Posted on 07/07/2020 8:30:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The grand economic question of our time is not the coronavirus, nor the lockdown, but how quickly do we put this all behind us? We know we're in a recession, and we know what has caused it, obviously enough. What we don't know is whether this time around will be like the recession of 1920, wherein by 1921, we couldn't quite see that it actually even happened, or whether it will be more like the events starting in 1929, when it took at least a decade to claw our way back.
The answer will tell us a lot about the election in November, but it's much larger than that. We're talking about the lives of nearly 330 million people.
There are two different things to consider when developing a forecast. For one, modern economies are horrendously complex things, taking centuries to develop. Interrupt them, and we get knocked back years, or potentially decades, and have to rebuild all over again. The other is that the economy stops dead pretty much every Friday night, and we've no great problem starting 'er up again Monday morning. Ultimately, the longer the recession lasts, the more likely we are to have permanent damage, putting us closer in line with 1929 than 1920.
So, the question becomes, how long will it last? As Niels Bohr pointed out, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. As with everything economic, we only have fragmentary information, but things are looking good. ADP is a payroll processing firm that makes monthly economic assessments based on its own clients. ADP assessed June's gain would be 2.3 million new jobs. The official Bureau of Labor Statistics number a few days later was 4.8 million new jobs. That's known in the trade as a blowout number.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
ALSO, WATCH THIS — THE PURCHASING MANAGER’s INDEX
Everything has to be made from something. If we ask producers, who buy products to make products, how things are going, then we get a good idea of what will be produced in the immediate future.
In an index where anything above 50 is a gain, the 52.6% for U.S. manufacturing in June’s numbers shows expansion. This is up from April’s and May’s very low levels, though we’re not back to where we started at all.
For services, the index stands at 57.1% for June. This is another blowout number, even though we’re still not back to where we started. On a more positive note, services are 80% of the U.S. economy, so that higher number is vastly more important than the manufacturing one, which composes only 10% of the economy. That services number is also the fastest expansion since the number was first created in 1997.
NYS’s unemployment rate is 14.5%.
But the enemedia never finds the time to talk about that for some reason.
https://citylimits.org/2020/07/01/nyc-faces-deep-and-enduring-unemployment-says-report/
Meanwhile, Cuomo and the state legislature keep digging...
Recession? Suuurrre... The last jobs numbers were up almost 5% for the month, and today the DOW is above 26,000 again.
Correction, last months jobs were up almost 5M jobs, not 5%
I plan on upping the Durable Goods numbers this month. Need new appliances (20+ years old, only one good burner on range)
If Biden gets elected, God Forbid, it’s time to go back to ‘Slow Roll’ as in Obama times. The ‘Transformation’ planned is not a good thing. Expect a severe drawback if the Senate and House go to the Dems.
Keep the Underground Economy going is best.
Only because the Democratic Depression is pushing it out the door.
A good article would point out the unemployment rates for Dem vs Repub states. I’ll bet it is dramatic.
Written by someone with zero grasp of economics. I’m betting on 2 steps forward, 1 step back scenario. Couple good economic numbers followed by one bad one, with the economy getting better and better each month. So much so, even thought the market is too frothy, I took a position in something today.
That’s the funny thing about appliances, especially these days. For us, most of the time its a panic purchase. I could lose my job but I still need an oven to cook things in. Pretty much immune to recessions.
That certainly was the case when our Fridge died right at the beginning of the lockdown, when nothing was in the stores.
I was lucky to find a freezer, I think it was the last one available in the entire Metroplex.
Mine are like Frankenstein, as long as i can get the parts to fit.
“It’s Alive!”
You know when i can no longer find parts.
Trying to find the ones i pick out on a store floor, I gotta feel the merchandise.
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