Posted on 10/03/2015 5:58:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Reuters Trend Polling and OAN/Gravis Polling have each announced and updated Presidential Polling for the GOP race 2016. The results are exceptionally similar. Both polling outcomes reflect Donald Trump with a massive lead amid the rest of the field.
Gravis Polling has Trump with 35% support. Reuters shows an almost identical 34% outcome. The downstream alignments with the remainder of the field are also very similar. Here’s the OAN/Gravis result:
[…] Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted the random survey of 2,665 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. The polls were conducted on September 30 through October 1, 2015 (link) Below is the graphic result from Reuters.
The Reuters Data also shows an interactive trend line from August 8th to October 2nd. As Carson and Fiorina were promoted by the media (Op-Hummingbird) you can see the Trump trend line went down.
However, once Carson/Fiorina began to be vetted more seriously, and gained additional exposure/scrutiny by the audience, their trend line drops – and Trump is rising again.
The OAN/Gravis poll –when used in combination with Reuters– is a great tool to interpret polling internals and predict outcomes.
Candidate Marco Rubio is currently running along the same path formerly traveled by Carson/Fiorina. Rubio is attempting the same surge as Carson/Fiorina, only he’s about three weeks behind them in his effort.
The key aspect to watch is whether Rubio will meet the same fate as Fiorina (hit ceiling and drop back down), or will Rubio attain a status closer to Carson; which is where a candidate can reach a higher tier, albeit far distanced from the leader, and stay there.
This Rubio rise is more interesting because a trending Rubio will not be forcing a Trump decline, it will be forcing a Bush decline (as evidenced in the OAN/GRAVIS snapshot). Common sense would tell you that Rubio and Bush are fighting for the same supporters – this polling outcome shows the same common sense statistically.
If Rubio can get to the higher tier and stay there; well, Jeb will be reduced to ping-pong ball status (where a candidate is like a ping-pong ball thrown against the roof of a parking garage – the current fate of Fiorina).
Establishment Republicans have a decision to make on who they are going to support long-term financially, Bush or Rubio. Additionally, there’s the Bush family ego at play and they can be a SERIOUSLY bitter group when losing.
Both campaigns are in New York this weekend courting Wall Street hedge-fund billionaires.
IMO, this is unfortunate b/c I don’t think that Trump has been particularly impressive lately, or on point. It seems as if liberal “advisers” have gotten hold of him and reigned him in.
I sure hope Ted Cruz ends up at the top of the elected officials pack.
That would be impressive.
Seriously? He says, without equivocation, Syrian refugees are going back when he gets elected. He calls them out for being young, strong, guys - an army.
Where are you hearing liberal?
The only way Trump loses is for all the anti-Trump vote to coalesce around one of his opponents.
The problem with that is that the people supporting the other candidates aren’t necessarily “anti-Trump”. So as those candidates fall by the wayside, a goodly part of their support will go to Trump.
At this point, barring something unforeseen, I’d say Trump is going to walk away with it.
Come national election time, if Biden or Hillary is all they’ve got, we’ll see lots of Dems defecting to Trump to.
I’m expecting a blow-out. The Dems and GOPe have only themselves to blame.
Yep. Good to go.
Go Trump!
So essentially it’s Trump vs. background noise?
I’m off to check out One Amer News Network.
More Pepto-Bismal for supporters of other candidates, GOPe, Fox News talking heads, Megyn, MSNBC crew, etc.
You need to listen to some of his recent speeches. The one today in Tennessee is good. I really like the interview with Senator Tim Smith.
“Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted the random survey of 2,665 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.9%. The polls were conducted on September 30 through October 1, 2015 “
2665 REGISTERED voters polled....only 1.9% margin of error!! But RCP has not yet included this poll in their averages.
IBD is a true random sample poll. Both Reuters and OAN are polls that use practices that are not accepted by research science. Statistics and research methodology are sciences. They have acceptable practices. Reuters is an on-line poll and can only represent the people who respond to the on-line poll. OAN uses IRV technology or robocalling. Due to the poor response rate (sometimes <1%) this method is not recognized as an acceptable practice. That these methodologies don’t work is proven researched science. I know that Trump supporter will keep touting these polls as they ignore the truth constantly.
That graph is beginning to look like a Thompson contender.
Good points.
A few billion dollars in the bank will do that to ya. :-))
Most of the Trump hate monger a have never bothered to listen to any of his interviews either. The get their new from SNL.
“IMO, this is unfortunate b/c I don’t think that Trump has been particularly impressive lately, or on point. It seems as if liberal “advisers” have gotten hold of him and reigned him in.”
Is this an example of Trump “being reigned in by his “liberal” advisers:
“Trump took the stage in Franklin, Tennessee, on Saturday [today] and made his thoughts clear in front of a raucous crowd.
Trump said he was a staunch advocate of the Second Amendment and that any gun legislation that emerges as a result of mass shootings in the U.S. should be limited to addressing mental health.
He went as far as to imply that if teachers were armed at Oregon’s Umpqua Community College, where nine people were killed on Thursday, the campus “would have been a hell of a lot better off.”
“The Second Amendment of our Constitution is clear,” Trump said, reading from his second policy paper on gun rights. “Every time something happens, they don’t blame mental illness — that our mental healthcare is out of whack and all of the other problems. And by the way, it was a gun-free zone. I will tell you — if you had a couple of the teachers or somebody with guns in that room, you would have been a hell of a lot better off.”
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