Posted on 03/16/2024 2:36:19 PM PDT by delta7
Starting a historical analogy with complete horse manure doesn't really work.
As Christopher Clark explains, what set the stage for WWI was Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. This moved Russia's probing for imperial advance away from East Asia and towards the Balkans, where unbeknownst to the court at St. Petersburg, the Russian ambassador in Belgrade was aiding and conspiring with Serb ultra-nationalists against Austria-Hungary. This would eventual result in the Black Hand assassinating Archduke Ferdinand.
Meanwhile, the French panicked because with Russia defeated, their defensive alliance with Russia seemed on shaky ground. As a consequence, France increased the tempo of its conscription, dramatically increasing the size of its trained reserves. France also made enormous loans to Russia for it to re-equip its armed forces and expand its rail network to deliver them more quickly to an eastern front against Germany. This transformed a defensive alliance into what looked like an offensive alliance.
This, of course, did not go unnoticed in Berlin and made the Germans think they had to strike first and strike quickly against France in the event of hostilities before Russia's vast resources (on paper) could be brought to bear.
The major power with the least to gain and least involvement was actually Great Britain, which had not joined any alliance structure. Unfortunately for them, the British Minister for War had given the French assurances that Britain would come to their aid. He just neglected to inform the Cabinet or Parliament. So when the French ambassador in London met with the British Cabinet upon war breaking out, they were aghast when they heard that the French had moved almost all their Navy to the Med because they expected the Brits to defend the French coast. The first vote for war was "No." Only in the morning did the Cabinet feel that honor required Britain to meet the promise of their Minister for War. That decision cost Britain and the Commonwealth almost 1 million dead.
In terms of WW1 comparisons to the present war, Ukraine is Serbia.
The UK has played the game of alternately trying to diminish Russia and Germany since at least the Crimean war. Before that, it was France for many centuries.
The author is a putz. The Russian foreign ministry, defense and president have all stated foreign troops with trigger war with that nation. Also without each country in NATO approving a deployment NATO sa s they will not go to war for French or Polish soldiers if Russia attacks their home countries.
NATO had to make it clear a week ago when Macron was making threats and Russia told NATO Russia would be at war eith the alliance over French troops. NATO backed down.
This is old saber rattling already history.
Belgium neutrality had been guaranteed by treaty of 1839 The German SCHLIEFEN PLAN demanded that German armies would cross Belgium Territory on way to France which would result in Britian becoming involved One of the German demands for the peace treaty after France had been defeated would be to cede a strip 50 miles long along the English Channel and clear French from the area and replace them with Germans - something Britian would never agree to .
If military personnel from France, Poland, Germany are placed in Ukraine, and Russia then attacks one of them, too bad soo sad. It does not trigger the NATO article of responding to an attack. It simple does not apply.
The author, I think, is trying to say that Russia will attack Germany, Poland and/or France itself (as well as the troops in Ukraine), which WOULD trigger the NATO defense pact.
ping
Blimey. Can anybody take seriously anything which follows such a ludicrous opening.
The internecine treaties and pacts between the various participants of WWI were insane, IMO. And, all it took was one act by one dissident to touch off a carnage of unimaginable proportions. I believe that the NATO we have now is as equally dangerous.
Not just Christopher Clark, but Margaret McMillan and pretty well every other historian making yet another attempt to unscramble the causes of WWII. Although with differences of emphasis, there's pretty well general agreement that principal responsibility lies with neither Germany or Britain, but with the Austro-Hungarian Empire: which, alone of the Great Powers, was actively pursuing war throughout the complex diplomatic gaming of the previous decade. All the others, Germany included, were drawn in with varying degrees of reluctance.
You really believe that nonsense, Ivan?
‘WWII’
WW1 of course. Apologies
If I recall correctly, an American officer travelled through the capitals talking to his counterparts a year or two before WWI started. Regarding the gung-ho expectation of a quick short war he encountered but applying the American experience in the Civil War, he reported back that they were all crazy. The Europeans thought the high casualties of the American Civil War were due to incompetence.
However, the Imperial General Staff had warned the British government that any commitment of British forces to a European land conflict would destroy the entire 100K British Army in a few months. And so it was: by December 1914, almost the entire original force were casualties.
Russia invades multiple neighbors on multiple occasions in the past 20 years, but it's the West that's instigating WWIII.
LOL
You still have a lot of faith in the people who planned the great Ukrainian offensive. Biden and his clown posse want to arm illegals so they can use the military against American citizens. The other NATO countries are in the process of destroying their military with woke nonsense. I wouldn’t put much faith in those “smart” guys.
“Biden and his clown posse” are pulling the strings in Moscow according to this story. What’s that say for Putin and Ruzzia that they got duped into war by a clown posse led by a guy who craps his pants?
My guess is the trigger will be a capital ship goes down a la Lusitania.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.