Posted on 08/08/2018 6:56:21 AM PDT by LS
No matter what else you hear or read, keep this in mind: for the next three months Troy Balderson (R) will be voting in the US House, not a fruitball DemoKKKrat.
It's time we all readjust our thinking. There is too much analysis of how "red" or "blue" districts are, and, I think, a little too much expectation of a blowout because a district has a lot of Republicans.
While I don't watch the NFL anymore, this is akin to those games on the schedule where you used to say, "Oh, it's the Browns. The Dallas Cowboys should win by 30," and almost inevitably it would be a tight game. (Down memory lane: the Cowboys played the bad Buffalo Bills on MNF one night & Tony Romo threw five INTs . . . yet won the game in the last seconds---it was a great "game" and a terrible performance).
Anyway, I think this is the mindset the fake news media has been pushing us to all along: huge expectations of blowouts so they can then report on what a "disappointment" it was and how "close" it was and how the "DemoKKKrats can take satisfaction that, gee, they're really close."
Folks, our view must be to win is all that matters. By one point, by 50,000 votes, by 3 million. In November, if we have 226 seats, each won by a single vote, I'm thrilled. It does us no good to have 200 seats won in blowouts and lose 50 seats by razor-thin margins.
I think most of you would agree with that. Roy Moore left home 685,000 Republicans on election night. But we didn't need 685,000. We only needed 30,000 of them to hold a senate seat.
Now, as to the OH12 district itself: As some of you have already pointed out, the Rs got wise. They withheld a lot of Delaware (red) county's votes until all of Franklin (blue) had come in. Brilliant. This must be the strategy all over the US. (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, MI, and PA. I don't recall how WI came in.
Second, it's obvious to anyone but the numbskull pus-bubbles on CNN that Trump literally carried Troy Balderson across the line kicking and screaming. I spoke with Richard Baris a lot yesterday, as well as with "OhioWan," my superb source in Ohio. They agreed that Balderson had seen a big (8-10 point) lead slip in the days prior to the election, and that Trump stopped the bleeding. FWIW, Baris also told me that in PA18, which we lost by 500 votes, Saccone was down six before Trump came in.
If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble.
Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place! (This was just prior to Trump's visit). I don't know how that's possible, but it does reinforce my position that especially on our side---but I think on both---there still is a lot of election fatigue.
The overall turnout was right at 200,000 on the low, low side of many pundits' predictions (some estimated it would be about 227,000).
Baris, @ABPatriotWriter Alex Bedhaze, and I all concur that high turnout in the Trump era HELPS Republicans, and it's important in November that the turnouts are higher.
Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes.
So, a good result. "Any airplane landing you walk away from is a good landing."
Now a word on AZ: I got word yesterday there is a major hitjob coming (I think in RollCall) on Kelli Ward's husband over "harassment" from a disgruntled staffer and a medical case brought years ago which resulted in a small judgment against him. I'm not going to go into details, but what the TIMING of this tells me is that the poll last week showing Kelli down about six or seven to McSally is deeply troubling to the Swamp and to McSally.
I'm certain this is a Swamp hit specifically because Ward has been strongly eating into Joe Arpaio's numbers. A few months ago, he was at 24% and even second in a poll. Now he's a distant third, at 15%, while Ward has jumped six points. Clearly she is pulling in the Joe voters who realize he can't win, and to vote for Joe is to nominate McSally. Ward's new ad "mentioning" (I would not say "attacking") Joe is very respectful and "nice," but says a senator needs to address all issues. Good ad.
Right now, AZ has about a 260,000 R advantage, but I expect that will grow by 3,000 or more in three weeks when the new registration numbers appear from the Secretary of State. We know about "red" and "blue" as I just said, but in theory, no Republican should lose an AZ senate seat. I think either Ward or McSally can beat Enema for different reasons (Ward will turn out more conservatives, McSally will turn out more indies). But what this new RollCall hit tells me is that the Swamp now is seriously concerned about Ward.
OH and AZ updates
I assume the media will no longer be saying that this is a referendum on Trump & the midterms...
Well, they will cite how close it was as a “referendum.
Remember fake news media rules:
R wins by a few votes, “it’s close, Republicans must be worried, DemoKKKrats are thrilled”
R wins by 3-5 “Can’t take much from this, doesn’t mean anything”
R wins by 10-20, no reporting at all.
My interpretation is that the GOP in Ohio wasn't interested in winning this election. Could I be wrong?
Thanks!
Special elections are always tough, summertime and people aren’t thinking about “elections” so turnout is generally very low. Thus, getting out the vote is difficult and I suspect that O’Connor was more telegenic than Troy, plus Dems outspent 3-1.
Very good. I don’t have the time to write that much but you are doing your part. And the Arpaio, Flakes, and McCains? Look at who didn’t show up to vote in Ohio-12 and you can see how frustrating this gets. You take a step forward and they pull the rest of us back. I’m talking about OUR people. Trump is the one who is exposing all this. I hope he saves his ammo for the RINO’s amongst us.
And the Dems are taking out ‘hit’ ads on both Ward and McSally. I saw one last night hitting McSally and looked up the group that paid for the ad. ‘Red and Gold’ only registered with Arizona last week. They have about a million to spend and have been identified as a Dem group. And Sinema STILL NEVER IDENTIFIES AS A DEMOCRAT in any ad.
The surveys I have been getting one of the first questions lists all those running in AZ and I chose Ward.
The next several questions were asking me to watch a few McSally commercials and rate them. Each time I said she came across as arrogant and more like Hillary, very cold personality.
Then the questions were if I had to choose between McSally and one other and sometimes it would be McSally and Sinema, or another Republican BUT never McSally against Ward question.
Go figure.
Kasich is a never-Trump a$$. He influences too many people.
That should tell you a lot about who is paying for these surveys. (Likely Club for Growth).
Yes. They were very interested. But they also know they will have to do it all over again in this district in 3 months.
I am reading here in the Michigan/Ohio border that it is too close to call.
Yes. Joe Scarborough is seeing this as a victory for Dems, lol. Something about only toothless people vote for Republicans which marginalizes the party.
As you said: a victory is a victory. I’m not going to spend time agitating on margins. Do Dems do that? No!
In the Ohio case, “close” means Dems were more motivated to get out and vote. Thats something R’s can and should address.
How did the people in Ohio vote for the Democrat? I’m not worried about a blue wave.
No, it’s over. Balderson won. 3900 provisionals vs. 2000 lead and O’Conner needs 3/4 to win. Won’t happen.
‘K-Sick seems to support quasi-’Rats like himself. I think the OH-GOPee is in league with him.
Interesting turnout info - 2018 vs 2016...
2016
113,000 (D)
251,000 (R)
2018
100,000 (D)
101,000 (R)
Conclusions:
1. 90% turnout for (D)
2. 40% turnout for (R)
3. Either ballot box stuffing for (D) or
4. Low enthusiasm for (R)
5. BOTH
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