[bort]

When Obama won in 2008 and 2012, blacks out-voted whites as a percentage of registered voters. In both years, roughly 71% of black registered voters in NC voted. In 2016, without Obama on the ballot, black turnout dropped: 64% of black registered voters cast ballots. White turnout was roughly 68% in 2008/12 and increased to 71% in 2016. Keep in mind that polls (and personal experience) show that black women, who vote at much higher rates than black men, are the most fearful of the China Virus. According to other data, 81% of blacks who have requested mail-in ballots were super-likely to vote anyway compared to 70% of whites. In short, while superficially Republicans seem to be at a disadvantage, an honest translation of this data strongly suggests that black turnout is more likely to drop to 2004 levels (58%) than hit Obama-era levels of 72%. The folks who have voted by mail--and who will vote by mail--are older, whiter, and more Trump-friendly than Democrats (and unaffilateds) in general. Keep in mind that many older, white "Democrats" cross-over to vote Republican. In North Carolina, you can predict the outcome based on the racial composition of the electorate, not strictly on Rs vs. Ds. Discuss.

[nhbob1]

That’s OK. The Dem ballot harvesters will make sure they each send in 3 ballots...just to make sure

[bort]

Ping

[al_c]

Just wait. All of those black votes by mail will mysteriously turn up after the election numbers are counted.

[Ravi]

Thanks. I'm sure you saw this also from Dr. Blitzer. I believe you were referencing this yesterday:

So are registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters "cannibalizing" their voters who are likely to cast ballots? That's one way to look at it; another way is that these are likely very partisan (even among the unaffiliated) voters who want their votes banked and don't care about what happens during the rest of this election; as I noted earlier, they are "done" with this election. As we get into the heat of the electoral battle this month, and with presidential debates and a contested Supreme Court nomination fight to highlight an already bitterly divided electorate, these numbers may provide a sense of where things are heading. But to gauge anything more until the voters have completely spoken on Election Day, and the results are fully compiled and certified, is a fool's errand this year. But again, as I noted earlier: it is 2020, after all.

[noiseman]

Republican mail-in ballots are lagging dem mail-ins by huge margins everywhere they are currently permitted. No mystery there: We don’t trust the postal service and this whole vote by mail charade, and are thus holding out to vote until the last minute to limit the time available for dems to tamper with our votes. I live in Colorado, where we have been all mail-in for a while now, and I always hold our ballots until Election Day or at most a day or two in advance, and then I hand deliver them to the drop box at our polling place. I can’t be the only one.

[Conserv]

Not voting is there way of voting for Trump.

[Zhang Fei]

[In North Carolina, you can predict the outcome based on the racial composition of the electorate, not strictly on Rs vs. Ds.]

---

IIRC, in southern states, whites vote at the rate of 70% for the GOP. If the rest of the white population voted this way, the GOP would own Congress and the White House. (Sigh ...)

[kickstart]

Considering the state of public education, many people do not know how to read and comprehend.

[byecomey]

Note, black vote is disproportionately represented in a number of key swing states (MI, PA, WI, NC).

I am surprised by this as well because I thought we’d see 2008-level turnout after BLM. Key question is whether Black people will vote by other methods but I suspect no. There won’t be a Souls to Polls this year.

If you know SQL, do you want me to update my NC SQLite database and upload it for you? Assuming you haven’t already done something similar. I loaded it with 2016 data and registration data as well.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Stamps unaffordable?

[MayflowerMadam]

Considering the reading skill level of some people, voting is haaarrd.