Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
In 2020, Trump IS on the ballot and his coattails will win many of those 2018 lost seats back and then some.
Don't be a tease! Where did you hear that? Trump lost NH-02 by 2.4 points (48.6%-46.2%). It's rated D+2. The Republican running in NH-02 is USAF veteran Steve Negron. He ran for this seat two years ago.
NH-01 is certainly competitive, as mentioned up at the top of this thread. Matt Mowers is the GOP candidate.
Agreed. I am really very surprised that there has not been more discussion about all the House races, the number of Dems in Trump districts, and even the fundraising numbers I posted earlier. Some folks talk about the Senate (although the thread I did on that is basically comatose), but most just want to talk about the Prez race. And based on FR one would hardly know there are any gubernatorial races.
Ah, the scuttlebutt probably came from a UNH survey that came out this past week, showing the Dem at 49%, with Steven Negron I think 4 points behind.
And on 10/21 VP Pence is appearing in Portsmouth NH. I don't think that was on the schedule yesterday, so that's encouraging to me. I still feel Trump can flip NH and possibly even capture all of Maine's votes. Both House seats, a Senate seat and the NH governor's race are all on the ballot.
Yeah. UNH. 4 pts.
I’ll be surprised if Biden wins NH.
THE state is antiWashington. And non-interventionist. Good match for Trump.
Biden got run outa the state in the primary.
If NH-02 is now competitive at the U.S. House level, then I have to believe that Trump has a great shot at winning NH (which he lost by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016). Pence’s rally is in Portsmouth, which is a heavily Democrat part of GOP-leaning NH-01 (although it’s suburbs are more marginal). Portsmouth TV is picked up in SW Maine, which is in the heavily Democrat ME-01, but could help Trump carry Maine statewide. (Coop, there is no way that Trump will carry ME-01, which went to Hillary by 10.54% in 2016; but winning statewide is doable—Trump lost by less than 3% in 2016—and the CD for the ME-02 should be in the bag.)
CT-5
Jahana can’t hold that seat long-term. Bad match for the district.
GOP will soon get it back. In a midterm.
GOp is severely underfunded in this state.
Coop, there is no such thing as a “former Marine”; once a Marine, always a Marine. So I believe that the correct appellation for Tyler Kistner is *retired Marine*.
The Kos Kids are all traitors, but boy can they crunch numbers. As you said, their presidential results by CD are the most accurate in the business.
Negative, Ghostrider. You're chatting with a former Marine. The phrase is "There's no such thing as an ex Marine." (Even that's not true. Lee Harvey Oswald and Jack Murtha are examples of ex Marines.)
"Retired" covers people who do at least 20 years or are medically retired (with pension). There are a lot of us who are simply Marine veterans (less than 20 years of USMC service).
If New Britain is placed in the Hartford CD (as it should be by all rights; stupid RINO Nancy Johnson wanted to keep her heavily D home town in her district, and then she lost in 2006 and the CT-05 still stuck with New Britain. (The same thing happened with RINO Chris Shays and even heavier D Bridgeport in the CT-04, although in Shays’s case he wasn’t even from Bridgeport, but moved there and asked that it be kept in the district!)
I stand corrected, and will quietly go back to my corner in embarrassment.
I agree with you that ME-01 is probably out of reach. I keep mistakenly saying all of Maine’s votes, but I mean three (ME-02 and the 2 state votes). His margin of loss in “deep blue Maine” was only 2.7%.
Nonsense! Come out of your corner, and keep me honest on Maine. LOL
Spanberger's GOP challenger raises over $1.8 million in third quarter
That challenger is veteran Nick Freitas trying to win VA-07.
Sabato’s Crystal gonad say Iowa Senate is lean rat. I’m highly skeptical.
New Minnesota polls, Trafalgar I belive has a dead heat. While MinnPost has Biden +5, and Rat Senator Smith only +4. That’s a very important Senate race. I believe Trump and Lewis can win and make Chuck Schumer crap his pants.
MN-2 election BTW is on by court order, the state law that said it had to delayed because the weed candidate died has been deemed retarded.
What’s your source on NH-2, Pete? You’d think if one was in play it would NH-1.
bookmark
I didn’t see anyone mention but Cheri Bustos (IL-17 narrow Trump seat last time) is in real danger.
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