Skip to comments.Why was the U of M Covid Model so "Wrong" About Predicting Deaths through Memorial Day?
Posted on 05/27/2020 2:58:38 AM PDT by JohnRand
Earlier this month, the University of Minnesota School of Public Health released projections from a revised coronavirus computer model that said deaths might double by Memorial Day.
That didnt happen.
In fact, to a layman, it doesnt even look close.
Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm and a key official involved in the model both acknowledged Tuesday that the short-term death projections of the model are notably higher than the reality but both defended the value of the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...
Because scientists are also afflicted with TDS.
> while the number of deaths projected by the model is higher than reality, the direction is the same: up.
As precise as a coin flip. *slow clap*
More likely, we will see Nobel Peace Prizes awarded for modeling, ala Paul Krugman, who is always wrong and Al Gore who has made millions off global warming.
The leap folks will need to make is that models, like their ugly sisters, polling, are bunk designed to manipulate rather than inform.
“while the number of deaths projected by the model is higher than reality, the direction is the same: up.”
Right. Deaths from viral outbreaks go up at first and then they come down.
(Is Chauncey Gardener heading that outfit?)
I hope so but I think the powers that be have a lot - that is, everything - invested in keeping the hysteria going and maintaining the fiction that it was necessary to shit down and destroy our entire country for something that never happened and was never going to happen in the first place. People are going to be really angry when they realize this, so they dont want us realizing it.
I’m sorry. I make typos too. But I just think “dwaths” is funny.
/going to hell
Give me liberty, or give me dwath!
Hey lets come out with a model of skewed numbers and see if they believe it
Lefties demand we “follow science”. And the science changes every day.
Be vewy, vewy quiet. I'm huntin' Jedi.
More like wanted the funding which is controlled by Libs.
“He’s dwead, Jim.”
What? Or are they just stabbing in the dark and not asking and answering questions about WHAT precisely they are getting wrong.
This is not science. It's BS and those who are listening to it are fools.
Someone somewhere must know what they are doing. They can still get wrong answer, but at least they are searching for why their answers are wrong.
It’s most likely the same pack of clown that keep predicting climate change.
Projections instead of data....the way to keep the Panic Porn going
Always wrong but never in doubt
I would encourage everyone to go to the source and read the entire article before jumping on the “see, quarantine didn’t work and I don’t like it” bandwagon. The article actually goes into some detail about the modeling of the spread of disease and the various challenges that modelers face.
Diseases spread according to a specific mathematical function, called a growth curve. However, many variables affect that curve. Things such as how well people comply with the lockdowns and observe social distancing and proper hygiene—e.g., high or low compliance—affect the rate of growth. The model tried to account for various scenarios, from immediately removing all restrictions to slowly removing them and came up with a range of death tolls.
The article did NOT provide any evidence that the lock-downs didn’t work or were unnecessary. On the contrary, it acknowledged that those do, in fact, affect the rate of spread of disease.
Dwath before Dwithonor.
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