Skip to comments.Why the 2020 presidential campaign polls are misleading
Posted on 02/13/2020 11:35:03 PM PST by knighthawk
One of the biggest mistakes that political analysts, especially those who spend a lot of time on Twitter, often make is they assume voters are as engaged in the process as they, or their audiences, are.
The reality is that, largely due to media fragmentation, the average (more accurately, median) voter is even less educated in comparison to us news junkies, who have never had more information instantly available than what we can easily access today.
Consequently, at least half of the massive electorate for a presidential general election has been, whether we like it or not, paying very little, if any, attention to the race at this point. Any information they have gleaned from all the media coverage of specifically the Democratic contest has been largely by accident, and their base of knowledge would be roughly that of what the least enthusiastic person at the Super Bowl party you just attended possessed about the Kansas City Chiefs.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Nine months is forever in politics—and national polls are absurd at this stage.
However, the mass media just loves the stuff—it is pre-packaged “news” so they don’t have to do actual work.
Seriously, anyone who has not made up their mind by now is a complete idiot.
“...anyone who has not made up their mind by now is a complete idiot.”
Yeah, so...what’s your point?
I see the evidence of this on any given day. I work with an intelligent woman who didn't even know about the homeless problems and crap in the streets in California until she visited a friend in Arizona last week. It never occurred to her that black families might have been harmed by liberal policies. Another associate takes CNN as gospel. I talk to people all the time that say totally uninformed things and you just have to bite your tongue most of the time.
30+ years ago people could look at both parties and see positives and negatives in each. Most every candidate seemed to have the country in their best interest. Those days are over.
I long for the days when you’d see bumper stickers, yard signs, buttons and t-shirts on people expressing their opinion and preference.
The goal of the dems has been to conquer and divide and they’ve done a nice job of it. Families and friends are drifting apart.
This minute I’m wearing a “Trump Winery” shirt that I got there a few weeks ago. Even this gets nasty glares. I have a red cap that I wear that’s from an organization my daughter was once in that has 0 to do with politics. Even that gets people staring at the front to be sure it doesn’t feature the “horrifying” MAGA on it. And the looks I get are like “yeah, I guess that’s ok”. Like I passed the test and they won’t attempt to pull it off my head after all. Which would be a major error on their part.
What Americans know is that they have jobs, are getting bigger tax refunds, and there 401Ks are swollen.
They would like to keep it going. Thats how America votes.
I talked to a recruiter the other day who handles mid to high level candidates. He said it has *never* been like this. Unemployment has not been this low in the history of the Republic.
He said overall were at 3%. In the recession proof sectors, like healthcare, its more like 1-2%.
At the moment, he has 2500 jobs to fill.
His candidates are not unemployed. All of them are seeking to upgrade into better positions.
We are in a Golden Age. Dont let any silly nonsense make you believe otherwise. Its white noise.
Imagine if President Trump told his supporters to answer every phone call they get for a week just so they can answer the pollsters. The Dems in the media would go insane (or insaner) trying to spin that.
Yep - and so many are waiting for others to tell them what to do - endemic in the Dem politics.
Made a quote by “The Good Doctor” seem very relevant - he was talking to some gal who did web blogs and let her audience decide to take the more cosmetic, but more dangerous option for a surgery - “We are the accumulation of the decisions we make - you let others make your decisions for you, so you are really nobody”
And a Dean Koontz book says this about actors who meddle: “Somebody who can be anybody is really nobody”
Imagine if President Trump told his supporters to answer every phone call they get for a week just so they can answer the pollsters.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
I STILL think that PDJT should sign an EO directing EVERYONE to breathe in and out every few seconds.
Amazing the results we may see with people going AGAINST his excellent advice/order.
“and national polls are absurd at this stage.”
Actually I believe they are absurd at any stage. If my recollection is correct, Hitlery believed all the polls that she’d win, right up to the end, then after her loss, and even today. Based on “it’s her turn” and biased polling, she thinks she was the legitimate winner of 2016.
But I agree, it’s pre-packaged news they can cherry pick and spin while sitting at their desks without having to go out and do any real work.
All through October 2018 I was predicting D+40 in the House. The posters who didn't call me names posted stuff like you just did.
Same with my red Ferrari cap.
What do you foresee happening this year?
I’d love to hear if you have a prediction this far out from November.
With all the crap phone calls people get now, telemarketers and scammers, who talks to pollsters?
My elderly Democrat-voting mother just discovered that Buttigieg is gay. She likes Bloomberg no doubt due to the constant and honestly rather Trump-sounding tv ads. She actually agrees with the majority of what Trump stands for but due to the daytime talk shows, the evening news and the local newspaper to which she still subscribes she thinks Trump is crazy. Id imagine there are a lot of people like that.
FORGET POLLS. THEY LIE! Just ask president Hillary.
Too soon - way too soon - for a prediction, except in general: it will be close.
I think this article makes an unstated and highly questionable assumption that voter will have made themselves any more educated come Election Day.
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