State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.

At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.

As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊

GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.

The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).

House Democrats in Districts Won by Trump
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
AZ-01	4 pts	R+2	Tiffany Shedd
GA-06	1.5 pts	R+8	Karen Handel
IL-14	< 4 pts	R+5	Jim Oberweis
IL-17	0.7 pts	D+3	Esther J. King*
IA-01	3.5 pts	D+1	Ashley Hinson
IA-02 (open)	4 pts	D+1	Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
IA-03	3.5 pts	R+1	Former Rep. David Young
ME-02	>10 pts	R+2	Dale Crafts
MI-08	<7 pts	R+4	Paul Junge
MI-11	>3 pts	R+4	Eric Esshaki
MN-02	>1 pt	R+2	Tyler Kistner*
MN-07	<31 pts	R+12	LtGov Michelle Fischbach
NV-03	1 pt	R+2	”Big Dan” Rodimer
NH-01	1.6 pts	R+2	Matt Mowers
NJ-03	>6 pts	R+2	David Richter
NJ-05	1 pt	R+3	Frank Pallotta
NJ-11	<1 pt	R+3	Rosemary Becchi
NM-02	~10 pts	R+6	Yvette Herrell
NY-11	<10 pts	R+3	Nicole Malliotakis
NY-19	<7 pts	R+2	Kyle Van De Water*
NY-22	<15 pts	R+6	Former Rep. Claudia Tenney
OK-05	~13 pts	R+10	Stephanie Bice
PA-08	<10 pts	???	Jim Bognet
PA-17	2.6 pts	???	Sean Parnell*
SC-01	13 pts	R+10	Nancy Mace
UT-04	<7 pts	R+13	NFL player Burgess Owens
VA-02	3.4 pts	R+3	Former Rep. Scott Taylor*
VA-07	6.5 pts	R+6	Nick Freitas*
WI-03	4.5 pts	Even	Derrick Van Orden*

House Republicans in Districts Won by Clinton
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
NY-24	-3.6 pts	D+3	Rep. John Katko
PA-01	-2 pts	D+2	Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
TX-23 (open)	-3.4 pts	R+1	Tony Gonzales*

* = military veteran

Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.

What can you do to help retire Nancy?

• Donate your time – either in person or by making calls from anywhere in the U.S. (maybe even globally – I’m not really sure). Contact your preferred campaign(s).
• Donate some $$. It doesn’t need to be much. Even a small donation pays for some bumper stickers/signs and shows the candidates they’re not alone.
• Share this thread and/or specific candidate info & links with friends and family.
• As mentioned earlier, please add additional competitive races to this thread.
• Pitch in a few bucks to the FReepathon.

Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.

If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.

[Coop]

Il-17 is on the original list of 30 Dems in Trump districts.

[Impy]

*itch was looking strong though.

She’s the chair of the DCCC, what a scalp she would be!!!!!!!

[AuH2ORepublican]

I thought that Bustos had a huge cash advantage and that the GOP wasn’t contesting the district very fervently; I had put her in the same category as Kind in WI-03: “Should be competitive based on the Trump numbers but the GOP doesn’t seem to think that it can win it.” Was a poll released that reveals her weakness?

[Impy]

Gunzberger tweeted a poll, I can’t find it but I think it was Bustos +6.

Cook just moved the race to lean D (from likely).

[Impy]

Here it is

https://capitolfax.com/2020/10/15/nrcc-has-poll-showing-bustos-on-the-bubble/

GOP poll, Bustos +5.

This a-hole Cook moved a bunch races toward the rats and this was the only one he moved towards us so there must be something real.

[Tunehead54]

Was it 2018 or 2016 when the pubbies had some 40 reps “retire” from all over - never-trumpers?

Pretty sure it it was 2018 leaving those districts with newbie pubs with little name recognition, experience, backers, etc.

Hope that’s been fixed now. ;-)

[Coop]

She’s the chair of the DCCC, what a scalp she would be!!!!!!!

Indeed. Maybe the best since Speaker Tom Foley went down in the '94 wipeout.

[Coop]

2018 saw a massive heading for the doors by senior GOP House incumbents, taking the normal mid-term headwinds and turning them into a hurricane.

[Coop]

Well, I feel kinda dumb. Just noticed my list of 30 only has 29 races. Need to find out which one I missed. Any help would be appreciated!

[Jane Long]

Excellent!!

Thanks for your hard work, on this, and for the ping/s.

LET’S TAKE BACK THE HOUSE!!

[AuH2ORepublican]

Coop, I went through the numbers compiled by the Kos Kids, and you’re missing NY-18, held by Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, which President Trump carried by 49.0% to 47.1%. The GOP nominee in NY-18 is Chele Farley: https://www.chelefarley.com/

[Coop]

Much obliged, kind sir, for finding my omission and providing the critical info!

[AuH2ORepublican]

You’re very welcome.

[Coop]

Pinging the group. I discovered earlier today that I can't count! Only listed 29 of the 30 Dem House seats in districts won by Trump. AuH2ORepublican was kind enough to find the missing race. Since I missed her the first time around, want to give some love to GOP candidate Chele Farley.

Coop, I went through the numbers compiled by the Kos Kids, and you’re missing NY-18, held by Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, which President Trump carried by 49.0% to 47.1%. The GOP nominee in NY-18 is Chele Farley.

This R+1 district was won by Obama 51-47 in 2012.

[Coop]

Another update. I received an E-mail today from Kimberly Klacik, running for Mfume's MD-07 district. She has slightly outraised the incumbent: $6.4M to $184K.

Maryland’s Klacik raised whopping $6.4 million after Trump shared viral ad; Mfume warns seat is ‘not for sale’

Klacik's E-mail mentioned a poll showing her trailing by 12 points, with 15% undecided. (I couldn't find it. Internal campaign poll?) Why is that something to brag about? If the poll is accurate, it's eye popping. Klacik lost the special election for this seat by an almost 3:1 ratio (74-25%). It's rated as D+26. For her to be that close (roughly 49-37%), with all that money still in the bank, is amazing. She is running a well organized, very aggressive campaign. I get 1-2 E-mails per day from her. Even if she doesn't win, she is changing the landscape for Republicans in urban districts.

[napscoordinator]

This map used to be much redder. I hope it returns.

[Coop]

That map is a prediction of the Democrats sitting in 277 (not their current 232) U.S. House seats, brought to us by a troll.

[ReelectTrump2020]

I am not expecting Klacik to win but, if she somehow pulls it off, she will instantly become my favorite Congresswoman. Favorite Congressman? Probably Crenshaw

[Coop]

If NH-02 is now competitive at the U.S. House level, then I have to believe that Trump has a great shot at winning NH (which he lost by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016). Pence’s rally is in Portsmouth, which is a heavily Democrat part of GOP-leaning NH-01 (although it’s suburbs are more marginal). Portsmouth TV is picked up in SW Maine, which is in the heavily Democrat ME-01, but could help Trump carry Maine statewide.

And this is what I've been waiting for. Think this announcement must have rolled on sometime today:

Pres. Trump to Deliver Remarks at a MAGA Victory Rally in Manchester, NH, 10/25/20

I shortened the title and added the date. Complete title is at the link. Details:
Sun, October 25, 2020
01:00 pm (EDT)
Doors Open: 10:00 am
Pro Star Aviation
8 Kelly Ave.
Londonderry, NH, 03053

As a reminder, Trump lost NH by less than half a point and lost Maine by ~2.7 points.

[napscoordinator]

Thank you. We need a troll buster.