Posted on 08/21/2018 5:49:48 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Anthony Salvanto was imprisoned in a windowless office on Nov. 8, 2016. His phone was confiscated; guards escorted him to the bathroom. And all he had to look at were numbers, numbers and more numbers.
It wasn’t some sadistic punishment. It was Election Day, and Salvanto, head pollster for CBS News, was one of the few experts allowed see the exit-poll data as it rolled in.
Hillary Clinton held a lead all day, as most polls had predicted. But Salvanto saw a radical shift brewing. Clinton’s advantage was narrow, and many of the voters who hadn’t yet cast ballots were not on her side.
“This is a contested race,” he announced to the network’s anchors and producers once he returned to the newsroom. “I told them to get set for a very late night.”
Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential victory was one of the most stunning upsets in American electoral history. In the campaign’s final days, polls had given Clinton up to a 7-point edge.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
45,000 sealed indictments will have a huge effect on the election.
He says the GOP will retain the House, lose some seats, but retain the House, but I didn’t readily see comments on the Senate.
“45,000 sealed indictments will have a huge effect on the election.”
It wasn't a radical shift, it was just lying MSM-Democrat manipulation of polling data falling apart.
“For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.”
So if some other district, one that they’re not tracking, has an ‘unexpected upset’, they will once again be caught short.
Since CBS got caught with their pants down on Election Night like the rest of the media, I’m surprised this guy did not become the scapegoat and unceremoniously fired.
Yes but the GOP has become complacent AGAIN!!!
It was Trump, PERSONALLY, who gave us the wins in 2016. The GOP’s “you like us, we like you” namby-pamby lazy why-work-when-we-don’t-have-to approach is a LOSER. They are so afraid to take a stand they won’t even work on their BASE!
Here in Texas we have a perfect example. This new flavor of the week beto o’rourke is challenging Ted Cruz for Senate.
beto is really generating excitement (admittedly with complete complicity of the lsm). He is stumping, speechifying and saying all the right things to at least his base and is also coming across as a bit more centrist. The important thing is he is OUT THERE.
Cruz is sitting hunkered down and has been all but invisible. It is bad enough he is getting a reputation as being absent, insular and impossible to reach — his office doesn’t answer the phone, emails get form emails in return and he is absent for many votes.
But there is no EXCITEMENT there, like there was when he won the office back in 2012 and was running against name-recognition Dewhurst.
Where is that grass-roots bang the trash cans effort now?
Not just Cruz but the GOP in general?
President Trump has been holding rallies across the country to keep the base engaged.
Where te HELL is the GOP?
There is a lot at stake here and none of them seem to care.
Have to define some terms here. A “wave” election is not a term that really has a precise meaning. The way Charlie Cook uses it, it means that national issues come to dominate local races. In the last six “waves” (defined ex post) the average number of House seats changing hands is as few as 21, but usually averaging around 35-40.
Point being that arguing about whether something is a “wave” is different to saying that the Democrats won’t win the House. These pollsters are using weasel words to avoid making a call on the actual race, they’re making a call on whether or not ex post this year’s election will be considered a wave.
They’re creating rhetorical space so that even if the Dems win, they can say, yes they won the House, but this was not a wave.
Add to that observation that Trump will be out campaigning 5 days a week which if he wee Obama the press would conclude that having a president out on the campaign will seal the deal.
If you follow state by state on the Senate race....with the exception of Nevada, seats held by the GOP currently will likely remain in GOP hands. Nevada could still be a win, but you’d need a lot of Trump-effort to pull that off.
As for the Democrats....going state by state, I’d say they lose four seats, with another two in some 50-50 status.
There are two wildcards in this Senate race. One....the black vote going to Trump’s vision, and giving 40-odd percent of the vote to the GOP’s candidats (I know it might be a severe shock for the news media to accept that one). The second thing is the general vote in the thirty states that Trump won.
I will also go and suggest that in California....Feinstein is set to face de Leon (a Democrat) because of their funny rigged up race. I think Feinstein could possibly be beat (two to four points). That might be the one election to really watch.
If you were looking for another interesting race....Tina Smith’s race in Minnesota (as a Democrat) was fairly safe (six months ago). Today, Smith might only be 8-to-9 points ahead, and she appears to be a rather ‘unthrilling’ campaigner. Housley (at least what I’ve seen) might be more pumped up, and with some Trump-charm mixed in....she could easily make up five points and bring this to a fairly close race.
How queer, why is the potential outcome even “news” for impartial journalists?
Both sides present their candidates and the public makes a decision to vote, or stay home, or ignore certain offices.
Until all of the votes are in, only someone trying to sway the outcome is interested in how close it is in the leadup to the election.
It seems like the only one campaigning on our side is Trump. Where's the fire, GOP? Record fundraising and silence.
Only poll that matters is held on November 6th.
I will be unsurprised if TCruz is dethroned on November 6. Why isn’t he out campaigning: too hot, I guess?
At that point look for wholesale changes within Deep State (primarily State Dept. and Dept. of Justice)
“Where te HELL is the GOP?”
My GOP Congresscritter is the same. She won’t do town halls, not because she is afraid of Democrat hecklers, she doesn’t want to answer questions from conservatives who are angry with the do nothing GOP Congress. All public appearances are carefully orchestrated and receive no local press. Her weekly newsletters are all boilerplate middle of the road patronizing propaganda. Since she faced no primary opposition, she’s expecting us all to vote for her in order to keep the socialist Democrats from taking over the House. Once she’s reelected she’ll go back to serving the big money donors.
Cruz has the Hillary disease on the campaign trail for good reason, like her, the more you see him and hear him speak, the less you like him. Happened to me in 2016, I came into it excited and expecting to support Cruz. I came out of it disgusted with him, verging upon hating him.
Wow. It would be great to go back and relive that night. I went to bed early, depressed as usual, that the Dems would win. At 11pm, my husband came into the room and suggested I get up. We were then up until 3am, beaming!
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