Posted on 03/29/2020 5:45:18 PM PDT by Mr Rogers
"But what might authorities learn if people were tested randomly instead? Some early clues may be found in the tiny country of Iceland. So far, the country has tested 11,727 peopleabout 3.2% of its population of 364,000....
By screening healthy as well as sick people, say scientists, Iceland and deCODE have assembled a far more accurate picture of COVID-19. And the results are sobering. The virus had a much, much wider spread in the community than we would have assumed, based on the screening of high-risk people, deCODEs founder and CEO Kári Stefánsson told Fortune by phone from his office in Reykjavík on Wednesday. As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested in the country. Of those, 15 are in hospitals, two of them in intensive care....
DeCODEs model stands in sharp contrast to that of the U.S. and most countries in Europe, where only those who show clear signs of infection have been tested for the coronavirus.
(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...
“Over 6% of those tested already have it “
The article states that people were offered a free test. It is likely that many more people who decided to take the test had symptoms. If you were perfectly healthy why would anyone bother to take a test? So the 6% overall infection rate is biased high. We need a random sample of a large population to be tested to find the true infection rate.
“The article states that people were offered a free test. It is likely that many more people who decided to take the test had symptoms.”
True. But it is also true that these are the only stats available where having symptoms is not a prerequisite. And in fact, half of the infected have shown NO symptoms.
So while the 6% figure is likely to be high, it is also very likely that “the denominator” - the number who have or already had coronavirus - is much larger than the current numbers given in any other country.
Currently, Iceland has tested 16,484 people. 1,086 have tested positive. 25 have needed hospitalization. 2 have died. That suggests a different picture than what we’re hearing from any other government.
If the hospitalization rate is 2.5%, THAT would be pretty significant! If the hospitalization rate is 2.5%, then the death rate is likely to be far under 1%.
“Watch someone smoking a cigarette.”
That will be tough in my part of Arizona. But I’ll spot you that one. Avoid anyone coughing, sneezing, complaining of fever - or smoking!
Just observe how far that smoke travels. That was my point.
Sorry I wasnt more clear.
Best,
L
Back when I was around smokers regularly, most frequently BLEW smoke out. That is not regular breathing. Someone blowing their exhaust of ANY kind deliberately and hard around me would be reason for me to iincrease separation.
Also, smoke is likely (IMHO) to be easier to eject than droplets of virus.
Not saying transmission is IMPOSSIBLE without symptoms, but I think the 10-15% figure for asymptomatic transmission sounds reasonable. It seems VERY obvious to me that someone sneezing and coughing would represent a much greater threat.
BTW - I know one person in serious danger of dying from coronavirus. The wife hasn’t caught it. He refused to be tested until he collapsed. That would also suggest casual contact with an asymptomatic person is not a high risk activity. But his symptoms weren’t coughing or sneezing, just increasingly severe weakness in his limbs.
... the country has tested 11,727 people -- about 3.2% of its population of 364,000.... As of Thursday, 737 have tested positive, or roughly 6.3% of all people tested...
BTW, 3.2 percent of the US would be more than 11 million. Iceland is an island. People flying great-circle to Europe or back will see it out the window of their airliner if the pilot thinks to remind them to look.
Partisan Media Shills update.
That suggests the virus is not nearly as deadly as we think.
/bingo
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.