Posted on 09/12/2020 10:56:19 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The nineteenth named storm of the busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season developed off the southern Florida peninsula. The storm track forecast carries Sally across the southern FL peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Key West Radar Loop
Mobile AL Radar Loop
New Orleans Radar Loop
Buoy Obs Near Storm Track
Looking more like Sally is going to be in your neighborhood.
Location...About 140 MI SSW of Panama City FL
...About 185 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving...NW at 8 MPH
Minimum Pressure...996 MB
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
ropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show
that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone
is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to
earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb
flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49
kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity.
Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has
jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to
be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast
U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which
should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a
relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the
ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops
over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause
Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and
then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east
of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the
latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of
the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary
overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the
northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally
is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the
northern Gulf Coast during the next few days.
The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over
Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft
combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air
mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until
Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the
high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is
forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by
72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days.
The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension
of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama
border.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. It is too early to determine where Sally’s center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally’s
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC’s average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.
2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans,
with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.
4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Location...About 120 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 175 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving...WNW at 9 MPH
Minimum Pressure...996 MB
Location...About 115 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 165 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Moving...WNW at 8 MPH
Minimum Pressure...994 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
per recon data the center is trying to reform again back ENE of the 7am position
Tropics are crazy-active right now: P, R, S, T storms all active, plus a likely U storm emerging off the African coast... at least the blob in SE Texas is likely to move inland before getting its act together.
plus a likely U storm emerging off the African coast..
—
there is no U name on the list...
By the way that wave is now Vicky
So many storms out there now it looks like the cast list of a reality show.
By the way that wave is now Vicky
—
correction TD21 now Vicky according thew tropical tidbits site..I assume NHC will officially upgrade her soon
that wave may be Wilfred
then on to the Greek alphabet
Elsewhere, The eye of Hurricane Paulette crossed directly over Bermuda early this morning.
The conspiracy theorist inside me always wonders why every storm post katrina is projected to hit new orleans from the getgo. Just long enough to get in media and stirring about.
This looks like it’s heading straight for ms
Supposed to curl and come across us here in Central Alabama as a depression later in the week. 5-15 inches of rain forecast here, but minimal winds.
ropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80
degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center
this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the
east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of
deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in
banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center
found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative
stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and
that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent
minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down
several millibars from the first fix on this flight.
Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear,
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to
lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the
recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more
confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or
tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the
storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast
Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will
probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is
near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is
forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a
slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the
circulation will remain over water for some time.
Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over
the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west-
northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to
northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of
the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has
been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been
nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models
but a little west of the various consensus aids.
Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally,
the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm
surge and freshwater flooding event.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. It is too early to determine where Sally’s center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally’s
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC’s average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.
2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.
4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
per recon and NWS radar
really getting its act together now
Mobile and western FL panhandle may get right side for 48 hours
Hurricane Warning Issued for the AL Coast...Sally creeping along at 6 MPH...
1100 AM EDT Update
Location...About 140 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 185 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Moving...WNW at 6 MPH
Minimum Pressure...991 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
A timely and fitting name.
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