Posted on 02/11/2020 5:21:10 AM PST by TigerClaws
The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.
His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.
“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.
He will tell the WHO meeting that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked – because if so, other countries should think about adopting them.
The Geneva meeting brings together more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some participating by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan. “With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks. To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said.
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
Someone on FR suggested sinking the ship. I forget which thread. So far as I know, no one has officially suggested this.
It was after Pasteur, you dipstick.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers Tuesday the Fed is monitoring the coronavirus outbreak, "which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy." https://t.co/eJuQloQvpS— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) February 11, 2020
You make a great point.
I read last week about a book that some professor has coming out that the ‘green’ solution is to kill off all the humans on the planet. We had our time and we blew it.
If you think that’s nutty (it is), check out this group.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYThdLKE6TDwBJh-qDC6ICA
The Extinction Rebellion. Humanity = the enemy. Need to kill off a good portion of the population (especially anyone over 60) and remake society.
Never let a crisis go to waste...
Sorry about the double ping to this thread. I’ve asked the Mod Squad to pull post 63
The HEPA air filters are available at Big Box stores, but a) they are more expensive b) if they don’t seal well, their effectiveness is greatly diminished.
Don’t you think that cruise ships would filter the air supply before blowing it into rooms?
In any case, even if the passenger in the adjacent cabin is coughing and sneezing, any contaminated air is going out, it is not being mixed with the fresh air coming in.
https://www.cdc.gov/norovirus/about/prevention.html
The CDC’s suggestions for norovirus will also work against coronavirus.
No one has suggested it - but it's what would have been done in a simpler time.
What I DID say is that containment of the virus, if it is to happen, will involve many innocents suffering and some losing their lives, and I don't think we are up to it.
Would love to be proven wrong, however.
Restricting H/K residents to their 1000 apartments in one building makes for one large petri dish.”
...if it cannot be controlled
Everyday it seems more and more that is where we are. The ability to "control" it passed about six weeks ago.
That’s what worries me. There aren’t that many ICU units available in the developed world - then number is scaled to normal expected critical case load. If this things gets out of control, those ICUs get filled up fast and then what?
Can you explain why? We don't have a clue what they are spraying. Some say it's nothing but a bleach solution. But who knows?
I read a report that said forget the masks, they do nothing. However, leave your shoes outside and treat them like you’re handling a kidney from an Aides patient. Handle them very carefully then washing your hands for a full minute afterwords. They know something, Coronavirus is living on the concrete and the ground
Ebola required transmission of bodily fluids. This virus is airborne. Big difference.
1% would be a dream compared to the Death:Recovered ratio or even the CFR of the CCP numbers—which are not true.
“Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.”
Right now, you can’t find N-95 masks anywhere, and that’s a SIMPLE supply chain that has already been disrupted.
What happens when doctors and nurses start getting sick from this (maybe not at the hospital - they have kids who could get it in school and bring it home).
What happens when workers at drug and medical supply plants start getting sick?
What happens when truckers and grocery store and oil field workers start getting sick?
Simple answer: you have one or more vital supply chains that are FUBAR’d, and some of them spill into other areas, and once knowledge of the disruption occurs you have the panic meter going further toward (or into) the red.
We had better pray hard and act to quarantine people who MIGHT have this disease or contact with those that do/might, or a world of schiff is coming. Geez, Johnny Carson caused a weeks-long toilet paper shortage in the late ‘70s with a simple joke.
The thing is that we don’t know what this would look like in the wild of a Western Country because we’ve been able to contain it so far.
The West is about six weeks to two months behind the China Timeline.
The issues start if there are enough cases to fill the local ICUs and Intermediate Care facilities.
When that happens, we can start making some judgements about the west.
I am hoping that we do not get to find out.
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