Posted on 03/21/2022 10:02:27 AM PDT by Wuli
A credible deterrent is designed to alter a potential aggressor’s calculations of risk and reward. Vladimir Putin determined that the potential cost of invading Ukraine was relatively low, and on Feb. 24 he attacked. It will be the job of historians to try to understand why deterrence failed.
Deterrence involves two factors: capability and will. Capability means having the military strength to deliver intolerable damage to an adversary. Will is the determination to use that strength and deliver that damage.
.....snip..... By signaling that the U.S. had no intention of using its capabilities, the Biden administration seriously weakened their deterrent value.
The White House has consistently broadcast what it won’t do, removing a crucial component of deterrence: the ability to amplify risk through ambiguity. Mr. Putin now knows exactly how much to escalate the conflict because U.S. officials have told him exactly what the maximum U.S. response will be.
.....snip.......
Could this conflict have been averted with a more convincing demonstration of American resolve? We will never know for sure. Deterrence is an art, not a science. But the U.S. almost certainly faces a challenge if it wants to keep the peace in the future. Restoring the perception of American will to deter conflict may, ironically, require an even more forceful manifestation of that will on the battlefield. In a world of diminished deterrence, the desire for peace could make conflict more certain.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Because the West wasn’t practicing deterrence. It was practicing appeasement, and thus received the penalty due for that error.
One word: Biden
All the while poking at them
Agreed. The best deterrence against Russia is always drill, baby, drill and export.
WRONG! There was no invasion when Trump was President.
deterrence... wut, jo Brandon???
Biden is probably busy drawing up new threats and sanctions in between nap time and ice cream time to frighten Putin.
Russia Russia Russia 24/7.
Meanwhile, 2022 election thieves make preparations.
There will be a false flag event.
But don’t dare think anything but Russia.
One Word: E U R O M A I D E N
Agree. Peace is never achieved through appeasement and weakness. Ever. We’ll pay this bill in American blood. Sooner or later.
Donald Trump in the White House seemed to be a good deterrent.
Putin underestimated Ukraine’s and NATO’s resistance but rightly assumed our response would be an unmitigated cluster foxtrot. He was focused on the chaos of Brandon and probably got bad advice on everything else.
because of the series of one provocative or threatening action after another
plus, all the goading and insulting and urging effectively for the war
this war was created in the DeepState of USA govt
No, not Biden. He barely remembers his name.
It is, however, Soros and that lot of marxists that hang around with O’Bummer.
Will we ever recover from the /60’s?
Deterrence? How about not poking the bear? Setting up biolabs on its periphery, fomenting a coup to bring in a hostile government that has been attacking the Donbas for the last 7 years, flirting with EU and attempting to join NATO whereupon Russia might wind up facing missiles just minutes away sounds like deliberate provocation on Ukraine’s part in concert with the US.
They act as if Ukraine was just a completely innocent victim in all of this. Here’s an idea - if your country butts up against a superpower, you might want to think twice before allowing the superpowers enemies potential bases at their doorstep. Ukraine received plenty of warnings and knew what to expect, yet chose to go to war instead, a willing proxy of the US. I feel sorry for the Ukrainian civilians who probably had little say in the matter, Zelensky is the guy who sold them out. And for what, how has any of this benefitted the people of Ukraine?
“We will not engage”
Deterrence - You’re doing it wrong!
At a news conference the Secretary of Defense under Truman was asked about Korea. Offhand he said, Korea had no strategic value to the United States. Only weeks later, North Korea invaded the South. GWBush was asked why he so seldom spoke except at scripted events. He said, words to the effect, that every word he spoke was parsed out fifteen different ways by other countries and considered as an announcement of policy. He said he tried not to speak offhand because it could cause invasions or substantial policy changes in other countries that might require blood and treasure to address.
Biden stumbles around saying nonsense. Because of Biden’s waffling Putin felt emboldened to act now, before the midterms.
The debacle in Afghanistan.
Lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream project.
Putting sanctions on our own oil and gas.
The overall weakness, self-hating, confusion and incompetence of the Biden administration.
They were all aggravating factors that convinced Putin that now was the right time to carry out his dream of reuniting by force the territories of the old Soviet Union.
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