Is Linux Your Next OS? (John Dvorak)

PC Magazine ^ | 3/5/02 | John Dvorak

[Incorrigible]

Over the decades of desktop computing, we've witnessed one transition after another. We changed from 5.25-inch floppy disks to 3.5-inch floppy disks to no floppy disks. We moved from the CP/M machine to the IBM machine to the PC clone and from the dot matrix printer to laser and ink jet printers. We changed from the command line OS to the GUI.

[Incorrigible]

There's no bigger turnoff to most of humanity than to be associated with a bunch of scary [Linux] lunatics or creepy [Linux] nutballs.

I think that just about sums it up!

[WIMom]

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[Incorrigible]

Microsoft proved this by getting into the browser market with a second-rate product with an economic edge (it was free).

That's an uncalled for slur!  The Netscape browser was essentially free since there was always some version in beta.  Further, it didn't get popular right away, Microsoft plugged away at it until it became a clearly superior product.  This is something the big egos as Netscape couldn't fathom at the time.  They bragged that their versioning speed ("Internet time") would leave Microsoft choking on their dust.  HA! HA! Suckers!

However, since John Dvorak is in Microsoft's pocket (right Linux nutballs!) I will call up Microsoft marketing and hopefully they'll assign the Press Relations people to go down to Silicon Valley and give him a "wedgy" for writing this column!

[RobRoy]

There's no bigger turnoff to most of humanity than to be associated with a bunch of scary [Freeper] lunatics or creepy [Freeper] nutballs.

Some would argue this would apply as well, and I suppose it is true in a sense. The important concept here is the idea of perception.

[Revolting cat!]

Photoshop will put Linux over the top, huh? John Dvorak must know the work and the world wide influence of Registered.

[SpaceBar]

"Is Linux Your Next OS?"

It already is. I'm writing this using Mozilla in the ICE window manager on Slackware 8.0. So there.

[spqrzilla9]

I'm trying to remember when Dvorak made one correct prediction in the PC market ......

Don't wait, I may be thinking awhile ....

[E=MC²]

I sense that Linux is at a crossroads of becoming very important or becoming a footnote in desktop OS history. Right now, I'm banking on it becoming very important—and I mean on the desktop.

I've read Dvorak for years, and his batting average is not really very good on predictions.

[RobRoy]

I have no ax to grind either way. Except that I live in Microsoft country and lots of my friends work there. I use Netscape at work (version 4.2) and Microsoft IE (latest version) at home. I can tell you without a doubt that the Netscape product is superior. I don't have time to back it up with examples but I believe it to be true from my very extensive use of both.

The only problem I have with netscape is when I hit sites that are optimized for the microsoft product. The fact is that if you design a page with only the windows browser in mind, you can take a lot of shortcuts, like simple (and low byte usage) clickable fonts that you can't use if you're designing for both browsers. Some sites I've hit are so microsoft specific that if you hit them with netscape, you get a picture and nothing clickable at all. You can't navigate them. But then, a site designed strictly for netscape would be just as useless to a microsoft browser.

[Incorrigible]

Photoshop will put Linux over the top, huh? John Dvorak must know the work and the world wide influence of Registered.

LOL!

[Henk]

Wow, I think I'll run my business on something called "Slackware".

[Incorrigible]

Right now, I'm banking on it becoming very important—and I mean on the desktop.

I've read Dvorak for years, and his batting average is not really very good on predictions.

I started reading his PC Week column when he complained about IBM not buying him lunch in 1988!

Your right.  I'm glad about this one!

[egarvue]

I agree. As a database/web developer, I am sick and tired of developing my pages that will satisfy a microcosm of my users who still use that dinosaur Netscape, rather than just full blown IE. Yes, I know, both Netscape and MS should stick to the web standard. But since they didn't, lets just have one frickin' browser, so we can get our work done and not worry about "Will this work in Netscape"; I am sick to death of Netscape, I'd wish they'd die already. Note: the above comments are coming from a very frustrated developer who's been battling Netscape crap all day, and won't get to go home on time today because of it.

[RobRoy]

Is photoshop that good? I have been using the Microsoft photo thingy I got with office 2000 pro for a few months and it's capabilities are blowing me away. What's so great about adobe photoshop anyway? Should I rush out in a buying frenzy?!?!

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Sounds very logical and well reasoned except for one small detail. Linux users are committed to free software. Last time I checked Photoshop isn't distributed for free. Is Adobe going to give their software away? Are linux users going to get 99.9% of their software for free, but pay for this one killer app? In two words, no and no. End of story.

[Billthedrill]

Linux has one hurdle to jump which, IMHO, Microsoft has addressed pretty well with XP (I'll smoke a turd in hell for praising XP, but it's true), and that is ease of installation across a wide spectrum of hardware. My last Linux installation was RedHat 7.1 and it is light-years better than its predecessors but still a bit opaque to a user used to the installer finding drivers and setting defaults for him or her. Applications installation (StarOffice in my case) proved just different enough to cause a bit of head-scratching, not insuperably difficult but not exactly plug-and-go either.

Where Linux is succeeding best at the moment is in server, and not workstation implementations, where a grizzled, scarred SysAdmin (who remembers the bad old days of installing Netware 3.11 from a stack of floppies and having number 29 of 36 fail on him) will be happy to put up with the extra effort. Of course, most home users these days don't do a lot of OS installation, so that may not be as big as I'm thinking. In that case the key will be for Linux to penetrate the pre-loaded OS market the way Microsoft has, and that's going to be a bloody, wicked marketing fight, which a monolithic organization like Microsoft is better set up to engage in than the decentralized Linux distribution network.

[Bush2000]

Sounds very logical and well reasoned except for one small detail. Linux users are committed to free software.

Let's call a spade a spade: Linux users are cheapskates.

[rdb3]

Right now, I'm banking on it becoming very important—and I mean on the desktop.

I don't know. I'm not ready to make such a bold prediction at the moment. Here's why.

For starters, the #4 complaint is the most serious, and the most accurate to boot. My greatest fear among my fellow Penguins is that we will slide off into the mindset of the Mac user. Mac users as whole scare the daylights out of me. It's like a religious experience when they just think of booting their machines. And there are some Linux users who lean this way. And I'll be the first to admit that it's more of being blatantly anti-Microsoft than it is a lover of the Linux kernel and distros.

Second, the OpenSource environment is absolutely wonderful. . . if you're a techy. This is often offered as the greatest strength of Linux. Maybe. But, it doesn't mean a hill of beans to the average home user. It would be an oxymoron to force OpenSource into some type of standardization. But Bill Gates can forever sleep good at night concerning Linux if it remains this way.

Lastly, there's too much pride in distro-land. Redhat. Mandrake. Slack. Debian. Turbo. Yellow. SuSE. Gimme a break already! Techies like me have no problem going from one to the other. But Joe Q. Blow, who barely knows how to forward a chain letter through email, could care less!

No, Tux has a long, long, LOOOONNNNGGGG way to go before it is a serious desktop player. But let me also say this to the MS crowd: Don't sleep on the funny walking, flightless little pudgy bird! Your company's own history should teach you this much. Steve Jobs slept on Windows (i.e. didn't take it seriously) and look what happened.

[Common Tator]

If you are going to take on Windows you have to be compatable.

Bill Gates whops me about 25 bucks a year for the operating system and about 75 bucks a year for office. That means it costs me 100 bucks a year to keep the latest MS stuff on my machines.

Linux is a great operating system and it is FREE. It has good office stuff too. And it is FREE

But the problem is pure economics. Nearly every job applicant that walks in my door knows Windows. Not one in a hundred knows Linux. So to switch to FREE LINUX I have to spend a $1,000 per employee to train them on FREE LINUX. It would take ten years to pay for the costs of going to Free Linux. Gates knows that and I know that ... So Gates is not worried.

Those that want to take on Microsoft you will have to do what Chevie did to Ford starting way back in 1915. They built a Chevie that any Ford driver could drive with out any traning.

When the only way to tell the differnce in operation between LINUX and Windows is the Logo, then Windows will be deader than a MODEL T. Until that time Gates will continue to be the worlds richest man.

[TomB]

Why Linux has a long way to go before replacing Windows:

Instructions for installing Netscape:

Installing on Windows

You may want to print these instructions. When you are ready to install, return to the Netscape Products download page.

When you click the Download button, Netscape downloads the N6Setup.exe program to your computer. By default, it is downloaded to the last folder in which you saved a file. Be sure to note this location. You can also use standard Windows techniques to save the file somewhere else if you prefer.

1.Find the N6Setup program icon on your machine and Double-click it to begin the Setup program.

2. Follow the on-screen instructions in the Setup program.

Installing on Linux

These instructions assume that you have an intermediate knowledge of Unix command syntax and experience installing applications on Unix. To install, you must be logged in as a superuser so that you have write permissions for all folders. If you have any problems, please contact your system administrator or Netscape technical support. You may want to print these instructions. When you are ready to install, return to the Netscape Products download page.

When you click the Download button, Netscape downloads the netscape-i686-pc-linux-gnu-installer.tar.gz archive to your computer. Be sure to note where the file is saved. You can also use standard Linux techniques to save the file somewhere else if you prefer.

1.Type one of the following to unzip and untar the archive: tar -zxvf netscape-i686-pc-linux-gnu-installer.tar.gz OR gzip -dc netscape-i686-pc-linux-gnu-installer.tar.gz | tar xvf - .

2.Change to the directory that contains the Netscape installation files: cd netscape-installer.

3.Run the Netscape 6.2.1 Installer with the run script: ./netscape-installer.

4.Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the installation process.

Now. Which looks easier and more intuitive?