It seems individual races are either red or blue leaning.
If someone lives near a city, it is probably blue. If someone lives near a rural area, it is probably red.
Someone should take the urban or rural area into consideration, when predicting a House race.
Our district (now the 14th) is even more rural and Republican than before. A lot of the pollsters have written Rothfus off because of the little Lamb's surprise win in March. But if Trump won it in 2016 by roughly the same 54%-43% which Obama won over Romney, I don't think so. Both candidates are still buying a lot of television advertising.
Two very big differences from March, namely, (1)the voters already feel they have delivered their punishment to the lying adulterous former congress critter Tim Murphy (R), (2)They've also had 6 months to look at the opportunistic smarmy little prick Conor Lamb who, almost immediately after being sworn in, abandoned his district to find one easier to win. Yeah, he said he won't back Pelosi as speaker and he won't automatically vote to impeach Trump (his choice of weasel words), but his central campaign issue now is "mandatory health coverage for pre-existing conditions" to which Rothfus has already cut a convincing ad to counter.