COVID-19 Update - 04/05/2020

My own workup | 04/05/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

Please FReep Mail me regarding the ping list
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COVID-19 Update

As of 04/04/2020 23:44 PDST (taken at 23:59)

Good morning everyone.

Thank you for dropping in to check out this Update.

Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.

Commentary³: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Our National COVID-19 Dynamics, Will Mimic Global Ones

When COVID-19 first entered our thoughts, it was isolated in China. For
weeks that's where it lived and thrived. As the numbers in China slowed,
they wound down pretty good. Then came the nations outside China.

Just when it seemed like there was hope on the horizon, the cases outside
China blew up. Trends heading in good directions were quickly turned around.
At one point 59.918% of global cases had been resolved. That figure resides
today at 25.921%, and has resided between 25.534% and 26.332% the last seven
days now. That's 26 reports. Each day it struggles, and struggles to break
out upward. This will be repeated with numbers down below.

During the press conference earlier today with President Trump and his
Team, the issue of certain areas quietening down, while others break out
was addressed. As hot spots in the United States wind down, it's likely
others spots will heat up, somewhat like Outside China took over from
China's numbers. One day it will look like we have a pretty good handle
on things, and then we may go sideways for a while.

This isn't a big deal. Just be aware of it. Don't be surprised when it
happens. We really don't know how severe it will be. It may not amount
to much, and won't likley be any worse than our peak in the nation
elsewhere, but then we can't say for sure.

Number of Nations With Higher Numbers than China's, Grows

Some folks are going to be inclined to go postal when I address numbers
with the name China in the descriptors. Folks, we all know the value or
lack thereof, of China's numbers. Please spares us another lecture.
The numbers are a reference point. None of us thinks they represent
anything close to China's actual cases. Thanks. Moving on...

China is no longer the nation with the most declared cases, and hasn't
been since March 26th, around 14:40 PDST, when the USA's numbers
expanded beyond their declared ones. Since that time four other
nations have joined us to eclipse China's declared numbers. They are
Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. [ Listed in thier current order
of cases, and yes Spain has come from behind to overtake Italy ]

There is a case progression chart for these nations below. It covers
their growth in five day increments from 02/20 through 04/04. They
will be addressed there alphabetically.

Daily Global Declared Cases, Now Eclipses China's Declared Cases

Over time China declared 82,574 cases to date. Starting the day before
yesterday on 04/03, the daily global growth in declared cases, has been
larger than that figure for two days.

Again, the China numbers are only a reference point. We know they are
not a factual statement of China's overall Case load.

Despite that reality, I found these points interesting, and thought some
of you might also.

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Yesterday's Growth Rate Ebbed a Bit

Declared Cases in the United States

             EOD    DAY'S  INCR'SD 
DATE       CASES    GRWTH   GROWTH - compared to the day before
-
03/20     19,624    5,374      539
03/21     26,747    7,123    1,749
03/22     35,206    8,459    1,336
03/23     46,442   11,236    2,777
03/24     54,893    8,789   -2,427
03/25     60,197   13,966    5,177        
03/26     85,991   16,794    2,828
03/27    104,839   18,848    2,054
03/28    124,665   19,826      978
03/29    143,025   18,360   -1,466
03/30    164,620   21,595    3,235
03/31    189,624   25,004    3,409
04/01    216,721   27,097    2,093
04/02    245,559   28,838    1,741
04/03    278,458   32,899    4,061
04/04    312,237   33,779      899

Yesterday was our largest single increase yet, and we grew at a rate of
899 cases more than the growth the day before. At least that's better
than the 4,061 increase in growth the day before that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, & Resolutions in the United States

DATE     FATAL     RECOV    RESOLV
-
03/20      252       152       404
03/21      329       176       505
03/22      396       178       574
03/23      428       178       606
03/24      581       354       935    
03/25      753       619     1,372
03/26    1,301	   1,868     3,169
03/27    1,704     2,622     4,326
03/28    2,229     3,231     5,460
03/29    2,488     4,562     7,050
03/30    3,170     5,507     8,677
03/31    4,055     7,251    11,306
04/01    5,112     8,878    13,990
04/02    6,095    10,403    16,498
04/03    7,403    12,283    19,686
04/04    8,454    14,825    23,279

Currently we have 312,237 active cases in the United States.
23,279 of them have been resolved.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow

Once again, lets take a moment to address the U. S. portion of the
global declared cases.

The U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global populace. There are two
figures I'm tracking with regard to this, the Declared Cases and the
Active Cases.

Here is what the movement for those two categories looks like.

       DECLARED     DAY'S     ACTIVE     DAY'S
DATE      CASES      CHGE      CASES      CHGE
- 
03/20    7.125%    1.297%    10.934%    1.552%
03/21    8.704%    1.579%    13.000%    2.066%
03/22   10.377%    1.673%    15.343%    2.343%
03/23   12.170%    1.793%    17.411%    2.068%
03/24   13.053%    0.883%    18.369%    0.958%
03/25   14.657%    1.604%    20.190%    1.821%
03/26   16.140%    1.483%    21.454%    1.264%
03/27   17.530%    1.390%    22.920%    1.466%.  
03/28   18.742%    1.212%    24.126%    1.206%
03/29   19.762%    1.020%    25.289%    1.163%
03/30   20.936%    1.174%    26.777%    1.488%
03/31   22.045%    1.109%    27.885%    1.108%
04/01   23.110%    1.065%    29.120%    1.235%
04/02   24.160%    1.050%    30.482%    1.362%
04/03   24.886%    0.726%    31.057%    0.575%
04/04   25.935%    1.049%    32.400%    1.343%

Yesterday I was happy to see what looked like a dip in growth, but
today it's back. Still, if you look two days back, the numbers do
continue on a snail's pace toward less growth each day.

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Global Cases Increased to Record Level Today, Outside M/L China

Back to still more numbers...

               EOD      DAY'S   INCR'SD
DATE         CASES     GROWTH    GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20      194,148     30,824     5,185
03/21      225,932     31,784       963
03/22      257,820     31,888       104
03/23      297,172     39,352     7,464
03/24      341,530     41,462     2,110
03/25      390,378     48,848     7,386
03/26      451,006     60,628    11,780
03/27      516,124     65,118     4,490
03/28      583,107     66,983     1,865
03/29      641,588     58,481    -8,502
03/30      704,051     62,463     3,982
03/31      777,887     73,836    11,373
04/01      855,389     77,502     3,666
04/02      933,937     78,548     1,046
04/03    1,036,395    102,458    23,910
04/04    1,121,349     84,954   -17,054

Looks like we had some sort a data reporting glitch the day before
but the numbers I recorded are what they are. Today we're up over
them again, so there's not much to say except, "Ouch!" Those numbers...

Fatalities, Recoveries, & Resolutions Outside M/L China

DATE      FATAL      RECOV     RESOLV
-
03/20     8,110     16,393     24,503
03/21     9,740     19,995     29,735
03/22    11,305     25,485     36,790
03/23    13,060     28,470     41,530
03/24    15,347     35,256     50,603
03/25    17,643     40,467     58,210
03/26    20,785     48,084     68,869
03/27    24,466     56,801     81,267
03/28    27,522     64,777     92,299
03/29    30,714     76,342    107,056
03/30    34,515     89,989    124,504
03/31    39,052    102,121    141,163
04/01    43,949    118,092    162,041
04/02    49,838    135,204    185,042
04/03    55,611    150,014    205,625
04/04    61,466    170,309    231,775

Currently there are 1,121,349 active cases outside M/L China.
231,775 cases have been resolved.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

DATE       FRANCE     GERMANY        ITALY       SPAIN
-
02/20          12          16            3           2
02/25          14          18          322           9
03/01         100         117        1,128          76
03/06  --     653  --     670  --    4,636  --     401
03/11       2,284       1,966       12,462       2,277
03/16       6,650       7,272       27,980       9,942
03/21      14,485      22,364       53,578      25,496
03/26  --  29,566  --  43,938  --   80,589  --  57,786
03/31      52,819      68,180      105,792      94,417
04/04*     90,853      96,092      124,632     126,268 (4 DAYS, NOT FIVE)

I started the review on 02/20, because some of these nations had
been at that same level for a few days. Then the next day things took
off.

Take note of Spain's meteoric rise to catch up and pass Italy there.

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China numbers make up 00.26% of today's cases globally

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day on 04/04/2020, there are:

 1 nation(s) with 300,000 plus (take a bow...)
 2 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999
 4 nation(s) with  50,000 to  99,999
 3 natiom(s) with  20,000 to  49,999
 7 nation(s) with  10,000 to  19,999
 4 nation(s) with   5,000 to   9,999
37 nation(s) with   1,000 to   4,999

There are currently 58 nations with a 1,000 count or above...

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

           DECLAR     DAY'S  RESOLVED    DAY'S   PCT DEC    ACTIVE
DATE        CASES    GROWTH     CASES   GROWTH  CS RESOL     CASES
-
03/20 -   275,434 -  30,911 -  99,655 -  3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21     307,280    31,846   105,425    5,770   34.309%   201,855
03/22     339,259    31,979   113,540    8,115   33.467%   225,719
03/23 -   381,621 -  42,362 - 118,369 -  4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24     423,121    41,500   127,538    9,169   30.142%   295,583
03/25     472,109    48,998   136,178    8,640   28.845%   335,931
03/26 -   532,788 -  60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27     598,070    65,282   159,533   12,784   26.675%   438,537
03/28     665,164    67,094   171,077   11,544   25.720%   494,087
03/29 -   723,740 -  58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30     786,291    62,551   203,926   17,848   25.933%   582,383
03/31     860,181    73,890   220,713   16,085   25.659%   639,468
04/01 -   937,783 -  77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02   1,016,401    78,618   264,935   23,344   26.066%   751,466
04/03   1,118,921   102,520   285,706   20,771   25.534%   833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 -  85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855

Sometime prior to noon PDST yesteray, the number of Resolved Cases

went over the 300,000 mark. There were 26,362 cases resolved
yesterday. That's 3,018 higher than the previous high reached two
days prior. This number will now grow larger each day, with a
few exceptions here and there. We are reaching two weeks after
the relatively large numbers of declared cases started coming in.

Congratulations to the surviving veterans of this fight, and our
condolences to those lost in the battle, and their families.

After a valient effort, that Percent of Declared Cases that have been
resolved, continues to be unable to break out upward. It peaked
at 59.918% on March 7th, 29 days ago. Again, it has been hanging around
stalled in the top half of the 25.534% to 26.332%^ bracket for seven
days, or 26 reports now. You can see how rapidly it dropped there
and then stalled in this range.

Fatalities, Recoveries, and Resolutions Globally, Incliding M/L China

DATE      FATAL      RECOV     RESOLV
-
03/20    11,399     88,256     99,655
03/21    13,049     92,376    105,425
03/22    14,706     98,834    113,540
03/23    16,563    101,806    118,369
03/24    18,919    108,619    127,358
03/25    21,308    114,870    136,178
03/26    24,077    122,672    146,749
03/27    27,761    131,772    159,533
03/28    30,852    140,225    171,077
03/29    34,018    152,042    186,060
03/30    37,820    166,088    203,908
03/31    42,354    178,359    220,713
04/01    47,261    194,330    241,591
04/02    53,160    211,775    264,935
04/03    58,937    226,769    285,706
04/04    64,795    247,273    312,068

Currently there are 1,203,923 active cases including M/L China.
312,068 cases have been resolved.

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population
base represent one case. I'm also showing what percent of each
population base is infected at this time.

ENTITY              PER 1 CASE   DAY BEFOR     DAY CHGE
-
Globally      :          8,712       9,325        -613
Outside China :          8,735       9,353        -618
The U. S. A.  :          1,143       1,277        -134
-
ENTITY         INFECTION LEVEL   DAY BEFOR    DAY CHGE
-
Globally      :       00.0107%    00.0100%    00.0007%
Outside China :       00.0139%    00.0130%    00.0009%
The U. S. A.  :       00.0875%    00.0783%    00.0092%

Look at the population saturation in the U. S. compared to others.
Not liking that...

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)

               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰ (alphabetical / cases)

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: Interntional Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization

LINK   Baidu (China source: figures outside seem okay, but inside no > IMO)

[DoughtyOne]

Gotcha...

Makes me angry.

[GOP Poet]

bookmark

[familyop]

That’s a good summary and good information. You might also find this interesting from a FReeper who is a retired epidemiologist: good information for personal planning.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3831814/posts?page=233#233

Also, the people most vulnerable might be those with diabetes, including the many who are diabetic and unaware of it (overweight, obese). Maybe that’s why we’ve see more young people and women more severely affected in the States than in some of the other countries.

COVID-19 Disease: ORF8 and Surface Glycoprotein Inhibit Heme
Metabolism by Binding to Porphyrin
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/itempdf74155353254prod/11938173/COVID-19_Disease__ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin_v2.pdf

[MayflowerMadam]

“The CDC screwed up on testing”? What does that mean? “

I don’t know for sure, but a couple things reported were (if I understood correctly): (1) They had a test that they put out too early that turned out to be “bad”, so had to recall it and start over; and (2) CDC “forbade” other entities besides themselves to research, invent, and distribute tests.

I could be totally wrong, and I guess there are articles from a month or so ago that go in to more detail.

[wastoute]

If you go back you can find where I posted, it seems like a month ago now. “The thing that strikes me is this ‘first guy’, the doctor who initially recognized this as new, unique, and urgent did so on the basis of his experience with 4 patients. He was ‘impressed’. Which immediately brought to my mind how impressed I was by my first malaria patient.”

These patients were obviously “Seriously ill” patients who were rapidly decompensating and deteriorating passed any salvation.

Although I am not seeing patients any longer and have no direct, “first hand”, personal observations it sound like this is what the ER docs and ICU docs are seeing. Patients who are just transitioning from the “worst part” of “mildly ill” are suddenly deteriorating over a course of hours into very stiff lung ventilated patients that are very difficult to manage.

From what I am hearing this is what it sounds like to me.

[familyop]

The enormous testing effort wasn’t done early enough, because there were operations problems (bad test kits for one). But it is happening now. And no, there aren’t so many positives in the population beyond what’s been found.

Look at the number of positive cases compared to the large number tested here. Those many negatives were traced from positive cases they had contact with.

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthcondiseases/communicable/novel-coronavirus/results.php

That was also explained here by someone qualified to do so.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3831814/posts?page=233#233

Some of my neighbors have also been quarantined because of contacts with positives, been tested and found to be negatives.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.

These are the people who may likely die in the next few days. If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.

Here are the numbers:

Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206

I will update the numbers each day on your posting so you do not have to.

[Jim Noble]

Thanks for the great work you are doing with the numbers.

Just to clear some of the fog around testing: HOW MANY TESTS we have done compared to another country is meaningless.

We do not even have the ability to test rapidly when the diagnosis is in question, which leads to overconsumption of ICU negative pressure rooms and critically short supplies of PPE.

But that’s not the problem.

The problem is our failure to find and to isolate all the presymptomatic infections, and to isolate THEM to prevent the explosive spread we are seeing now. Countries that have stayed ahead of the curve and stayed in business (Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) have tested huge fractions of their populations and intervened on spreaders before they got to third and fourth generation spread.

Take little New Hampshire, which has around 500 cases this morning. We do not know how many infections not yet showing symptoms those 500 people have caused. We don’t know where those presumably thousand or so asymptomatic spreaders live, where they go, what they do, or how many people they infect before they themselves develop symptoms.

NH has geographic and demographic advantages not present in NY NJ CT or Massachusetts. We have socially minded people sitting at home sewing masks for their local hospitals and making do with their stockpiled food. Everybody is more polite than normal, nicer than normal. Children in local communities are writing letters to our hospitals to thank us,

The only thing we don’t have is what we need, which is information to stop the 2-10 people getting infected today from each infected person without symptoms.

Leaders saying “we have tested more people than any other country” are saying something meaningless. If we had done 50 million tests by March 5 we might have gotten ahead of this thing. Now, we won’t, and it’s not because of the advisory panel, its because of FDA resistance, and I would not be surprised if that resistance had a political motivation.

[ballplayer]

Just to compare,So called regular flu 2018-2019 cases,between 37.4 and 42.9 million people contracted the flu,those led to between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalization and 36,400-61,200 deaths.
2019-2020 flu illnesses 39million-55 million,18 million-26 million medical visits,400,000-730,000 hospitalizations,
24,000-63,000 flu deaths.
Don’t know if Corona virus numbers should be added to this year’s flu numbers of not,you tell me.
Corona virus total cases 311,658, recovered 14,967, deaths 8,492.
So is all this necessary or what?

[SuperSonic]

How many bones are there in a giraffe’s neck? Just like humans, giraffes have seven neck vertebrae. For giraffes, however, each one can be over 10 inches (25.4 centimeters) long!

[Jim Noble]

CDC “forbade” other entities besides themselves to research, invent, and distribute tests.

Not that it matters any more (until the trials), but it was FDA all the way and still is that is responsible for both the testing disaster and the PPE problem.

I was so excited last night when I read (work has me 24 hours behind) that FDA had been forced to allow KN95 masks that were rotting on the piers and at airports to enter the country, only to learn that they have to be stored in FDA-approved warehouses and that it takes 90 days to get approval of a warehouse.

The more I get into this, the more it appears that the many, many things that do not make sense where regulators keep intervening to keep us unsafe and/or ignorant (two sides of the same coin, really) are down to #resistance.

So, so many deep staters throughout the government. So, so much hatred for the President (and, curiously, especially for Pence).

They just won't do ANYTHING if it could have adverse political consequences for their faves, and some of them are clearly monkeywrenching as hard as they can.

We need to put bandanas on some of them and send them to NYC to wash COVID patients for a week or so to make any progress at this point.

[wastoute]

Thank you! So my point is we have to remember something that gradually I slowly began to understand after decades of practicing clinical medicine is, “Numbers are THE THING. Numbers are an abstraction that attempts to define THE THING.” So, and thank you for the illustrative information that proves my point because based on # one would expect a giraffe to have a neck no longer than mine.

Sorry. It was a rhetorical trap and it snared you nicely. Did you honestly think that after doing a 7 year Neurosurgery Residency I did not know how many bones there are in a giraffe neck? Seriously?

[Jim Noble]

Word on the street is that one of the the remdesivir salvage trials has been stopped, is being analyzed, and will be announced as a “go” soon, AND that Gilead has enough remdesivir for an EUA expanded access program.

If true, it could lead to testing and use of other nucleoside analogs, which are in plentiful supply.

Because rapid resistance occurs in other RNA viral infections treated this way, when to start and how to use remdesivir will not become apparent for a while.

[DoughtyOne]

I understand and agree with your thoughts.

We had H1N1 so we knew what was possible. Did we do
anything to be ready? Hell no!

It is shocking how unprepared they were.

Abbott took just a few weeks to come up with a rapid testing
system. If the CDC had put it’s mind to it and commissioned
work over the last ten years, we would have something that
would give test results in seconds, not days.

My family member that had to be tested, waited about five
days for the results.

South Korea came up with testing almost immediately. We
took weeks after that.

It honestly makes me quit angry.

WTH were they doing after mid January until mid March?

I don’t have a single clue.

One thing I’m sure of, is that those professionals had
even less of one than I did.

Any idiot with an IQ of 10 (I know, I know...) would have
known by mid January that virus was coming to the United
States, and they were still rolling out 1990s(?) tech until mid March.

I honestly think some folks should be charged with criminal
negligence, and endangering the nation’s populace at large.

[Jim Noble]

One thing you are missing (perhaps) is that all public health people, from the best to the worst, are employed at the end of the day by politicians (Democrats AND Republicans), and that, if you work for a politician and want to keep your job, you must:

1) Never say or do anything to make anyone mad or sad
2) Never say or do anything to discourage shopping
3) Never say or do anything to keep kids from public indoctrination centers, BECAUSE
4) You must never prevent women from going to work because otherwise, they would be available to strengthen their families’ home life, their children would watch less TV, and they all would consume less product.

[freedom1st]

The mortality rate continues to go up. As more testing is done I expected this rate to decline. This is troubling. This virus is more deadly than I first thought it would be.

[henkster]

Thanks for posting the “serious critical” numbers. I think they are extremely important as they show where medical resources are under the most strain.

Question: Are your number for new admissions each day or total numbers in critical care?

[exDemMom]

Nice analysis, thank you for posting.

I have only been keeping track of worldwide numbers and making a couple of graphs. The reason I have focused on worldwide is that there are many places with very poor healthcare; Covid-19 can sweep uncontrolled there, causing many deaths. It also presents the risk that even if the developed countries control the virus such that no new cases emerge, it can sweep right back in from those third world cesspools. If I were doing my own analysis, I'd break out northern hemisphere from southern hemisphere countries. This is because the common cold is seasonal, and this killer cold may behave in a similar fashion. If that is so, then new cases will decrease in the northern hemisphere as spring progresses into summer, but they will increase in the southern hemisphere as it approaches winter.

Anyway, here are my graphs, updated daily at 23-25 hour intervals:

Covid-19 4/5/2020

The trendlines on this graph show that the case load continues to expand exponentially, with a very strong R square value showing that the data aligns very well with the theoretical numbers. I do not have projected case numbers to compare it to, so cannot give an assessment of how well the control measures are working. The worldwide death rate is now 5.41%, and 73.8% of cases remain unresolved. These numbers differ from the US numbers.

Daily change in case count.

I have not done any further analysis on the daily changes.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””””Question: Are your number for new admissions each day or total numbers in critical care?””””

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These are the numbers posted by Worldometer at the end of each day. It is the total number in critical care. I am not aware of any website that is posting the number of new admissions to critical care each day.

[SueRae]

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