Midterm Elections: What’s at Stake in the House?
Posted on 10/19/2018 11:51:33 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.
With the midterm elections now less than three weeks away, it’s time to look at the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold a 236-193 majority, with a half-dozen seats vacant. Will they hold on? Or will Democrats seize control for the first time since 2011?
Republicans go into the contest with a few disadvantages. First, history isn’t on their side. In 35 of the last 38 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. (History is also a challenge in the Senate. For more, see Midterm Elections: What’s at Stake in the Senate?)
Meanwhile, voters generally seem to favor Democrats—at least according to “generic ballot” polling, in which voters are asked whether they would prefer Republican or Democratic representation in Congress. According to Real Clear Politics, which averages major polls, the generic Democrat has led the Republican by about seven percentage points in recent weeks.
Of course, the generic ballot can be misleading: People don’t vote generically. They choose between individual candidates.
(Excerpt) Read more at schwab.com ...
Idjoits!
What’s at stake? The consequences of having Nancy Pelosi or Jim Jordan as Speaker of the House. We’ll see.
The problem placing faith in RCP is they treat obviously baised media polls like CNN/Washington Post/NBC as serious. That skews the numbers to the left since they are always wildly out of touch with reality. They need to limit their polling aggregation to serious polling outfits.
The other thing that sad about this article. They just repeating all the same old media narrative manufactured by notoriously wrong forecasters like Cook and Sabato
Basically this is a re-hash of everyone group think. It offers no real insight or understanding.
Midterm Elections: What’s at Stake in the House?
If the Democrats win the House, I expect we’re in for two years of multiple “investigations” and 24/7 breathless MSM coverage of same. They’ll want to delay impeachments for as long as possible, because these would die quick deaths in the Senate. Apart from that, a number of obnoxious bills will be forwarded, to be quickly killed by the Senate or vetoed by the President. Again, 24/7 coverage bashing Trump and the GOP without end.
In summary, much the same as now. Maybe Trump will get the gumption to task the Army Corps of Engineers to build the wall, though.
It seems individual races are either red or blue leaning.
If someone lives near a city, it is probably blue. If someone lives near a rural area, it is probably red.
Someone should take the urban or rural area into consideration, when predicting a House race.
Our district (now the 14th) is even more rural and Republican than before. A lot of the pollsters have written Rothfus off because of the little Lamb's surprise win in March. But if Trump won it in 2016 by roughly the same 54%-43% which Obama won over Romney, I don't think so. Both candidates are still buying a lot of television advertising.
Two very big differences from March, namely, (1)the voters already feel they have delivered their punishment to the lying adulterous former congress critter Tim Murphy (R), (2)They've also had 6 months to look at the opportunistic smarmy little prick Conor Lamb who, almost immediately after being sworn in, abandoned his district to find one easier to win. Yeah, he said he won't back Pelosi as speaker and he won't automatically vote to impeach Trump (his choice of weasel words), but his central campaign issue now is "mandatory health coverage for pre-existing conditions" to which Rothfus has already cut a convincing ad to counter.
Now the j@ck@$$ party is talking about four.
They may end up flipping only two, one of which was Charlie Dent's who was a RINO's RINO.
Stupid propaganda article. The 50 IQ scribbler relies on averaging polls from the execrable Real Clear Politics. If the writer looked at the polls averaged by Real Clear Politics, he’d discover that these polls are heavily weighted toward democrat respondents, which is not a reflection of reality.
If democrats are winning a district by 4 points according to a biased, left-wing poll, it’s more likely that the republican is up by 4 points.
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