Posted on 04/10/2016 5:02:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first!
Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination.
Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers “safe”. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing.
The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. “Ted Cruz wins the Nomination”.
So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his “lane”, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally… to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before.
So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to.
New York
Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls… aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%.
Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but that’s 39%… You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%. Kasich lost 5% in Wyoming and it is reasonable to think he will lose as much or more in Penn State. Which means Ted Cruz, who often surges in the undecides and those who leave other candidates, can quite easily pass Trump here..
Connecticut and Montana
Libertarian, strongly, especially in Republican ranks. Expect these to be #NeverTrump and pro-Cruz.
Delaware and Rhode Island
One closed, one Open. First is 16 delegates, the second 19. No polls, no details, but they are not in the South, which is an important note. Still I concede these States because really… It does not matter in the final math. A win here for Cruz makes it that much more painful for Trump as he gets pummeled to the Convention.
Indiana
Indiana is already a losing proposition for Trump (link) (link)
Washington
Caucus State, closed, and Ted Cruz has almost entirely secured the Delegates there with no issues. Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes. The Caucus is heavily predicted for Cruz, I call 40 of 44 for Cruz and all delegates in the delegate selection.
Oregon
Hello to the Trump team in Oregon, we saw you recently organized. Congratulations on getting paid positions. However you are about 4 months too late. We secured so much of Oregon that it will be a Ted Cruz based slate that makes the Delegates. Further your support is far weaker than our support in Oregon. We have tons of evidence of that. 25 for election, 3 from the State, 28 Delegates total. Of the 25 you will win at best 3. Deal with it. If you beg enough to Trump – maybe he will try, but I sincerely doubt it. Be prepared to be fired afterwards by him for not carrying the State or improving his numbers here. Signed the Ted Cruz Oregon Team Narlina Duke, Jeff Reynolds, Michael Harrington, Mark Callahan, Nathan Dahlin, and many more. Let me know if you ever get anyone to actually endorse you openly. I want you to know we have many candidates and a number of State Representatives and Senators on board.
For those not in Oregon, Oregon is firmly in the Ted Cruz camp. We worked hard in making this happen and the pay off is that when Trump finally showed up he has 3rd rate stringers, a few trolls, a few spies, and we have their ranks fully identified. The two major candidates who support Trump will not publicly say so, that is how bad it is here in Oregon for Trump.
Other States
Not knocking any of them, I just have to get to the other side in a concise manner. Nebraska is Ted Cruz, West Virginia is by Congressional District, South Dakota should be Ted Cruz by significant numbers… The tide is switching hard against Trump and he cannot get enough secured for a first ticket win. It is in probability terms a number equal to being stuck by lightening three times in a row. Ted Cruz has got amazing odds of making it a contested convention, and more so, his odds of winning first ticket are better than Trump’s.
Trump will be short by about 140 delegates according to my current math. This includes some insider knowledge, but there you go. That is the MINIMUM shortage by the way. It could exceed 200 delegates even :)
Delegate Fights
Since this is going to be a Contested Convention without to much doubt, we have to look at how the various States are doing. In this regards there is not much room for Trump. The panic button is pushed and he is already deeply behind. More so the remainder of the States lean towards Ted Cruz. Trump spent his load, and the New York run is the end of the line for the Trump Train. Many of the States having had voted are going to lean to Ted Cruz for delegates even if they have not selected their delegates yet. Here is a list of mostly voted States (or voting).
GOP Leader Delegates (link)
Washington (link) (link)
Wisconsin: Delegates here are actually from the candidates Slate by law. Ted Cruz all but 6 :)
Iowa (link)
Tennessee (link)
Louisiana (link)
Colorado (link) (link)
Ohio: Kasich got his Republican friends to make this so each candidate submitted a Slate and the winner gets their Slate approved. Access denied for Trump, but these will be the most rabid of Kasich supporters.
South Carolina (link)
Wyoming: Convention will nominate 14 more delegates on April 16th. Cruz won with 66% in this Caucus State. Delegate list not yet compiled of course until the Convention.
North Dakota (link)
Georgia (link) In Georgia you had to be a PCP elected a year plus ago. Trump was not even considering it. Ted Cruz was :)
Virginia (link)
Utah: 23rd April we get answers how this one goes. Spoiler: Caucus State, Cruz got 70% of the vote.
Missouri: Ted Cruz is inching out Trump in places like St. Louis and St. Charles for delegates. Votes are happening now. We get the full Slate when we win by at least 1 vote. So yeah, kicking ass and taking names in Missouri (only links are Trump ones complaining, wont post those).
Arizona no delegates selected yet, but the Ted Cruz Slate is expected to win (link)
Oregon: No link, just my word, a Ted Cruz slate is the only Slate that can push through.
Michigan: The only loss for the Ted Cruz campaign to date (link) other than Ohio.
Texas: Guess!
Conclusion
Many States have yet to make their delegations. However in most cases the State Party is leaning Ted Cruz by significant numbers. Additionally the Tea Party, born in 2010, has been taking States by storm in the last few years in the “hidden war” for the Republican Party. I listed only 18 States. Of those 18 we saw one for Kasich, and one split for Trump and Kasich. Some of this is insider knowledge, I am in a few news groups and get details people won’t see and I cannot share. However I will say this, at this juncture I am projecting that Ted Cruz has essentially secured the hearts of 1300+ delegates. This is the battle we have won. We have enough States that we could potentially unseat Reince Priebus with room to spare. It is that significant what is going on inside the Republican Party.
This is not just about Ted Cruz, we are a movement of our own inside the Party.
Now we wont be exactly kicking the Establishment out over-night. Most of the sitting people will remain there, like Mitch McConnell. We don’t have enough top candidates to challenge at the Federal level, but we are in fact winning a larger share of the State level fights by looks of it. So this is where we make the offer… Instead of frequently negotiating with Democrats, negotiate with us. We are the future of the Party. Work with us and there will be less desire to remove you, less need to do so. You can probably stay until you have decided to leave if you reasonably work with us to make the changes the voters of the Republican Party so deeply want that they almost risked electing Trump as a spoiler.
I think they already know we are here however, the endorsements Trump has gotten are from mostly the dead-enders (Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson for example) and lower level ignorant politicians. The main party can see the writing on the wall and probably are already working to make preparations to work with Ted Cruz.
The Fox News team, Lars Larson, and other right side media persons who supported Trump are doing so because either they were told to do so by their parent company and complied, because they got spammed by fake accounts making them think the support was overwhelmingly there for Trump, or because they are factually stationed in New York and have adapted those values we decry.
You weak minded Cruzbots should get a new “whine”, we are all saturated with that one.
Anyway, I never addressed you so screw off.
If Cruz can’t beat trump legitimately....he can’t. Then he will lose to Hillary. You are one of the most delusional people on this site. You think losing the entire east coast doesn’t matter? Your a joke.
I think Trump may be happy to lose.
It was fun running when it was easy.
Loved the yuge crowds and the applause. Kinda enjoyed the fights.
But things haven’t gone as well lately. Trump may have to fight and not tweet.
If he won, he’d have to live in the White House. That shack.
He couldn’t sleep in his own bed in Trump Towers.
He’d have to ride in Air Force One. with no ladies and no tanning bed.
Only one third of the money Trump raised at his big Veteran rally has gone to the vets.
hahaha
The new ‘fabricated’ Trump. Who speaks in complete sentences with soft modulation. Who never interrupts or blasts opponents. The Trump who never refers to his opponent as ‘lying Ted.’
Can’t wait.
hahaha
The new ‘fabricated’ Trump. Who speaks in complete sentences with soft modulation. Who never interrupts or blasts opponents. The Trump who never refers to his opponent as ‘lying Ted.’
Can’t wait.
"Waaaaahhhhhhh! I don't like the threads you post."
Then...don't...click...on...them.
Is redstate saying he lied?
No. Redstate is saying he prepared.
Wrong...
Yep!
“You are one of the most delusional people on this site. You think losing the entire east coast doesn’t matter? Your a joke.”
I suppose Maine isn’t considered the “east coast” in your non-delusional world.
You are a doosh. I said your freak won Maine with a whole 8000 voting in the whole damn state of 2.9 million. You are the dumbest person I have seen on FR in 11 years.
>That is not true. They had Robert KKK Byrd and he was afforded all the benefits and honor of being a demonrat.
That was before the rise of the Social Justice Warrior Nazis. These guys spend the vast majority of their time purging people who are not left wing enough who failed to be left wing enough 20 years ago. If Robert was around today they’d purge him.
Trump ain’t going nowhere. That old dog don’t hunt.
I just wish one Trump supporter would blame the right person...Donald Trump. He didn’t even learn the rules and that is Ted Cruz fault?
Donald Trumps kids can’t even vote for him because they are Democrats... How many more signs do trumpbots need??
right back at you and all the rest of the Cruiser loser ...
you’re delusional if you think the Canadians going to get past the Dem without getting knocked out as NBC in Roberts Supreme Court....
Or have you been asleep the last few years that everything Obama and the left want then get out of the Roberts Supreme Court
But that assuming you get past the GOP at the nomination
Cruz and his supporters are GOPe tool that will be disposed of as soon as they are no longer of use... so they may just pull the plug on him then and there
The terms “Cruisers” and “useful idiot” are about to become synonymous and interchangeable
The course they will be saying it in Spanish in five years thanks to the GOPe and the Cruisers
silly Cruisers they think there little tail is wagging the GOPe dog
1) There was no way a contested convention could beat Trump. He was either going to be defeated at the ballot box or not at all.
2) He could beat him at the ballot box.
"If you want to beat Donald Trump here's how you do it: You beat Donald Trump with the voters,"
Working to replace delegates loyal to him for slots representing voters who chose someone else is an ugly enough game to play without suggesting he had planned it all along, even as a contingency. The other candidates are playing catch up on this kind of betrayal of the voters, and the process has become uglier and less democratic. To suggest he planned it from the beginning, even as a strong contingency, does not make him a "winner" it makes him a snake. My opinion of Cruz is higher than that. I take this moral failing to be an act of desperation rather than a long planned betrayal.
What's odd about this primary - is it's similar with many people who don't like Trump. It's like (and I'm calling this legitimate because as human beings, we like to think of ourselves as totally intellectual - but we're not - and that's a good thing because we'd be dead quickly)j ... it's like he strikes people stronlgly enough right off the bat that there is an instant 'no' followed by plausible reasons to say one is against him for this or that reason.
I've tried to ask myself if I do that with Cruz. in other words, I trust my instincts on people very much, but part of trusting those instincts is knowing they are ultimately fallible. So ... is my position against Cruz just a reaction? But I don'tt think so, because until a few months ago I along with probably 3 or 4 others was always posting "Hey, they are both good, but Cruz is not ready for prime time as a politician even though he's perfect on paper ... he could learn from Trump for 8 years how to persuade, move the country rather than just stand for things ... and that would be a very very powerful 16 years - Trump followed by Cruz. So despite my reactions to Cruz ... I was willing to chalk it up to 'he's just got a quirk where he comes off as inauthentic, overly practiced as if for a debate, and so maybe he was just a super nerd who found his calling in debate, which is theatre, so he overdoes the theatre'
But then I began posting that I thought there was something ... very slightly ... wrong with him ... like that he didn't have a choice, that the inauthenticity wasn't necessarily dishonesty or a mask, but that ... there might be a very light aspergers-y spectrum thing going on, and the problem with that kind of thing is that they don't really share the same nature of human experience as everyone else - they are slightly disconnected. I know it well because my father, who was super smart, went to Harvard blah blah blah, had it too. Nothing you could ever diagnose, but entirely in his head and disconnected in a very slight way .. just something off, that you'd only know or recognize through observation over many years.
My point in saying that isn't to disparage Cruz ... I say it more as a way for his supporters to understand the experience others have of him - it's an experience - not just a 'feeling' like a liberal has - not something shallow - many people - and I might say a huge (not yuge) majority of us ... have a certain reaction to Cruz where everything he says is perfect if you wrote it down or memorized it (like a practiced debater would do, having observed how he 'came off' to different audiences having been judged for it over and over ... ultimately I don't know what the word is ... Insincere? Inauthentic? Masking Something? It's almost 'creepy' and I get that I'm exposing myself to all kinds of .. name calling ... for using that word.
Anyway - enough on that - just that I'm willing to bet, though I can speak for no one but myself - that those of us who are very anti-Cruz and not just pro-Trump, combine the type of things I listed - which as you say aren't definitive proof of anything necessarily - we add that with what our bodies and instincts and raw experience of watching him ... and we say .something very very wrong here - even if it's just a 1 in 3 chance there is something very very wrong ... we're not convicting him of a crime - merely saying 'no, not that one, that's a serious risk'
Lastly, I say all that while noting that in many ways Trump is a mess - but ... his messiness is the type that comes with a serious do-er rather than perfect thinker.
Good yak - thanks for it - happy travels ... and as they say 'I wish your candidate well, but not success' :-) Pardon edit problems above, it's my bedtime and won't be re-reading which normally I do at least once ...
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