Posted on 05/28/2020 8:19:26 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
The sustained plunge in global oil prices has brought deep, unexpected shifts on the geopolitical landscape, with impacts felt in the Arctic and the Middle East, and in the fortunes of the American heartland and the future of the Russian-Chinese strategic alliance.
A U.S.-engineered market truce has helped energy prices rebound slightly this month after flatlining in April, but analysts say reverberations will likely be felt for years to come as they chip away at the foundational international partnerships in the post-World War II era and create new alliances and rivalries.
Analysts say there is no way the U.S. and its international position will avoid alterations from the oil markets, no matter who sits in the White House the next four years.
The Trump administrations public pressure on Saudi Arabia this spring to slash oil production sparked tensions with Riyadh that reportedly led to the White Houses decision this month to pull American Patriot missile systems from the kingdom.
The health of the U.S.-Saudi alliance looms large in national security circles. In recent years, U.S. officials sought Saudi support for the administrations Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and help with the mutual goal of containing Iran. But Americas own ambitions to be a global energy player, built on a fracking production revolution that all but ended Washingtons dependence on foreign suppliers, could take a major hit if oil prices stay below $50 a barrel indefinitely.
The U.S. could well find itself on the outside looking in as green energy gains momentum and depresses demand for American shale oil. Such an outcome could further strain the relationship between the U.S. and key European allies such as Germany and France, which have largely stuck by an Obama-era emissions reduction deal that President Trump abandoned long before...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
The article ignores the change from coal to gas as fuel for power plants. Those are still being built. Demand in the US could grow if manufacturing comes back.
Shale gas will still be needed.
Heck, our current emission limits coming out of a chimney are tighter than the air people breath on the streets in Chinese cities!
I grow weary of the overused phrase shale oil. Most of the plays in the Permian are just tight sandstones juxtaposed with shales as their source.
“The U.S. could well find itself on the outside looking in as green energy gains momentum and depresses demand for American shale oil.”
That statement if proof the authors are stupid.
Oil is cheap and is likely to remain so for a long time.
Right, green energy is very expensive as the Germans learned all too well.
Once the US and Europe reopen, the price of oil will soon be back at $50 a barrel. We just have to work thru some of this glut first.
A U.S.-engineered market truce has helped energy prices rebound slightly this month after flatlining in April, but analysts say reverberations will likely be felt for years to come as they chip away at the foundational international partnerships in the post-World War II era and create new alliances and rivalries.
The fracturing of the EU and the bleeding out of the PLO terrorist apparatus will be the most significant outcomes.
The Trump administrations public pressure on Saudi Arabia this spring to slash oil production sparked tensions with Riyadh that reportedly led to the White Houses decision this month to pull American Patriot missile systems from the kingdom.
Uh, no.
The U.S. could well find itself on the outside looking in as green energy gains momentum and depresses demand for American shale oil. Such an outcome could further strain the relationship between the U.S. and key European allies such as Germany and France, which have largely stuck by an Obama-era emissions reduction deal that President Trump abandoned long before...
PMS-TDS (Partisan Media Shills / Trump Derangement Syndrome) malarkey -- unless the California Demagogic Party succeeds in undermining the company, Tesla is going to crush it in Europe (more than it is already doing) and in the US. And the electricity to operate electric vehicles doesn't grow on organic trees. The US left-hand-drive market (and indeed, the world market, like India) will wind up flooded with used luxury cars as Europe offloads its gasoline-burners in their current (heh heh) phase-out of such vehicles.
OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004
...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.
US Imports of Crude oil (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Year Quantity (thousands of barrels) Value (thousands of US dollars) Unit price (US dollars) Average daily US$ per € exchange rate Unit price (euros)2001
3,471,066 74,292,894 21.40 0.8952 23.91 2002 3,418,021 77,283,329 22.61 0.9454 23.92 2003 3,673,596 99,094,675 26.97 1.1321 23.82
As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.
Iran has been trying for years to have Oil trade in a currency other than US Dollars. It would be unlikely that the Saudis would facilitate this for anything other than some “test or experiment” on its feasibility.
The Euro Currency, as we know it, may not be around much longer.
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