given what we’re seeing winning the votes of the people can be meaningless if snakes in the grass are twisting the delegate selection process for the #nevertrump elites.
She later admitted, During the 1960 election, I saw Richard Nixon as the winner,[10] and at the time made unequivocal predictions that JFK would fail to win the election.[11]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeane_Dixon
What she failed to take into account was the dead rising up to vote in Chicago.
Sure did for the Israelis, the Scots, and so on. He has been wrong as often as right.
Meh. Silver’s track record is not that great.
“Meh. Silvers track record is not that great.”
I do not disbelieve you, but I did a search and could not come up with a definitive article either way for politics.
If you have a link I would be grateful.
Silver has gotten Trump, as well as other predictions, wrong many, many times. Silver got his chops predicting Obama’s win in 2008 exactly, and he’s made a career out of that one great prediction since. His website is good for looking up data, but his analysis is often faulty, and he has consistently underestimated Trump.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/03/nate-silver-donald-trump-prediction
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/nate-silver-polls-are-failing-us-206799
http://fortune.com/2016/03/12/trump-nate-silver/
Cheers!
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