Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep
Going strongly counter to the prevailing narrative, Nate Silver predicts that the Democrats will INCREASE their House majority in November.
Key findings:
Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process.
So far, redistricting has created 10 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, six fewer Republican-leaning seats and five fewer highly competitive seats.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip between one and four seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like Texas.
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
If so, it will be a huge shock for all.
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Clown governors in the stupid party.
I’m no longer convinced ‘stupid’ explains it.
ABSOLUTELY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This.
A lot of us are in the same place.
Providing cover for massive vote fraud.
Dems have done a great job redistricting (aka Gerrymandering).
Silver seems to assume however, that Dems are going to keep all their current seats and add some with redistricting. If this turns out to be a ‘wave’ election (red wave) then a lot of Dem leaning seats will go Republican.
The fix begins with Nate Silver’s “statistical analysis” saying it’s going to happen.
The Uniparty relies on heads I win, tails you lose elections.
He expects them to hold serve and flip a handful as well. Dude is smoking crack or knows the fix is in. Could be both.
agreed....I think any incumbent dem anywhere that won their seat by less than 5% is toast, less than 10% is in trouble...
Forget redistricting. Thousands of ballot drop boxes all across the fruited plain will be stuffed in the dead of night, and Dominion software updated for the Congressional races.
GOP will twiddle its collective thumbs as usual.
SO, if redistricting provided for more “blue” district thru-out the US and, come election time, these districts actually vote “blue” candidates.
How many residents ACTUALLY voted?
Is the outcome just assumed and the local precinct captains just \make it so\?
And, does this benefit mail-in voting (adjudication and tabulation)?
According to polls, the GOP should gain.
Historically the party in the White House loses seats in mid term elections. Biden has some of the lowest approval ratings of any president in history at this point in his term in office.
Has Nate Silver been correct in previous predictions? Is he a liberal shill? What’s his track record? Because he’s predicting events which very few others agree with.
I guess old Nate is factoring vote fraud. If so, he’s probably correct.
The democraps suffered no consequences for blatantly stealing an election. The 2020 election will see them gain all over the country.
The democraps suffered no consequences for blatantly stealing an election. The 2022 election will see them gain all over the country.
I think he’s right, unfortunately. People here are convinced that we’ll get the majority, nothing to worry about, blah, blah…
But between the fact that way too many people actually will vote for the Dems because they somehow think they’ll get freebies, that there will be massive cheating, especially if they rev up the covid restrictions again, and that we’ve practically been redistributed into permanent loser status, I think our chances are pretty slim. But they do exist.
This means that we have to work really hard to get out the vote, quit our insane shoot-yourself-in-the-foot arguing, and remember our principles and not personalities.
He’s on the Democrats side
If this happens, even though it’s already underway, this country is done. They will never be able to undo the gerrymandering that’s been done. Once Dems get control of the gerrymandering in some other states, they’ll be able to control Congress for a long, long time.
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