LA Times Recall Poll Methodology (Important Information Regarding Today's Recall Poll)

The LA Times ^ | September 12, 2003 | The LA Times

[Pubbie]

Earlier this week, Field Research Corp. released a poll on the election to recall Gov. Gray Davis. Today, The Times Poll comes out with somewhat different results.

The two polls are more alike than different. Both found the same lineup among the top candidates to replace Gov. Gray Davis — Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the lead with support from 30% of likely voters surveyed, Arnold Schwarzenegger in second place with 25% and state Sen. Tom McClintock in third place.

[Pubbie]

For the record; The LA Times poll is more recent than the Field Poll, and in the LA Times poll, Ueberoth comes in fourth place, and get's 8% of the vote.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[TexasNative2000]

LA Times ping.

[kellynla]

Thanks again, Pubbie. October 7, like all elections in CA, depends on turnout and the independent voters who account for almost TWENTY PERCENT of the registered voters. But we still have to wait for the Ninth District to make a decision...this whole process may be pushed back to March 2004!!!

[KQQL]

This is nothing BUT LA TIMES FAKE POLL....
There is no way recall is 50-47%.....

LA times wants Cruz to win, so they are Fooling Republicans to vote for McClintock so guy CRUZ WINS !!!

Looks like republicans will elect CRUZ


Also, Peter U at 8% ..Yeah Right..he's out of the race and his voters will not vote for McClintock or Cruz

[KQQL]

@

[KQQL]

SurveyUSA 09/10/2003                  SurveyUSA 08/26/2003 
Remove Davis 62%                      Remove Davis 64%
Keep Davis 37%                        Keep Davis 35%

Schwarzenegger 39% (-6%)              Schwarzenegger 45% 
Bustamante 29% (0%)                   Bustamante 29%
McClintock 16% (+5%)                  McClintock 11% 
Ueberroth 6% (0%)                     Ueberroth 6%
Huffington 3% (0%)                    Huffington 3%
Other 4% (0%)                         Other 4%
Undecided 3% (+1%)                    Undecided 2%

Certain Voters (MOE 3.7%)
-Ueberoth is out of the race

-------------------------------------------------------------

09/09/2003 Field Poll                 08/15/2003 Field Poll
Yes on Recall 55%                     Yes on Recall 58%  
No on Recall 40%                      No on Recall 37%  

Bustamante 30% (+5%)                  Bustamante 25%
Schwarzenegger 25% (+3%)              Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 13% (+4%)                  McClintock 9%
Ueberoth 5% (0%)                      Ueberoth 5%                   
Arianna 3% (-1%)                      Arianna 4%               
Camejo 2% (0%)                        Camejo 2%          
                                     
Likely Voters (MOE 4.5%)
W/O MCLINTOCK: 
Schwarzenegger 33% - Bustamante 31%
-Ueberoth is out of the race
---------------------------------------------------------------

LA Times 09/12/03                     08/00/03
For Recall 50%                        For Recall 50%
Against Recall 47%                    Against Recall 45% 

Cruz 30% (-5%)                        Cruz 35%% 
Arnold 25% (+3%)                      Arnold 22%                          
McClintock 18% (+6%)                  McClintock 12%               
Ueberoth 8% (+1%)                     Ueberoth 7%
Arianna 3% (0%)                       Arianna 3% 
Camejo 2% (0%)                        Camejo 2%        
             
Likely Voters (MOE 3%)                  
-Ueberoth is out of the race
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stanford/Knowledge Networks poll 
09/10/2003

Recall leads 62% - 38%
Arnold 40%
Cruz 28%
McClintock 8%
Ueberoth 7%
Arianna 1%
Others 7%

Likely Voters (MOE 4.3%)
-Ueberoth is out of the race

@ LA TIMES POLL IS NOT INLINE WITH 3 OTHER POLLSTERS!

[Pubbie]

This poll is consistent with Survey USA putting McClintock at 16% whereas the LA Times has McClintock at 18%.

[KQQL]

You trust LA TIMES?...........LIBERAL PAPER OF THE YEAR////////

Oh Please give me a break....!

RECALL has to be atleast be at 55%/////////////

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

You trust LA TIMES?...........LIBERAL PAPER OF THE YEAR////////

You trust Arnold Schwarzenegger?................LIBERAL REPUBLICAN OF THE YEAR//////////

[Pubbie]

If the LA Times is underestimating the strength of support for Recall, then that means they are underweighting the number of Conservative Republicans that will show up.

And if they are underestimating the strength of Conservative turnout then the Times is ALSO underestimating the strength for McClintock (And to a lesser extent Arnold).

So McClintock would probably be HIGHER than it is in this poll.

Also ALL polls show McClintock has been gaining support, and Bustamante falling and Arnold flat.

The Trend is clearly on Tom's side.

[Registered]

Hi, just me your tail here...

Arnold Schwarzenegger has given absolutely no reason to doubt him as you have. Maligning someone's character when they have done nothing wrong, well, to me that is just a travesty. Character assassinations are not a good way to build support for your candidate McClintock (or your second choice, Bustamante'). Now the Times, well they certainly have the track record to build a case against trust.

[ElkGroveDan]

All right then, the Lincoln Club of Orange County, an organization of establishment GOP money types and not particularly conservative, commissioned their own poll that has McClintock at 19%.

[South40]

It's amazing what lengths the "vote-for-mcclintock-even-it-means-a-bustamante-win" crowd will go to to try and further their holelessly losing candidate.

I'm convinced they're all members of...

.

[eureka!]

"...they are underweighting the number of Conservative Republicans that will show up. "

They all are underweighting what is happening under the radar, as well. Interesting voter registration numbers from Dan Weintraub's blog yesterday:

"The numbers say that since May, California’s voter rolls have expanded by a net of about 194,000. Of those, more than half, or about 94,000, have been either minor party or decline-to-state registrations. About 80,000 have registered Republican, while 20,000 have registered as Democrats. The separate categories are net figures and thus could also reflect changes in registration of those who were already on the rolls. The numbers for August were even more striking, according to this analysis. There were 72,000 new voters in that month alone. The change in party registration, meanwhile, breaks down this way: 39,000, or 55 percent, were third party or independent registrations. About 23,000, or 32 percent, were Republicans. And 9,000, or 13 percent, were Democrats. "

This race is unlike any other.We are definitely in for some ride in the coming weeks--and who knows where we will end up....

[BJungNan]

I will always remember the polls during the Reagan / Carter election that showed Carter with a slight lead over Reagan.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Hi, just me your tail here...

Can you say desperate Registered? Jay's art has really struck a nerve. FYI, he saw what you posted about him, any more critiques please email him directly at jdyson@sacredcowburgers.com, if you have the conviction.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has given absolutely no reason to doubt him as you have.

That's the funniest thing you've put together in a long time. Exactly why SHOULD I trust a guy who's openly dreamed of political power for decades, jumps in the race, then claims "he'll have to research" every issue that could lead to a policy decision by answering directly.

Character assassinations are not a good way to build support for your candidate McClintock

Another funny thing to say, so your pictures saying McClintock's purpose in the race is to elect Bustamante go over your head in being an example of flagrant hypocracy?

[DiamondDon1]

Previously posted to Rabid Republican...

In a review of the poll, many questions pop up...

In the .pdf file:

1. Question 2 uses the word "seriously" when referring to the "wrong track", influencing voters that the questioner thinks what is happening is not serious (still got a 74 percent wrong track, though RATS only 65 percent).

2. Questions 3 and 4 are missing. What were they? Were they questions like "do find it unfair that Republicans are overturning an election? (they did something similar to that last time)

3. Question 7 is missing...suspicious...

4. In question 8 they did not rotate the list of candidates, Bustamante was number 1 and McClintock was number 2...A way of influencing people is to put the answers you are looking for at the beginning or the end. In this case Bustamante was first, Ueberroth was last, and Arnold was in the middle. Note this way of asking got Ueberroth 8 percent...

Not much of an analysis, but this in the Slimes poll and we can trust the outcome is skewed...

DD

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

It's amazing what lengths the "vote-for-mcclintock-even-it-means-a-bustamante-win" crowd will go to to try and further their holelessly losing candidate.

I'd say the same thing about your ilk shoving this liberal disaster down our throats, however I'm consistent with my stated principles, how 'bout you?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

All right then, the Lincoln Club of Orange County, an organization of establishment GOP money types and not particularly conservative

Well, when (R)nold tells them about "reform" for Workers Comp, repealing the Car Tax (which he asked John & Ken right after his announcement when asked "What is the car tax?" Hillarious) and "fighting" against the energy contracts and SB60---I think all those things should be good enough for the GOP money types to vote for him, right?