Posted on 07/28/2022 9:37:11 AM PDT by delta7
You jump too quick - I didn’t say when it was being constructed nor if or not it was on the drawing boards. But it does go hand in hand with China’s belt and road.
Over the past few years Russia’s been paying people to move to the Siberia area....additionally Russia’s building in the artic to create another trade route.
As long as the war goes on, Oil/natural gas prices will remain high. Russia will continue to laugh all the way to the bank.
Volume keeps dropping, and price is volatile -
Volumes to India/China/Asia have skyrocket and will rise even higher in coming months/years.
What is the population of Europe as compared to the massive populations/power demands of China, India, Indonesia and the rest of Asia who are eagerly snapping up Russian Oil/natural gas at great prices, and totally ignore Dementia Joe's funny “sanctions”.
Yeah?
How's that working out?
Is that why they are turning off hot water in Germany already, even with significant natural gas imports from Russia?
CORRECT!
some of that gas is at pre-contracted price.
“The explicit plan, announced two weeks after Russia’s latest invasion, and fully funded by European authorities, is to fully replace Russian oil and gas imports”
“How’s that working out?”
Quantitatively, it is on track. Last year, Russia provided Europe with 45% of its natural gas, and it is now down to 15%. The Europeans are taking exceptional measures to make this happen (like turning off hot water in public buildings in Hannover), and paying many billions of Euros for new permanent infrastructure for the alternative supplies.
It is a big job, and it is estimated to take about three years to complete, but most of the reduction is front loaded this year.
“ Volumes to India/China/Asia have skyrocket and will rise even higher in coming months/years.”
Russian oil volumes to China and India have both declined over the past four weeks. The peak in total Russian volume to them appears to have occurred back in May, when they offered discounts in excess of $30 per barrel, and could still get insurance to clear the ports. Purchases for new spot shipments going forward is now classified as a State secret in Russia, where they had previously been openly reported, like other countries.
Volumes to India and China are still reportedly up from last year, but still constitute only a small minority of Russia’s former tanker borne exports. Instead of a week to Rotterdam, those shipments take around two months, requiring ship to ship transfers en route.
Gas is a very different story.. Europe (including Turkey) accounted for about 85% of Russia’ natural gas exports last year. Delivering that product to market depends overwhelmingly on existing pipelines. Only a fraction can physically be diverted to terminal facilities that could liquify it for export. New pipelines to transport that existing production to Indian or Chinese markets would need to be constructed across several time zones, requiring a lot of capital investment and many years.
Most of the natural gas that formerly went to European markets will simply not be transportable to market.
Nope.
Last year, Russia provided Europe with 45% of its natural gas, and it is now down to 15%.
Which is not too relevant.
The EU, with a population of only 450 million, is close to a joke when compared to the gargantuan populations of China and India with a combined population of close to 3 billion.
Especially when it comes to something like energy or electric power generation or use, which is dependent on the population.
You continue to over estimate the power of the EU.
Russia has moved on to selling their energy/power generation products to Asia with their vast populations, most of who refuse to abide by Dementia Joe's “sanctions”.
Russian oil/gas exports to the huge Asian markets are only going to keep rising.
In a few years time, Europe will make up only a small percentage of total Russian oil/gas exports.
The demographics are just not in favor of Europe. Their population is too small and its not growing.
Gas is a very different story.. Europe (including Turkey) accounted for about 85% of Russia’ natural gas exports last year. Delivering that product to market depends overwhelmingly on existing pipelines. Only a fraction can physically be diverted to terminal facilities that could liquify it for export. New pipelines to transport that existing production to Indian or Chinese markets would need to be constructed across several time zones, requiring a lot of capital investment and many years.
Look at the longest natural gas pipelines in the world, with the longest in China, built by the Chinese with a length of a massive 5,410 miles. You think the Chinese are going to have a problem building gas pipelines from Russia to China?
West-East Pipeline. Length: 5,410 miles. Start: Xinjiang, China. ...
GASUN Pipeline (planned) Length: 3,100 miles. ...
Yamal-Europe Pipeline. Length: 2,608 miles. ...
Trans-Saharan Pipeline (planned) Length: 2,565 miles. ...
TransCanada Pipeline. Length: 2,005 miles. ...
Yes, eventually more pipelines to China will be built, and so will will more production capacity elsewhere in the world, to compete with Russian production.
Russia is on track to become heavily dependent on the Chinese market, while China is still diversified among several suppliers. China will drive favorable terms from their new satrap.
In the mean time however, Russia is likely going to go through some wrenching shortfalls, as well as some price spike windfalls.
Big price increases initially, but after that hump comes a few years of serious drought. Meanwhile, the other sectors of their economy, except perhaps agriculture and mining, will be imploding badly, and their brain drain will be severe.
They will likely be kept in that tar baby of the Ukraine War until their Military stocks are depleted to the point that it would take them years of heavy re-armament to threaten Europe again - years in which their budget will be suffering from the slow transition to new oil and gas customers, straining their capability to increase Defense budgets.
As oil prices go boom and bust, as they usually do, the next bust (likely the currently developing recession in major economies) is going to seriously hurt Russian revenues. Then the knives should be out in earnest, in domestic Russian politics.
“Quantitatively, it is on track.”
“Nope.”
Yep.
It is just a mathematical fact.
The plan is to reduce gas imports by 2/3rds by the end of the year, and oil imports by 90% (100% of tanker imports).
The gas imports are already down to the end of year goal level, and the oil imports are on track with tapered volumes as planned.
The gas volume reductions are ahead of schedule largely due to Russian reductions in supply. The Euros would likely buy those quantities if they were offered, to catch up on storage before Winter, but it would still leave them on track with the original planned reductions for the year.
The plan was also to reduce the Russian Ruble “to rubble”, quoting Dementia Joe.
Instead the Ruble hit record highs.I wouldn't bet too much on Dementia Joe's plans to cripple Russia if I were you.
“The EU, with a population of only 450 million, is close to a joke when compared to the gargantuan populations of China and India with a combined population of close to 3 billion.
Especially when it comes to something like energy or electric power generation or use, which is dependent on the population.”
Oil and gas use is not strictly by population.
India consumes about 60 Million cubic meters of natural gas per year, and the EU about 400. China consumes about 350 per year.
Europe also consumes a bit more oil than China, and almost four times that of India.
“The plan was also to reduce the Russian Ruble”
That is some other unrelated thing.
The European replacement of Russian oil and gas is an officially approved and fully funded program, that is meeting its schedule.
Energy and electricity use co relates with population, especially with gargantuan populations like China and India.
Plus Chinese GDP Ia already over FOUR times German GDP, with the gap still growing
I'd much rather have the Chinese/Indian market than the German/EU market any day.
Not much difference between EU and Chinese par head consumption. Only thing is, China has a population close to THREE TIMES that of the EU. And we haven't even talked about the even currently bigger Indian population yet.
Plus China and India have been growing much faster than the EU. Much better to have the Indian/Chinese market than the EU market any day.
Is that why they are turning off their hot water and lights in Germany right now?
Chuckle.
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