Why Iceland’s approach to coronavirus testing may be better than America’s

Fortune.com ^ | March 27, 2020 | Vivienne Walt

[brookwood]

“Over 6% of those tested already have it “
The article states that people were offered a free test. It is likely that many more people who decided to take the test had symptoms. If you were perfectly healthy why would anyone bother to take a test? So the 6% overall infection rate is biased high. We need a random sample of a large population to be tested to find the true infection rate.

[Mr Rogers]

“The article states that people were offered a free test. It is likely that many more people who decided to take the test had symptoms.”

True. But it is also true that these are the only stats available where having symptoms is not a prerequisite. And in fact, half of the infected have shown NO symptoms.

So while the 6% figure is likely to be high, it is also very likely that “the denominator” - the number who have or already had coronavirus - is much larger than the current numbers given in any other country.

Currently, Iceland has tested 16,484 people. 1,086 have tested positive. 25 have needed hospitalization. 2 have died. That suggests a different picture than what we’re hearing from any other government.

If the hospitalization rate is 2.5%, THAT would be pretty significant! If the hospitalization rate is 2.5%, then the death rate is likely to be far under 1%.

[Mr Rogers]

“Watch someone smoking a cigarette.”

That will be tough in my part of Arizona. But I’ll spot you that one. Avoid anyone coughing, sneezing, complaining of fever - or smoking!

[Lurker]

Just observe how far that smoke travels. That was my point.

Sorry I wasn’t more clear.

Best,

L

[Mr Rogers]

Back when I was around smokers regularly, most frequently BLEW smoke out. That is not regular breathing. Someone blowing their exhaust of ANY kind deliberately and hard around me would be reason for me to iincrease separation.

Also, smoke is likely (IMHO) to be easier to eject than droplets of virus.

Not saying transmission is IMPOSSIBLE without symptoms, but I think the 10-15% figure for asymptomatic transmission sounds reasonable. It seems VERY obvious to me that someone sneezing and coughing would represent a much greater threat.

BTW - I know one person in serious danger of dying from coronavirus. The wife hasn’t caught it. He refused to be tested until he collapsed. That would also suggest casual contact with an asymptomatic person is not a high risk activity. But his symptoms weren’t coughing or sneezing, just increasingly severe weakness in his limbs.

[SunkenCiv]

... the country has tested 11,727 people -- about 3.2% of its population of 364,000.... As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested...

BTW, 3.2 percent of the US would be more than 11 million. Iceland is an island. People flying great-circle to Europe or back will see it out the window of their airliner if the pilot thinks to remind them to look.

Partisan Media Shills update.

[SunkenCiv]

That suggests the virus is not nearly as deadly as we think.

/bingo

[Svartalfiar]

If I’m missing something, I’ll love to hear why this is not good news. If half of the people have no symptoms at all, then our denominator for calculating death rates would cut our death rate in half - because we only test the half showing symptoms.

This is both good and bad. The good, obviously, is that the mortality rate is much lower.

The bad thing is that being more widespread, means a lot more will catch it. So even though the percentage of deaths is lower, the high total amount means there will be more deaths numerically. If 10% of 1M people are dying, that's only 100 people. If 1% of 100M people die, that's a thousand deaths.

[Svartalfiar]

Just how are people without symptoms - no sneezing, no coughing - supposed to propel the virus through the air 6, 12, 24 feet?

I’m not buying everyone’s worst case scenarios. Even a virus needs some means of getting from A to B.

Just because you're not coughing doesn't mean you aren't expelling some liquid from your lungs. Your breath is decently humid, so just that could be spreading a virus. Likewise, saliva/eyejuice/any other bodily fluids get around. People touch their faces then other surfaces/other people all the time.

Sure, symptoms like cough or sneezing or open wounds definitely make transmission easier, but they aren't the only ways your body expels some bacteria or virus particles.