Your Turnout model is off a little. It will be
73% white
12% African American
10% Hispanic
5% Other
100% of population does not turnout. The turnout model above is what most reputable polling companies are using at this time for 2016 elections. It is possible for this to change as the election nears. He needs 64% of white vote in this model which is 46.72 and needs about 13% of the vote of Hispanic, African American, and Other combined. That gives him 3.51 plus 46.72 totaling 50.23
Yes, I ignored turnout modelling. 14 months too early to get mired in details. This is all fun and games and conjecture right now. Main thing to keep in mind is there are lot of ethnics, and some of them do vote.