Posted on 07/27/2018 5:17:18 PM PDT by Magnatron
In a special preview for Axios readers, here's a new analysis by David Wasserman of Cook Political Report, unpacking the GOP's daunting math:
"With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930." (After the March victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House).
"Of Republicans' 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent."
Killer stat: "[S]ince 1992, in situations when a president's party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column."
"Fundraising deficits are a growing GOP problem":
"[I]n 20 of the 42 seats, the leading Democrat raised more than the leading Republican between April and June, including in seven of eight Clinton-carried districts (Rep. Dave Reichert's open WA-08 was the only exception) and 13 of 34 Trump-carried seats."
David's ratings for the 42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R.
...Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House...
David's ratings for the 42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R.
Ummm...
23 - 3 Likely D - 5 Lean D - 4 Tossup (if they were lucky enough to get them all) = 11
Dems miss winning the House.
How is this "Daunting Math"?
Trust Axios ... not!
...How is this “Daunting Math..
It’s desperate democrat math.
How many seats will the Dems lose ?
Axios is cr@p.
Twitter: Emily Badger, NYT
TWEET: 26 July: Did you have things you needed to do today? Sorry, @UpshotNYT just published a beautiful interactive 3D map of the 2016 election *down to the precinct*
https://twitter.com/emilymbadger/status/1022502177837703168
check Badger’s main twitter page where there’s more on the map from the NYT’s Dem followers.
surely NYT is not partisan!
IMHO, Axios is another crypto-leftard propaganda source. Hugh Hewitt has them on frequently. Not impressed.
I get that these pukes are venal and only in it for themselves, but worse than that, they are stupid. By supporting Trump they could have the lifetime sinecures they crave.
I will never understand why we, for most of whom politics is a side interest, are so much better at it than these highly-paid consultants that claim it as their livelihood.
Charlie Cook’s “political report”, loved by the Slimes and the Compost? Never mind the “non-partisan” claims when Cook worked for the Dems for decades.
Take nothing for granted. Don’t dismiss articles or polls you don’t like as “biased” or “unrealistic” and assume it’s in the bag. We need to treat the mid terms as though it’s going to be a real dog fight, and get as many people on our side as we can out to the polls in November. Complacency is our biggest enemy.
The author is reaching. Insanity and Communism are the Dems main calling cards. The American people are waking up to and seeing through the MSM manipulation. If the media’s lies were working Trump’s poll numbers would be in George W. Bush territory!
I just can’t see why anyone would be motivated to go out and vote D. They have no message, no reasonable platform, nothing to offer, except Trump derangement.
I think its going to be a wipeout for Democrats in both House and Senate. The propagandists in the media will again express their dismay.
I like the polls that say we are losing. They've been good to us.
This is going to be the most consequential midterm election in history. Vote as if we were losing. That's what we did last time.
the better way imo; 4 Likely GOP + 19 solid GOP =23 of the 42 = 19 for the rats (and that’s not including GOP leans)...
Politics- Clinton Win, Democratic Senate Seen by Analyst Charlie Cook
November 8, 2016, 9:36 AM EST
Paul Ryan is working as hard as he can to undermine Trump and lose the House. He has a big payday planned IMO.
Politics- Clinton Win, Democratic Senate Seen by Analyst Charlie Cook
November 8, 2016, 9:36 AM EST
Political analyst Charlie Cook in National Journal predicts that Hillary Clinton will win presidential election and Democrats will take control of Senate.
Won’t put specific percentage on Clinton’s chances of winning, but says “it’s a really big number”
Predicts Democrats will gain 4 seats to give them a 50-50 split of chamber, where ties would be broken by Democratic Vice President Tim Kaine with a Clinton win
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