Posted on 09/03/2015 1:33:49 PM PDT by entropy12
2014 Population breakdown by Ethnicity:
White 62%
Hispanic 17%
Black 12%
For trump to win in General Election, he needs: 68% of white voters, 36% of Hispanic voters, 15% of Black voters
Is it doable? Will depend on who is more energized in November 2016, Republicans or Democrats.
Comments?
I agree, but it is too early 14 months before election. This thread is meant to only jog interest in effect of ethnic voters. At this point it is all fun and games and conjecture. State by state analysis would be much more accurate next August.
Sounds vaguely familiar with the arguments they were making against Reagan. Do you really think the people are happy with the failed democrat economy and raging unemployment made worse with anti-business/anti-jobs policy and illegal immigration? Workers of every race want jobs first.
Whites were 72% of the electorate last time around. Not only that, Hispanics are heavily clustered in a few states.
Your numbers are off....It will be about 73 percent white at the polls, 12 percent African American, 10 percent Hispanic 5 other
Is the race split based on general population or voter population? Based on 2012 exit polls (unfortunately the best info avail), you white % is too low (62% vs 72% n 2012) with most of the offset in Latino (17% vs 10%). The demographics have shifted some but not that much (and most Latino growth is illegal and can only vote in Democrat polling places).
Trump should bring out more white voters. He will do no worse than his competition and with motivated votes he will do much better.
Your Turnout model is off a little. It will be
73% white
12% African American
10% Hispanic
5% Other
100% of population does not turnout. The turnout model above is what most reputable polling companies are using at this time for 2016 elections. It is possible for this to change as the election nears. He needs 64% of white vote in this model which is 46.72 and needs about 13% of the vote of Hispanic, African American, and Other combined. That gives him 3.51 plus 46.72 totaling 50.23
No mention of the “dead” vote
A lot of minorities are congregated in cities and states that vote rat, anyway. That changes the overall equation as to what is needed to win. Plus, now that they've lived Obamas' failed policies, more may come around.
Need a state by state analysis. Electoral votes win elections.
Stick a fork in her. She's done. Too many Yankees and and third world immigrants have swamped her.
I also predict a higher portion turnout for older and conservative voters, who have been shanghaied for the last 2-3 election cycles.
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I think this is a very possible plus for Trump. I’ve heard a lot of people who gave up voting because of the RINOS, but now have come out of the woodwork for Trump.
What you’re saying is that he’s selling his bed-side manner. But excellent doctor that he is, he is not qualified for the presidency. In the administration, yes, but president, no.
Define lots. Pandering to Blacks is a fool’s errand.
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Agreed!
DO not worry about Wealth tax unless you have $100 Million net worth.
“Breaking down by race is a Democrat thing. He needs a majority of Americans to vote for him to win.”
Dittos!
That is pretty much it. But voters are not all political junkies. Looks matter, charisma matters, snipets as seen on TV matter.
Liberalism is like cancer. It eats you away from within.
14 months before election is too early to get mired in details. Lot will change between now and October 2016.
Yes, I ignored turnout modelling. 14 months too early to get mired in details. This is all fun and games and conjecture right now. Main thing to keep in mind is there are lot of ethnics, and some of them do vote.
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