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State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections
Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop

There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.

At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.

As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊

GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.

The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).


House Democrats in Districts Won by Trump

State/District 2016 Trump Margin Cook Rating Republican Candidate
AZ-01 4 pts R+2 Tiffany Shedd
GA-06 1.5 pts R+8 Karen Handel
IL-14 < 4 pts R+5 Jim Oberweis
IL-17 0.7 pts D+3 Esther J. King*
IA-01 3.5 pts D+1 Ashley Hinson
IA-02 (open) 4 pts D+1 Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
IA-03 3.5 pts R+1 Former Rep. David Young
ME-02 >10 pts R+2 Dale Crafts
MI-08 <7 pts R+4 Paul Junge
MI-11 >3 pts R+4 Eric Esshaki
MN-02 >1 pt R+2 Tyler Kistner*
MN-07 <31 pts R+12 LtGov Michelle Fischbach
NV-03 1 pt R+2 ”Big Dan” Rodimer
NH-01 1.6 pts R+2 Matt Mowers
NJ-03 >6 pts R+2 David Richter
NJ-05 1 pt R+3 Frank Pallotta
NJ-11 <1 pt R+3 Rosemary Becchi
NM-02 ~10 pts R+6 Yvette Herrell
NY-11 <10 pts R+3 Nicole Malliotakis
NY-19 <7 pts R+2 Kyle Van De Water*
NY-22 <15 pts R+6 Former Rep. Claudia Tenney
OK-05 ~13 pts R+10 Stephanie Bice
PA-08 <10 pts ??? Jim Bognet
PA-17 2.6 pts ??? Sean Parnell*
SC-01 13 pts R+10 Nancy Mace
UT-04 <7 pts R+13 NFL player Burgess Owens
VA-02 3.4 pts R+3 Former Rep. Scott Taylor*
VA-07 6.5 pts R+6 Nick Freitas*
WI-03 4.5 pts Even Derrick Van Orden*



House Republicans in Districts Won by Clinton

State/District 2016 Trump Margin Cook Rating Republican Candidate
NY-24 -3.6 pts D+3 Rep. John Katko
PA-01 -2 pts D+2 Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
TX-23 (open) -3.4 pts R+1 Tony Gonzales*

* = military veteran

Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.

What can you do to help retire Nancy?

Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.

If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020; house
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1 posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
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To: Jane Long; fieldmarshaldj; bort; Ravi; LS; deport; AuH2ORepublican; byecomey; Impy; ...

Ping


2 posted on 10/10/2020 6:28:40 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

bookmark


3 posted on 10/10/2020 6:31:50 PM PDT by dadfly
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To: Coop

We need to get the House back and hold the Senate for sure...


4 posted on 10/10/2020 6:34:21 PM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC.....Patriotically Correct)
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To: Coop

Excellent analysis.


5 posted on 10/10/2020 6:36:30 PM PDT by M. Thatcher
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To: Coop

Where are the Orange Co Ca districts? They were stolen in 2018, but I hope the Republicans have learned how to harvest.


6 posted on 10/10/2020 6:37:11 PM PDT by TJC (L)
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To: Coop

Boy I hope so.


7 posted on 10/10/2020 6:38:26 PM PDT by McGavin999 (Justice delayed is justice denied.)
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To: Coop

Illinois 14th District.


8 posted on 10/10/2020 6:38:33 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Coop
State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections: "Trump's coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist"
9 posted on 10/10/2020 6:39:02 PM PDT by M. Thatcher
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To: Coop

Good work, thanks a lot.


10 posted on 10/10/2020 6:39:06 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Get out of the matrix and get a real life.)
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To: Coop
It looks like the GOP has a great shot to take back the House. People have to see Pelosi is a wack job and they were not wanting that when they voted the Rats into office in 2018. I hope the GOP plays big time hard ball in those states that do ballot harvesting. Fight 🔥 with 🔥👍👍👍👍👍
11 posted on 10/10/2020 6:41:18 PM PDT by hawkaw
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To: TJC

The problem is that Republican play by the rules. All ballots harvested by Republicans will be counted and not tampered with prior to the count. The Democrats have a history of cheating. They will toss out some ballots and tamper with others.


12 posted on 10/10/2020 6:41:45 PM PDT by Mr. N. Wolfe
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To: Mr. N. Wolfe

“Evil always wins because good is dumb.”


13 posted on 10/10/2020 6:42:55 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings


14 posted on 10/10/2020 6:43:17 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: Coop

If we can convert just the 24 seats that are in R+x districts, that should be enough to flip the House and give Nancy the boot.


15 posted on 10/10/2020 6:43:58 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (COVID infects the Democrat brain and makes them drunk with power.)
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To: Coop

PA-17 is occupied by Rat Connor Lamb. He acts like some sort of moderate, but votes in lockstep. They gerrymandered a district for him prior to the 2018 midterms.

His district looks like it’d be solid red, but Beaver County isn’t all that populated and they made sure enough of Pittsburgh’s voters (overwhelmingly D) are present to insure that Lamb has an advantage.

There was a poll recently where Sean Parnell, Lamb’s opponent, was only trailing Lamb by a few points. That’s encouraging. Earlier this year, it was supposed to be a Lamb route. The Dems have dumped over $2M into this race ... They might be a little worried that the mask has fallen off of Lamb and people are seeing him as another vapid, empty suit communist controlled by Pelosi.


16 posted on 10/10/2020 6:44:43 PM PDT by edh
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To: Coop

Coop what do you think of Kim Kisleack in Baltimore she is working her heart out!! Does she have a chance??


17 posted on 10/10/2020 6:48:19 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: dp0622

Malliotakis(i) is looking good in the Cook Report.


18 posted on 10/10/2020 6:51:07 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: TJC

I am in CA. also the Dems will have a harder time harvesting all of our universities are CLOSED!! The state went to complete mail in voting which has me very worried we did get the seat back from the special election of Katie Hill ALWAYS been a very conservative district and STOLEN in 2018!, Special election pubbie took it back!! I had HIGH hopes until this business with ballots being mailed out everywhere not requested!! My mom received a ballot for my father who has been dead for 20 years!! Her neighbor purchased the house 2 years ago and he received 2 ballots for the previous owners!! I have very little hope in getting the seats back in CA. but I am PRAYING!!!


19 posted on 10/10/2020 6:56:07 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: Coop

Thank you for posting this.


20 posted on 10/10/2020 6:57:05 PM PDT by laplata (The Left/ProgressivesSivad have diseased minds.)
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