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Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney? [Say What?!? 7-10% of Tea Party Evangelicals support Obama??]
The Right Sphere ^ | September 16, 2012 | Tom Dougherty

Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy

There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.

The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.

Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.

Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.

If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes

With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.

In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.

What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.

Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.

A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?

We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.

So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.


TOPICS: Evangelical Christian; Mainline Protestant; Religion & Culture; Religion & Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; christianvote; conservatives; elections; evangelicals; obama; romney
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....the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.

What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.

Based on "polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days." All bulwarks of conservatism, let me tell you!

1 posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:11 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
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To: Alex Murphy

I’m not surprised at this. At least 10% of the members of this forum have said that they will not support Romney no matter what. They will either vote Obama or not vote at all, a distinction without much of a difference.


2 posted on 09/17/2012 7:37:10 PM PDT by centurion316
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Alex Murphy
either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians

A lot of African-Americans are devout evangelical Christians...

5 posted on 09/17/2012 7:38:24 PM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: Alex Murphy
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.

So they're abandoning Romney and somehow find Obama more appealing. How anyone could consider themselves "tea party," yet kneel at the feet of Obama doesn't make sense. But then... very little of what's happening in this country makes sense anymore.

About that evangelical Christian number... how many of those people are "christians" of the Jim Wallis mode? That's a huge factor.

7 posted on 09/17/2012 7:39:49 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: Alex Murphy

I don’t care about polls or vote by polls. No one else should either. Not 50 days out. Bo gotta go!


8 posted on 09/17/2012 7:40:27 PM PDT by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it's the new black. Mmm mmm mmm...)
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To: Alex Murphy

If they poll people like me then the numbers make sense. I will often give conflicting demographic data to screw with the numbers.


9 posted on 09/17/2012 7:43:54 PM PDT by randog (Tap into America!)
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To: ScottinVA

Anecdote, not data:

We know a young couple, under 40 w/2 kids. Both hard workers. The husband had some down time a few years ago and filled in where ever and w/whatever he could. No one had a clue, but they had not been able to make their mortgage and they lost the house recently. They belong to a fundamentalist church. He has stated that zer0 is a Muslim. They take no government aid.

They support xer0 and think Romney is crooked. Nothing will change their minds.

It is beyond frustrating.


10 posted on 09/17/2012 7:46:22 PM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: centurion316

I’m still planning on voting for Virgil Goode.

If Romney comes out with a better economic plan, I could change my mind. But so far, Romney is this years Hope and Change candidate.

I don’t think conservatives are abandoning Romney, they were never on board to begin with.

And the GOP-E were idiots to ever think they would be.

Consider Republicans are about to lose to the least popular incumbent President ever. That says a lot.


11 posted on 09/17/2012 7:46:42 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Alex Murphy

I’m going to vote for Obama. Just last week I told the girl on the phone that I always vote democrat and can’t wait to vote twice for Obama on election day.


12 posted on 09/17/2012 7:47:18 PM PDT by TBall
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To: Alex Murphy

Just because a person may not be supporting Romney does not mean in anyway they are supporting obama, except in the minds of some people.


13 posted on 09/17/2012 7:47:54 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Alex Murphy

Evangelicals don’t always vote conservative. In fact I know several who are MORE concerned with “social justice” than any other issue.

As for Tea Partiers- look around this site- lots of freepers can’t/won’t vote for Romney- no matter what.

Also- there is always a possibility that some libs are lying to pollsters..


14 posted on 09/17/2012 7:50:19 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: Alex Murphy

Many blacks and some Hispanics can be described as evangelicals or charismatics, could that explain those numbers?


16 posted on 09/17/2012 7:52:46 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Alex Murphy

People are screwing with the pollsters. Thats all.


17 posted on 09/17/2012 7:53:38 PM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: ccmay

A lot of African-Americans are devout evangelical Christians


They don’t have a clue about Christianity if they vote for obama. Unless you can find me a Bible that says, “I knew you in the womb as lifeless tissue” I’ll continue to question their version of the faith.

If they do not embrace the Biblical version of marriage, I won’t embrace their version of the religion.

Fortunately, there are many blacks to do understand the Bible and Christianity. I just wish there were more. I wish there were more whites and Hispanics that did too.


18 posted on 09/17/2012 7:55:53 PM PDT by boycott (CAL)
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To: DannyTN
Consider Republicans are about to lose to the least popular incumbent President ever.

With your help apparently...

19 posted on 09/17/2012 7:57:25 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: centurion316

Well if people on this forum openly said they will vote for Obama I think they may be on the wrong forum.


20 posted on 09/17/2012 7:57:33 PM PDT by funfan
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To: centurion316
I don't see those of us that won't vote for Romney as 10% of FR. Maybe 5%.

And no, I won't be voting for Romney or Obama. No liberals, regardless of party.

/johnny

21 posted on 09/17/2012 7:58:05 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: SE Mom
Evangelicals don’t always vote conservative.

Impossible! We're told here on a daily basis that all Dem electoral victories are exclusively the fault of Catholics, and that Protestants always vote correctly.

22 posted on 09/17/2012 7:58:48 PM PDT by Campion ("Social justice" begins in the womb)
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To: VanDeKoik

I’m trying to figure out what a Tea Party Evangelical is.


23 posted on 09/17/2012 7:59:06 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: centurion316
"At least 10% of the members of this forum have said that they will not support Romney no matter what. They will either vote Obama or not vote at all, a distinction without much of a difference."

For anyone who loves this country there is only one way to show it in this election. It isn't by voting for the community organizer or sitting the election out.

24 posted on 09/17/2012 7:59:08 PM PDT by Baynative
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To: Alex Murphy

Any ‘conservative’ that would vote for this socialist is a filthy traitor who should be lined up in front of a firing squad.

Sorry. I just cannot believe that many people would EVER vote for Jokebama


25 posted on 09/17/2012 7:59:14 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Alex Murphy

Are conservatives abandoning Romney?

Why would they vote for a Pubbie who is an admitted Progressive (aka Liberal, collectivist, Leftist, etc.)?

When it’s Progressive(R) vs. Progressive(D) I’ll be voting for Sarah.


26 posted on 09/17/2012 7:59:55 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: reformedliberal

He is not a Tea Party member isnt that what this poll shows?


27 posted on 09/17/2012 8:00:11 PM PDT by funfan
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To: Alex Murphy
One of the biggest surprises in my life was when I discovered the ‘religious’ support for old bjClinton. I know many Baptist of Billy Graham affiliation that are born and bred democrats first. Now I do not know if they are considered ‘evangelicals’, but they sure do exist. These people are white. Social justice is not just a Catholic doctrine. By and large these people are all packed and ready for that ‘rapture’ and IF their votes can bring that day quicker that is exactly how they will vote.
28 posted on 09/17/2012 8:00:46 PM PDT by Just mythoughts (Please help Todd Akin defeat Claire and the GOP-e send money!!!!!)
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To: centurion316

nothing surprises me...again, like you said, look at the freepers who are voting bammey back in...oh, they won’t say that, but that is exactly what they are doing....


29 posted on 09/17/2012 8:03:16 PM PDT by cherry
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To: centurion316

nothing surprises me...again, like you said, look at the freepers who are voting bammey back in...oh, they won’t say that, but that is exactly what they are doing....


30 posted on 09/17/2012 8:03:28 PM PDT by cherry
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To: centurion316
At least 10% of the members of this forum have said that they will not support Romney no matter what

These fools are the same that helped King Obama get elected.

31 posted on 09/17/2012 8:03:55 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: Unam Sanctam

I’m not helping Romney lose, but I’m not helping him win either. Unless of course he listens to my criticisms and adopts my economic plan.

I just don’t see enough reason to vote for Romney. I don’t like either candidate. They are horrible. Just Horrible.


32 posted on 09/17/2012 8:04:22 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Unam Sanctam
Welcome to Free Republic.

The Republicans had this election to lose, depending on how they played it.

The message "We don't need conservatives" was heard loud and clear.

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

/johnny

33 posted on 09/17/2012 8:05:38 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Alex Murphy

This is nuts!

It doesn’t matter how much you hate Mormons, or Romney’s “conservative” credentials.

You don’t qualify as “Tea Party” or “Evangelical” if you’re voting for Obama.


34 posted on 09/17/2012 8:07:45 PM PDT by G Larry (Progressives are Regressive because their objectives devolve to the lowest common denominator.)
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To: Alex Murphy

I’m not convinced that this is true.


35 posted on 09/17/2012 8:08:27 PM PDT by Halgr (Once a Marine, always a Marine - Semper Fi)
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To: JRandomFreeper; centurion316
I think that 10% has gone to 1%.

They're loud, they post a lot, but they're even irrelevant in their numbers here.

Most understand that Mitt is no prize, but Bambi is simply an unthinkable alternative.

36 posted on 09/17/2012 8:08:33 PM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: DannyTN
While the GOP will tell you that they don't need your conservative vote... they will, however, blame you if their liberal loses.

/johnny

37 posted on 09/17/2012 8:08:54 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Unam Sanctam; JRandomFreeper

What JRandomFreeper Freeped.


38 posted on 09/17/2012 8:09:14 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Alex Murphy

I’ve seen several here who said they would rather have Obama with a Republican House and Senate than Romney and who repeat over and over the quote about the ‘devil you know’.


39 posted on 09/17/2012 8:10:00 PM PDT by mnehring
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Comment #40 Removed by Moderator

To: centurion316
They will either vote Obama or not vote at all,

Incorrect. They ARE voting for OBAMA. That is the reality if their inaction results in O winning another term.

They are just children kidding NO ONE. Grow up kids. Are you so silly and selfish. Would your really doom our country to the hell that will grow from another term they may GIVE to O.

Read my tag line. It will be much worse if this election is given to the liberals. Heck, there may not be a FR if O wins another term.
41 posted on 09/17/2012 8:11:22 PM PDT by JSteff ((((It was ALL about SCOTUS. Most forget about that and HAVE DOOMED us for a generation or more.))))
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To: JRandomFreeper
"they will, however, blame you if their liberal loses."

They will indeed.

I'm just hoping congress is impacted enough that whichever liberal wins the white house, has a fairly conservative congress with a case of spineous hughmongous.

42 posted on 09/17/2012 8:13:20 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Alex Murphy

I still dont know what an Evangelical is suppose to be...

I was discussing this new term with some other Christians this morning...

They asked me why they keep seeing “Evangelical” but not “Christian” or Protestant”

But as a Christian and a Conservative I wont be voting for Willard...


43 posted on 09/17/2012 8:13:32 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: Lakeshark
It may be 1%. Which is fine with me. I won't compromise on some things.

The GOP needs to learn that running a liberal is always a losing strategy for them, as far as conservatives are concerned.

If they don't want to go the way of the Whigs, that is.

/johnny

44 posted on 09/17/2012 8:13:32 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Alex Murphy

This is the MSM’s effort to get people thinking that O will surely win. Then when it doesn’t happen (like Gore and Kerry) there will be outrage etc etc etc


45 posted on 09/17/2012 8:15:08 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: ScottinVA

They aren’t kneeling at the feet of Obama. They are the holier-than-thou purists that refuse to vote for Romney, thus are complicit in destroying the very Country they profess to love.

Imbeciles and traitors all.


46 posted on 09/17/2012 8:15:18 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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Comment #47 Removed by Moderator

To: DannyTN
I just don’t see enough reason to vote for Romney.

How about preventing the Marxist from consolidating state socialism in this country?

48 posted on 09/17/2012 8:17:20 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: JRandomFreeper
Romney was last on my list (second to last if you include RuPaul). Sure a lot of GOPe's backed him, but not all. We as conservatives became a circular firing squad, had too many mediocre candidates, and Romney won.

You really want Bambi to win this thing?

Sorry, that's simply unthinkable.

49 posted on 09/17/2012 8:17:39 PM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: fr_freak
Every time someone publishes some BS poll, half of you curl up into the fetal position and cry yourselves to sleep. Stop it.

The GOP is famous for worrying about what 'people will think' and acting out of fear instead of strength.

Face it, they are wusses. Expecting anything else is crazy.

/johnny

50 posted on 09/17/2012 8:17:58 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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