Posted on 04/05/2020 2:52:56 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/04/2020 23:44 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for dropping in to check out this Update.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary3: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Our National COVID-19 Dynamics, Will Mimic Global Ones
When COVID-19 first entered our thoughts, it was isolated in China. For
weeks that's where it lived and thrived. As the numbers in China slowed,
they wound down pretty good. Then came the nations outside China.
Just when it seemed like there was hope on the horizon, the cases outside
China blew up. Trends heading in good directions were quickly turned around.
At one point 59.918% of global cases had been resolved. That figure resides
today at 25.921%, and has resided between 25.534% and 26.332% the last seven
days now. That's 26 reports. Each day it struggles, and struggles to break
out upward. This will be repeated with numbers down below.
During the press conference earlier today with President Trump and his
Team, the issue of certain areas quietening down, while others break out
was addressed. As hot spots in the United States wind down, it's likely
others spots will heat up, somewhat like Outside China took over from
China's numbers. One day it will look like we have a pretty good handle
on things, and then we may go sideways for a while.
This isn't a big deal. Just be aware of it. Don't be surprised when it
happens. We really don't know how severe it will be. It may not amount
to much, and won't likley be any worse than our peak in the nation
elsewhere, but then we can't say for sure.
Number of Nations With Higher Numbers than China's, Grows
Some folks are going to be inclined to go postal when I address numbers
with the name China in the descriptors. Folks, we all know the value or
lack thereof, of China's numbers. Please spares us another lecture.
The numbers are a reference point. None of us thinks they represent
anything close to China's actual cases. Thanks. Moving on...
China is no longer the nation with the most declared cases, and hasn't
been since March 26th, around 14:40 PDST, when the USA's numbers
expanded beyond their declared ones. Since that time four other
nations have joined us to eclipse China's declared numbers. They are
Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. [ Listed in thier current order
of cases, and yes Spain has come from behind to overtake Italy ]
There is a case progression chart for these nations below. It covers
their growth in five day increments from 02/20 through 04/04. They
will be addressed there alphabetically.
Daily Global Declared Cases, Now Eclipses China's Declared Cases
Over time China declared 82,574 cases to date. Starting the day before
yesterday on 04/03, the daily global growth in declared cases, has been
larger than that figure for two days.
Again, the China numbers are only a reference point. We know they are
not a factual statement of China's overall Case load.
Despite that reality, I found these points interesting, and thought some
of you might also.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Ebbed a Bit
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH - compared to the day before
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
Yesterday was our largest single increase yet, and we grew at a rate of
Fatalities, Recoveries, & Resolutions in the United States
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV - 03/20 252 152 404 03/21 329 176 505 03/22 396 178 574 03/23 428 178 606 03/24 581 354 935 03/25 753 619 1,372 03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279Currently we have 312,237 active cases in the United States.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
Once again, lets take a moment to address the U. S. portion of the
global declared cases.
The U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global populace. There are two
figures I'm tracking with regard to this, the Declared Cases and the
Active Cases.
Here is what the movement for those two categories looks like.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
Yesterday I was happy to see what looked like a dip in growth, but
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Level Today, Outside M/L China
Back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
Looks like we had some sort a data reporting glitch the day before
Fatalities, Recoveries, & Resolutions Outside M/L China
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV - 03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775Currently there are 1,121,349 active cases outside M/L China.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/04* 90,853 96,092 124,632 126,268 (4 DAYS, NOT FIVE)I started the review on 02/20, because some of these nations had
Take note of Spain's meteoric rise to catch up and pass Italy there.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.26% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/04/2020, there are:
1 nation(s) with 300,000 plus (take a bow...) 2 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 3 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 7 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 4 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 37 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999
There are currently 58 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
Sometime prior to noon PDST yesteray, the number of Resolved Cases went over the 300,000 mark. There were 26,362 cases resolved
yesterday. That's 3,018 higher than the previous high reached two
days prior. This number will now grow larger each day, with a
few exceptions here and there. We are reaching two weeks after
the relatively large numbers of declared cases started coming in.
Congratulations to the surviving veterans of this fight, and our
condolences to those lost in the battle, and their families.
After a valient effort, that Percent of Declared Cases that have been
resolved, continues to be unable to break out upward. It peaked
at 59.918% on March 7th, 29 days ago. Again, it has been hanging around
stalled in the top half of the 25.534% to 26.332%^ bracket for seven
days, or 26 reports now. You can see how rapidly it dropped there
and then stalled in this range.
Fatalities, Recoveries, and Resolutions Globally, Incliding M/L China
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV - 03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068Currently there are 1,203,923 active cases including M/L China.
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population
base represent one case. I'm also showing what percent of each
population base is infected at this time.
ENTITY PER 1 CASE DAY BEFOR DAY CHGE - Globally : 8,712 9,325 -613 Outside China : 8,735 9,353 -618 The U. S. A. : 1,143 1,277 -134 - ENTITY INFECTION LEVEL DAY BEFOR DAY CHGE - Globally : 00.0107% 00.0100% 00.0007% Outside China : 00.0139% 00.0130% 00.0009% The U. S. A. : 00.0875% 00.0783% 00.0092%Look at the population saturation in the U. S. compared to others.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200 (alphabetical / cases)
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: Interntional Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
LINK Baidu (China source: figures outside seem okay, but inside no > IMO)
Seems there could be a couple of ways to look at it. If the virus was a herd there looks to be a lot of green pasture left. Globally. The reason IMHO we are “worst hit” is statistical. Most countries can’t do near the testing we do.
I agree with your green pasture comment. The interesting
thing is though, these things don’t seem to continue
grazing even though there is pasture left.
We just don’t see anything approaching 50-100%, when viruses
like this come knocking at our nation’s door, break in, and
have their way.
As for testing, we are showing some very large numbers to be
sure, but my take on it is that per capita, we have not done
nearly the testing other nations have.
I welcome anyone who has another view on that.
I don’t mind being corrected.
It stands to reason that like all epidemics it will top out when between 40 and 60% of the population will encounter the virus.
Informative 10 minute video from a Dr. on the front lines in NYC. Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, and social distance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwx3JMRTz8U
I just don’t think it is possible even with our tech and logistics to do testing and “catch up” to the virus in real time. So we really will never know what # of new cases today is. It just can’t be done.
Thanks. I wasn’t aware of that figure.
Do you know what the H1N1 infection rate was?
Bookmark
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there
were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304
hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths
(range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the
(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
Not offhand. Offhand I don’t know a “figure” for any epidemic. For me #s are just a way to describe behavior. You may know how many bones are in a giraffe’s neck, I don’t. I know they are tall.
The CDC’s early screw ups really put us behind the curve on testing. Hopefully that is about to be remedied in a big way and we can catch up.
Good article on this from the MIT Technology Review.
Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615323/why-the-cdc-botched-its-coronavirus-testing/
I keep reading “The CDC screwed up on testing”? What does that mean? They were supposed to detect an epidemic in some new hi tech way that is better than the “old fashioned way?” When people start dropping dead?
You mean per capita testing we have not done as much. In sheer #s we have smoked the world and I don’t think we have nearly “caught up” to what’s out there.
I realize that.
What we have is a reference point that isn’t iron clad.
We can’t change that. This is all we have.
I do think our government and health care institutions are
trying to keep tabs on what is going on.
In China by contrast, I think they scooped people up and
got rid of them without documentation.
I don’t think that sort of thing will happen here.
As you mention, it’s just impossible to capture all the
data.
What you touch on is what prompted me not to be quite as
critical of China as some others were.
Yes, China hid things and I’m pretty sure they did some
stuff civilized nation’s don’t do. None the less, we know
you can’t capture all the data.
We can’t do it either.
I’ve been trying to tell people that for days now. The “new testing” the CDC is doing isn’t so much to “see where the virus is” but more to “see where resources are needed”. At first glance those may seem to be the same thing but they really aren’t. If all you want to know is where resources are needed you only need a fraction of the testing. IMHO.
I think the CDC is kind of using the old, “But the other parents let their kids...”, type of excuses here.
Center for Disease Control
It’s their job one. FAIL!
Can you please add me to your Ping list?
bookmark
Go see my post here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3831688/posts?page=32#32
for some insight into priorities at the CDC for the last 10 years.
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