CIA Intelligence Report Believed Niger Story was Accurate in Oct

The Wall Street Journal ^ | July 17, 2003 | The Wall Street Journal

[Pubbie]

One of the mysteries of the recent yellowcake uranium flap is why the White House has been so defensive about an intelligence judgment that we don't yet know is false, and that the British still insist is true. Our puzzlement is even greater now that we've learned what last October's national intelligence estimate really said.

We're reliably told that that now famous NIE, which is meant to be the best summary judgment of the intelligence community, isn't nearly as full of doubt about that yellowcake story as the critics assert or as even CIA director George Tenet has suggested. The section on Iraq's hunt for uranium, for example, asserts bluntly that "Iraq also began vigorously trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake" and that "acquiring either would shorten the time Baghdad needs to produce nuclear weapons."

Regarding the supposedly discredited Niger story, the NIE says that "A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001 Niger planned to send several tons of 'pure uranium' (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement."

That foreign government service is of course the British, who still stand by their intelligence. In the next paragraph, the NIE goes on to say that "Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo." It then adds that "We cannot confirm whether Iraq has succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources."

This information, by the way, does not come from the White House, which to our mind has handled this story in ham-handed fashion. But we are told that language identical to what was in the NIE is what the CIA presented to the White House last January 24 in preparation for President Bush's State of the Union address.

As we interpret that NIE language, the President was entirely accurate in what he said in that speech about Saddam pursuing uranium in Africa. Mr. Tenet's carefully calibrated statement and disclosure last Friday accepting responsibility for this "mistake" was more tortured than warranted by the assertions in the NIE.

Keep in mind that NIEs are consensus documents. They aren't the view of some Lone Ranger analyst or a policy cabal. Our late great friend, strategist Albert Wohlstetter, disliked NIEs because he felt they often quashed alternative ways of looking at evidence. But faced with an intelligence community judgment like the one last October, what is an American President to do? Is he supposed to wait until we can prove beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law that some Iraqi agent has actually purchased the stuff?

The larger truth is that it was a deeply held consensus of the U.S. intelligence community that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, including a nuclear weapons program. Multiple U.N. resolutions asserted the same thing. We had proof that Saddam had used chemical weapons in the past. The decision to disarm the Iraqi dictator wasn't based on a single intelligence report but on a mountain of evidence compiled over a dozen years...

In our view, the Committee could do a public service by releasing the entire NIE section on Iraq's uranium hunt, and for that matter on its WMD program, consistent with not compromising sources and methods. Americans could then make their own judgments about whether Mr. Bush was properly looking out for their security.

[Pubbie]

I put this in Breaking because the Media continues to LIE by saying that the Niger story is "Discredited", and it's important to let people know that this story was VERY credible.

[Support Free Republic]

Hi

[PhiKapMom]

Thank -- it belongs on Breaking News. We need to know who are the credible media and who are our enemies.

Wall Street Journal is definitely on the side of Truth!

[MizSterious]

Since Tenet was Clinton's appointment, I can't help but wonder if this was a setup, and Tenet was behind it. Ok, time to take off my tinfoil...

[Howlin]

I suspect everybody. Literally everybody.

[vbmoneyspender]

I think the reason Tenet came out with the apology was that Bush was very upset about leaks coming from the CIA on this story that were undermining Bush. Bush hates leaks and, based on that, I wouldn't be surprised if it was explained to Tenet that he could either sign up with those in the CIA who were doing the leaking and resign or he could apologize for problems with the intelligence and keep his job.

[MJY1288]

A little more info here

[PhiKapMom]

I believe that makes total sense. Also believe he will clean house. I heard George Tenet's speech to our OU graduates this May and the man loves this Country and is strictly an American First individual.

Would also tend to believe that the leaking is coming from Mrs. Wilson and her friends in the CIA -- all clinitonites.

George Tenet also worked for Bush #41's administration. He is a protoge of OU President David Boren who was involved in the Senate Intelligence Committee and Foreign Affairs for years. When Pres Boren recommends someone to work in Intelligence or Foreign Affairs, this President will listen. Boren is currently an unpaid advisor to the President. David Boren seems to one of last of the Democrats you may differ with on some issues, but has integrity and puts America first. BTW, he resigned after Bill Clinton came to office to become OU President. Call for Clinton's resignation during Monicagate on nationwide TV too!

[Mo1]

"Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo." It then adds that "We cannot confirm whether Iraq has succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources."

Is this the first they have mentioned Somalia?

[Spunky]

I am listening to Tom Sullivan, who is filling in for Rush, talking about this now.

[M. Peach]

I'm predicting that the president is setting up the Dems to put their collective feet in their mouths, then shut them up with evidence and facts. Bush is too sure of himself that the weapons will be found.

And I believe the president will find proof of WMD - just in time to get re-elected. The only thing the Dems will be able to put their hands on then is their own genetalia - and you can imagine what that will be like when you have the likes of Barney Frank in the crowd....

[FreeReign]

This information, by the way, does not come from the White House, which to our mind has handled this story in ham-handed fashion. But we are told that language identical to what was in the NIE is what the CIA presented to the White House last January 24 in preparation for President Bush's State of the Union address.

"We are told....January 24...". Does anybody know what the source is on this?

[ameribbean expat]

i'm not into the tinfoil either but damn when you put a clinton holdover at cia together with a clinton buddy in britain, bush has too much political exposure. his intelligence and primary foreign alliance are not inside his circle of control...not an ideal situation.

[Mo1]

Since Tenet was Clinton's appointment, I can't help but wonder if this was a setup, and Tenet was behind it. Ok

If it was, I don't think it was Tenet behind it

[FreeReign]

re reliably told that that now famous NIE, which is meant to be the best summary judgment of the intelligence community, isn't nearly as full of doubt about that yellowcake story as the critics assert or as even CIA director George Tenet has suggested. The section on Iraq's hunt for uranium, for example, asserts bluntly that "Iraq also began vigorously trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake" and that "acquiring either would shorten the time Baghdad needs to produce nuclear weapons." Regarding the supposedly discredited Niger story, the NIE says that "A foreign government service reported that as of early 2001 Niger planned to send several tons of 'pure uranium' (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement." That foreign government service is of course the British, who still stand by their intelligence. In the next paragraph, the NIE goes on to say that "Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo." It then adds that "We cannot confirm whether Iraq has succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources."

It was the State Department's Intelligence that disagreed with this widely held view by the other intelligence agencies about Saddam and African yellow cake. Tenet's seems to think that the 16 words should not have been in the SOTU address simply because of this State Department's dissent. The presidents National Security Coucil seemed to think the 16 words belonged, ignoring the State Department and instead trusting our other larger intelligence and also trusting the British unnamed intelligence.

So why is Bush and Condi not defending this seemingly legitimate National Security Council decision?

[Pubbie]

"o why is Bush and Condi not defending this seemingly legitimate National Security Council decision?"

I don't know, I think they said that they shouldn't have put the Yellowcake in the speech because they didn't have enough evidence at the time to conclusively prove Iraq and Niger were linked.

Anyway it's muddled and they just should say the story is true...

[Pubbie]

"o why is Bush and Condi not defending this seemingly legitimate National Security Council decision?"

I don't know, I think they said that they shouldn't have put the Yellowcake in the speech because they didn't have enough evidence at the time to conclusively prove Iraq and Niger were linked.

Anyway it's muddled and they just should say the story is true...

[jriemer]

"Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo." It then adds that "We cannot confirm whether Iraq has succeeded in acquiring uranium ore and/or yellowcake from these sources."

Is this the first they have mentioned Somalia?

Somalia is likely the location of a middleman. Most of the African Uranium ore is mined in Namibia, Niger, and South Africa. Uranium Maps

[Mo1]

Thanks Jriemer ..

[Cyber Liberty]

I suspect everybody. Literally everybody.

I'm innocent (of this)....