How Are Electric Vehicles Taxed in Your State?

taxfoundation.org ^ | September 20, 2023 | Benjamin Jaros, Adam Hoffer

[DIRTYSECRET]

Think universal UBER-driverless. No one owns one-communism. Bumper to bumper at 70mph. Buses for commuters. Make them EV only if the market gives in.

Just think. No maintainence/auto insurance to pay. No highway patrol.
I tell you. It’s gonna be awesome.

[fireman15]

Even a vehicle with only 50% capacity could still be a used as an in-town commuter vehicle, it would seem.

It would seem so... I can tell you judging from my own fairly lengthy experience with lithium based batteries, once they get down to the 50% range they can crap out on you completely at almost any time. They do not typically linger for very long once they start to fail. And you also may end up with cells that start overheating and put the entire battery at risk.

People with skills, training and equipment can sometimes squeeze a little more life out of them, but this is typically more along the lines of adding sawdust to motor oil to hide a rod that is knocking or crankshaft that has main bearings that are shot.

This is one of the primary reasons China has junkyards filled with abandoned electric vehicles. Believe me they are more adept at using crap that is ready to be retired than people here are.

[Vaduz]

How Are Electric Vehicles Taxed in Your State?

Before or after the fire?.

[Yardstick]

Is your experience with lithium batteries in vehicles? I’m not sure phones, laptops, and cordless drills are good predictors of how the batteries in EVs will behave as they age, even though they all contain lithium. It could be that they are, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re not. It would be interesting to see a good analysis of how EV batteries are going to perform as they age. I don’t know enough of the circumstances behind the Chinese junkyards to tell if their existence means anything. The Chinese have oddball stuff like ghost cities going on over there that seem peculiar to their quasi-communist economy and its massive misallocations of resources. Maybe these EV graveyards are a similar story.

[Yardstick]

Interesting —thanks

[fireman15]

Is your experience with lithium batteries in vehicles? I'm not sure phones, laptops, and cordless drills are good predictors of how the batteries in EVs will behave as they age, even though they all contain lithium. It could be that they are, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're not.

I have had experiences and training with various types of lithium-based batteries in various types of applications including vehicles. Interestingly enough my first experiences lithium-ion cells were with 18650 type cells which are the same type used in many electrical vehicles including Tesla model S and X cars since 2013. As one of the leaders of a Hazmat Team I took classes on the intricacies and construction methods ued in various types of hybrid and electric vehicle batteries.

Although some laptops used to rely on 18650 type cells and some cordless tools as well... cell phones, laptops and most other consumer electronics have been relying on lithium polymer batteries for years now.

You are correct that the type of usage and the application affects the expected life of the batteries. Not all 18650 cells are created equal. 18650 is a battery size and not an indicator of the exact chemistry being used. Some have higher energy density and are better quality. Some are designed for higher charge and discharge rates. Some are designed to survive a higher number of charge/discharge cycles. Some are capable handling deeper discharge voltages and able to handle higher levels of charging voltages without as much damage. But the basics of these types of cells are similar as is there expected behavior as they reach the end of their useful lives and also the factors that cause them to fail.

When they have faded to 50% capacity they are likely to quit working completely within a short period of time. Imagining that they can be repurposed as they fade is not realistic. Some batteries can be repaired if they are relatively new and the bad cells can be located and replaced, but old batteries that are nearing the end of their lives are not typically repairable.

Many of us have been familiar with other types of rechargeable cells and also lead acid batteries for many decades. They do not behave the same as lithium based batteries and they are not nearly as robust.

As far as the huge number of electric vehicles that have been abandoned in China... there are various reasons for that. There have been a lot of improvements made to electric vehicles since the Chinese government first began incentivizing them. As the batteries began going bad, in most cases the cost of replacing them was prohibitive because newer vehicles with far better features, range, and utility were a better deal especially with ongoing government subsidies. The same type of issues and others are likely to occur here.

Normal gasoline and diesel powered vehicles have had few substantial improvements in decades. Both of the vehicles that my wife and I own are over 20 years old, still look fine and have approximately 99% of the utility of newer vehicles. They might get slightly worse fuel economy, but at the price people currently pay for new vehicles even if gasoline cost $10 a gallon the improved fuel economy would still take decades to actually save any money.

Electric vehicles are a completely different animal. Just like in China, improvements are being made constantly. The batteries are very expensive, and the vehicles depreciate much more quickly than normal vehicles. That translates into the same situation happening here.

Used Tesla blown up in Finland when the new owner discovered a replacement battery would cost far more than he paid for the car.

[fireman15]

Sorry I had a typo...

They do not behave the same as lithium based batteries. Lithium based batteries are not nearly as robust.

[EVO X]

The problem with EV mass transit buses is the battery wont last the entire day.

[Yardstick]

Thanks for the reply. I did some poking around and the answer to “what is the lifespan of an EV battery?” seems to be that we don’t really know yet. But so far they seem to be exceeding expectations, and the pattern doesn’t seem to be that they fail suddenly and become unusable. Instead there seems to be a falloff early on which then flattens into a plateau with a slow gradual decline. Most of the EVs out there are currently on this plateau.

Here’s a site with some interesting data:

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

It’s by an organization that tracks battery data of its members’ EVs. They currently have over 15,000 members they are collecting data on. The linked page has plots showing driving range versus odometer miles where you can see the falloff trends in various EV makes and models.

Interesting Autoweek article on battery life:

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a39713122/predicting-how-much-range-ev-batteries-lose-over-time/

Tesla uses four kinds of Li batteries. The 18650 you mentioned was used in early models and is still used in the luxury Model S. The more common Model 3 is now two generations beyond the 18650 (which is an NCA type...nickel cobalt aluminum). Recently they’ve started using a new type of battery (LFP...lithium iron phosphate) that doesn’t use either cobalt or nickel and is much easier to source. It’s also easier to recycle and much less prone to thermal runaway.

https://insideevs.com/news/587455/batteries-tesla-using-electric-cars/

This article says LFP is intrinsically incapable of self-induced thermal runaway:

https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/safety-of-lithium-ion-batteries/

On eBay it looks like 2013 Tesla model S’s sell for between $10K and $20K depending on condition:

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=tesla+model+s&_sacat=0&Model%2520Year=2013&_dcat=180042&rt=nc&LH_Sold=1&LH_Complete=1

Based on what I’m reading, the price of replacement batteries has been falling and there’s an active market for refurbished and used batteries. Replacing an S battery looks like $20K on the high end for a brand new battery, but I’m also seeing people paying a third of that for a refurb battery with a warranty.

A factor in extending EV battery lifespan, and part of what separates EV batteries from Li batteries used in other applications, is apparently the active cooling that’s designed into EV battery packs. Apparently Li batteries are especially prone to degradation when their temperature isn’t controlled.

[fireman15]

Instead there seems to be a falloff early on which then flattens into a plateau with a slow gradual decline. Most of the EVs out there are currently on this plateau.

It may not be possible to replace your battery yourself and then insure the car. Unfortunately, I believe that many of the reports that you are putting your faith in are from advocates who are not sharing the whole truth.

It is a little like my 2001 Astro van which has 240,000 miles and is still going strong. The trip computer has always reported that the MPG is about 10% greater than it actually is.

Even in the article from Autoweek, "When the car was new, Neary would see a rated range of 252 miles after a full charge. “But now I don’t trust the car beyond 100 miles of range,” he said. The range degradation combines a number of factors. Now, when fully charged the gauge shows 174 miles. “And for the last two years, I can’t drive to an indicated zero miles anymore,” Neary said. “With a rated 30 miles left the car will tell me to pull over and shut down.”

These vehicles do not give an accurate indication of how much range is really left. At least my Astro van gives me an accurate indication of how much range that I have left. You are certainly free to put your faith in whatever research that you want to. I would warn you however that confirmation bias is something that we all struggle with. Most people you meet who have a few years of experience regardless of whether they are true believers or not will admit that electric vehicles seldom come very close to their advertised numbers after just a year or two. It is the nature of the beast.

[fireman15]

I did want to thank you for sharing your links... I am a little busy today but I did try to go through them all. There was some good information. I did not see anything that seemed to be responsible for your statement, “ the pattern doesn’t seem to be that they fail suddenly and become unusable. Instead there seems to be a falloff early on which then flattens into a plateau with a slow gradual decline.”

This actually does not completely contradict what I said in post 26, “When they have faded to 50% capacity, they are likely to quit working completely within a short period of time.” The long fading period is to about 50%. Once they fade to around 50% they do not tend to remain useful for any purpose for very much longer. Typically, they quit working completely not too long afterwards. This has been my experience with various types of lithium-based batteries over a fairly long period of time... They go downhill for quite awhile; you think that you will be able to keep using them and then they stop working completely.

I am a person who uses things until they are completely warn out and throws away nothing if it still has some possible uses or contains parts that could be salvaged. But over the years I have had to take a lot of lithium-based batteries to the hazardous disposal drop-off location of our city dump.

I am however interested in where you picked up your impression that lithium-based batteries slowly fade to nothing.

[fireman15]

I did find a couple of links that said basically what you have, but they were not referring to battery packs which contained a large number of cells. I believe that the problem is that when one cell fails completely and it could even be the protection circuit... the entire battery pack can typically fails completely, and they are often not rebuildable especially by the end user and not worth a professional’s time to mess with by that point.

As far as buying used batteries that have been “refurbished” this can be a very frustrating game. From experience, they typically are not worth messing with in most applications.

[Yardstick]

First off, I’m not an EV true believer by any stretch. But I am trying to get a clear understanding of their pros and cons rather than rejecting them outright. This means acknowledging the areas where they’re successful.

The plots in the first page I linked show the decline in range versus mileage for various EV makes and models based on data collected from 15,000 or so vehicles. You can see in most plots there’s an initial loss of range in the first 20K or so miles and then it flattens out and continues on with only a very mild loss of range per year. This is a consistent pattern across nearly all of the plots.

The long fading period isn’t to about 50%. It’s to more like 90%. The Tesla Model 3 with the mid-tier 75kWh battery starts out with a range of about 300 miles and then settles to a range of about 280 miles. The graph is very flat from about 20K out to 100K miles on the odometer. The plots end at 100K miles, probably because they don’t much data on cars beyond that mileage at this point. The trend of the data shows no sign of a sudden inflection towards failure.

An interesting statistic is that, industry wide, only 1.5% of EVs are requiring battery replacements within the warranty period, which for the Tesla Model 3 is 8 years or 150K miles. So at 150K miles most Tesla 3’a have at least 70% capacity (70% is the threshold for replacement) and presumably are still on the flat part of their decline.

The guy in the Autoweek article whose EV was acting strange had a vehicle with over 200K miles. The article suggests his experience may be anomalous since studies have found vehicles with 200K+ miles to have only a minor loss of range.

[Yardstick]

As far as I can tell, all EV batteries are made of many small cells, although the size of the cells has increased as the technology has been evolving, so there are fewer cells per battery pack now.

I used the word refurbished but I think what they’re mostly doing is actually recertifying them. That is, they’re pulling them maybe wrecked cars and putting them through a bunch of tests and if they’ve still got good capacity then they resell them. I don’t know if anyone is attempting to rehab bad batteries.

[fireman15]

In truth after looking at your profile page, you are likely more qualified to evaluate battery issues in electric vehicles than I am. I am a mere tinkerer who has used cells and batteries in many projects. I realize also some of what I have written to you is disjointed and might leave the wrong impression. It is likely that many worn out EV batteries still function just not well enough to be useful for their intended purpose.

I am not actually completely against electric vehicles either, there are many here that I have conversed with who are satisfied with their performance, although most have a second automobile or truck. They use these for longer trips or towing a trailer something that even the pickup trucks do very poorly.

It is appalling to me that when one divides the government subsidies that have already been spent by the number of electric vehicles that have been produced it comes to over approximately $50,000 per vehicle for what in most cases are play things for the rich.

I once put together an electric bicycle from parts that I purchased from China and a bicycle that I purchased at a department store. The brushless hub motor was rated at 800 watts and the bicycle would go approximately 30mph on flat ground. The expensive Lithium based batteries gave poor range and went bad fairly quickly despite never being charged to more than 80% or discharged to less than 20%. Because the motor was more powerful, the bike easily outperformed commercial electric bikes that were available at the time.

My assumption is that they were either stored improperly or were assembled from poor quality components. After that I used lead based gel cells which were far heavier but gave much better service. After I became bored with the project I sold it and made enough money on it to pay for even the expensive Lithium based batteries.

[Svartalfiar]

Imagine pulling up to a gas pump and the nozzle doesn’t fit your car!

Yeaif that happens you probably grabbed diesel instead of gas :p

[Yardstick]

Yep I’m no expert either — just trying to do some diligence to get a somewhat realistic picture of what’s going on with this EV stuff. The big bottom line issue is of course who decides whether EVs will be adopted, the market or the government. And whether you like EVs or not, the right answer is of course the market.

[Pontiac]

Your picture foretells an environmental disaster in progress caused by electric vehicles.

A lot like that filled with abandoned EVs would eventually be a Environmental Superfund site as the batteries slowly corrode and leak their toxic contents into the ground, polluting the ground water for centuries to come.

Billions of dollars would be needed to clean up a site like that.

If it could be done at all.