Who Wants This War With Iran?

Speaking on state TV of the prospect of a war in the Gulf, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei seemed to dismiss the idea.

"There won't be any war. ... We don't seek a war, and (the Americans) don't either. They know it's not in their interests."

The ayatollah's analysis -- a war is in neither nation's interest -- is correct. Consider the consequences of a war with the United States for his own country.

Iran's hundreds of swift boats and handful of submarines would be sunk. Its ports would be mined or blockaded. Oil exports and oil revenue would halt. Air fields and missile bases would be bombed. The Iranian economy would crash. Iran would need years to recover.

And though Iran's nuclear sites are under constant observation and regular inspection, they would be destroyed.

Tehran knows this, which is why, despite 40 years of hostility, Iran has never sought war with the "Great Satan" and does not want this war to which we seem to be edging closer every day.

It would not bring about "regime change" or bring down Iran's government that survived eight years of ground war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

If we wish to impose a regime more to our liking in Tehran, we will have to do it the way we did it with Germany and Japan after 1945, or with Iraq in 2003. We would have to invade and occupy Iran.

But in World War II, we had 12 million men under arms. And unlike Iraq in 2003, which is one-third the size and population of Iran, we do not have the hundreds of thousands of troops to call up and send to the Gulf.

Nor would Americans support such an invasion, as President Donald Trump knows from his 2016 campaign. Outside a few precincts, America has no enthusiasm for a new Mideast war, no stomach for any occupation of Iran.

Moreover, war with Iran would involve firefights in the Gulf that would cause at least a temporary shutdown in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz -- and a worldwide recession.

Spain has pulled its lone frigate out of John Bolton's flotilla headed for the Gulf. Britain, France and Germany are staying with the nuclear pact, continuing to trade with Iran, throwing ice water on our intelligence reports that Iran is preparing to attack us.

Turkey regards Iran as a cultural and economic partner. Russia was a de facto ally in Syria's civil war. China continues to buy Iranian oil. India just hosted Iran's foreign minister.

A year ago, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a MacArthurian ultimatum, making 12 demands on the Tehran regime.

Iran must abandon all its allies in the Middle East -- Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza -- pull all forces under Iranian command out of Syria, and then disarm all its Shiite militia in Iraq.

Iran must halt all enrichment of uranium, swear never to produce plutonium, shut down its heavy water reactor, open up its military bases to inspection to prove it never had a secret nuclear program and stop testing missiles. And unless she submits, Iran will be strangled with sanctions.

Pompeo's speech at the Heritage Foundation read like the terms of some conquering Caesar dictating to some defeated tribe in Gaul, though we had yet to fight and win the war, usually a precondition for dictating terms.

Yet, as one looks again at the places where Pompeo ordered Iran out -- Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Syria, Iraq -- no vital interest of ours was imperiled by any Iranian presence.

The people who have a problem with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are the Israelis whose occupations spawned those movements.

Syria's Bashar Assad never threatened us, though we armed rebels to overthrow him. In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militia helped us to defend Baghdad from the southerly advance of ISIS, which had taken Mosul.

Who wants us to plunge back into the Middle East, to fight a new and wider war than the ones we fought already this century in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen?

Answer: Pompeo and Bolton, Bibi Netanyahu, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Sunni kings, princes, emirs, sultans and the other assorted Jeffersonian democrats on the south shore of the Persian Gulf.

And lest we forget, the never-Trumpers and neocons in exile nursing their bruised egos, whose idea of sweet revenge is a U.S. return to the Mideast in a war with Iran, which then brings an end to the Trump presidency.

If there is any war of any kind it will not include troops being at the mercy of IEDs or holding territory. Their job will be to keep international commerce flowing safely through the straits of Hormuz. That means breaking things the Iranians can use to threaten that commerce. If the Iranians react badly to that by firing missiles at other countries, it means using air power and our own capabilities to break the things they use to do that (a much more destructive...and dramatic...outcome).

Donald Trump will not engage in regime change, or invasions, or nation building. Those things don’t work and are in fact destructive not constructive. What is happening now is preparation for the possibility that Iran will attempt to disrupt international commerce in a very big way, and the further possibility that it may attempt - as its regional power diminishes from its losses in Syria and Iraq - to create a larger conflagration by attacking Gulf States, Saudi Arabia or even Israel. Trump is not going to pull a Bush or a Clinton.

"Those terrorist groups would have no impact on the U.S. if just minded our own business and stayed the hell out of those Islamic sh!t-holes over there." Ignoring the threat here is what got a lot of people killed in 911 and other attempts to do more. The Clinton administration was arrogant enough to think we weren't in the game even to let Bin Laden walk. These people do not do what they say and are intent based upon their religious beliefs to convert or kill. And they believe they will be rewarded for it in death so nothing stops them unless we do. "LOL. Is this like a report from John Brennan and James Clapper?" This report is coming from an independent group hired by the people to do nothing more than provide information. The CFR's mission is to be "a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries". Its membership, which numbers 4,900, has included senior politicians, secretaries of state, CIA directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures. Most of those would not have a seat there if they just sat there and lied. There are too many different needs within the spectrum, to include theirs, and differences would improve the report. And they are in there if you read it. It's like opinions from the supreme court. "...they sound awful ... like an organized crime family here in the U.S. Maybe this is why Europe doesn't even consider Hezbollah to be a terrorist organization -- and even recognizes Hezbollah's leadership to be a legitimate political organization." Now you have something. They are a crime family, at the highest level. They launder money to provide the jihadists with product. The gun running goes from small arms to NBC, hopefully not the N as much, but that is a major concern as there are many pieces on the float like a few suitcases from the Russian army that are missing. And training, otherwise known as camps. People are not born with the knowledge of how to successfully execute a sortie. They have to be taught and in many cases, provided with the tools to get it accomplished. Hezbollah receives military training, weapons, and financial support from Iran, and political support from Syria. That we know of, they possess the Katyusha-122 rocket and also possess about 100 long-range missiles. They include the Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 and have used them in Israel. Hezbollah is in possession of Scudmissiles that were provided to them by Syria. Syria denied the reports. Hezbollah is armed with anti-tank guided missiles, namely, the Russian-made AT-3 Sagger, AT-4 Spigot, AT-5 Spandrel, AT-13 Saxhorn-2 'Metis-M', АТ-14 Spriggan 'Kornet'; Iranian-made Ra'ad (version of AT-3 Sagger), Towsan and MILAN missiles. These weapons have been used against IDF soldiers, causing many of the deaths during their wars on Lebanon. A small number of Saeghe-2s (Iranian-made version of M47 Dragon) were also used in the war. For air defense, Hezbollah has anti-aircraft weapons that include the ZU-23 artillery and the man-portable, shoulder-fired SA-7 and SA-18 surface-to-air missile (SAM).One of the most effective weapons deployed by Hezbollah has been the C-802 anti-ship missile. And almost all of these are mobile. This sound like a safe group to trust? But the main problem is ignoring the threat. It is going to get here at some point far worse than it already is. Take a look at the problems in Germany, France, England, and the Philippines. They ignored it also. Now they are paying the price and better than half of them didn't go into the $hit holes you talk about. They ignored it and it came over and bit them on the a$$. Sorry about the non-broken paragraphs. Don't know why it happened. rwood

I petition , in writing , the President , on a regular basis , to allow for the voluntary services of older American males , who are in reasonably good shape . As I am . No answer
I have offered to enlist twice . First was in the following Sept. 11th , 2001 . Then again a few years later when they increased the allowable enlistment age a little bit . The answer both times was “ Sorry , you are too old”
Bullshit . I can drive very well , shoot straight and am not overweight . I would make a great older soldier , serving in some role , freeing up the younger ,fitter guys for the spearpoint roles . This condition / situation applies to millions of older ,fire breather Americans .

I firmly believe it is high time to make the rest of the world again realize that if they fluck with us , there will be a terrible cost to pay . It is also time to dump this limp wristed namby-pamby attitude in America , ever more dominated by pussy Millennials who are unwilling to fight for our country and go out and crush our enemies .
To all those that have served in combat , I salute you . Thank you . To the U.S. government that needs help , let the greybeards help .....it’s time.
If they do not fear the U.S. they will not respect us . Make them fear us . Deeply .

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