...Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House...
David's ratings for the 42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R.
Ummm...
23 - 3 Likely D - 5 Lean D - 4 Tossup (if they were lucky enough to get them all) = 11
Dems miss winning the House.
How is this "Daunting Math"?
Trust Axios ... not!
...How is this “Daunting Math..
It’s desperate democrat math.
How many seats will the Dems lose ?
Axios is cr@p.
IMHO, Axios is another crypto-leftard propaganda source. Hugh Hewitt has them on frequently. Not impressed.
I get that these pukes are venal and only in it for themselves, but worse than that, they are stupid. By supporting Trump they could have the lifetime sinecures they crave.
I will never understand why we, for most of whom politics is a side interest, are so much better at it than these highly-paid consultants that claim it as their livelihood.
Charlie Cook’s “political report”, loved by the Slimes and the Compost? Never mind the “non-partisan” claims when Cook worked for the Dems for decades.
Take nothing for granted. Don’t dismiss articles or polls you don’t like as “biased” or “unrealistic” and assume it’s in the bag. We need to treat the mid terms as though it’s going to be a real dog fight, and get as many people on our side as we can out to the polls in November. Complacency is our biggest enemy.
The author is reaching. Insanity and Communism are the Dems main calling cards. The American people are waking up to and seeing through the MSM manipulation. If the media’s lies were working Trump’s poll numbers would be in George W. Bush territory!
I just can’t see why anyone would be motivated to go out and vote D. They have no message, no reasonable platform, nothing to offer, except Trump derangement.
I think its going to be a wipeout for Democrats in both House and Senate. The propagandists in the media will again express their dismay.
I like the polls that say we are losing. They've been good to us.
This is going to be the most consequential midterm election in history. Vote as if we were losing. That's what we did last time.
the better way imo; 4 Likely GOP + 19 solid GOP =23 of the 42 = 19 for the rats (and that’s not including GOP leans)...
>>How is this “Daunting Math”?
Because even with excessive D+n polling, it is “daunting” to make a map that looks good for Dems.
Trump is the only thing that’s working in politics these days. If the GOP would get behind Trump they’d win in a cakewalk.
It’s the way they operate their little echo chamber. One outfit, say Cook Political Report or Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball... will come up with numbers for these races that, if accurate, would be trouble for Republicans. They don’t have to be accurate; they just have to depress GOP voters and supporters.
Cook will publish his story, Sabato will pick it up, so will Politico and WaPo, then before you know it, it’s Gospel. Gop has a tendency to fall for this; I hope they don’t in ‘18. Consider: Maxine Waters would be chair of an oversight committee. So, Repubs, even if it’s a RINO, you hae to vote to keep R control of 2019-2020 will show POTUS blocked at every turn; all committee investigations into the FBI/DOJ, etc. will cease, and there will be impeachment hearings.
Um 3+5+4=12 Common core strike again.
We may disagree with predictions, but aren’t the stats from the past accurate?
Wasserman’s ratings are based on a methodology that considers the results in the last election, by precinct, polls to the extent they are available, other trends, and a turnout model.
That provides a reasonable though not completely predictive outcome. Last election, that model did not work well. But, all of the other prediction are just nonsense fillers that are cherry picked from lists of statistical noise about generalities from previous elections. It doesn’t mean much.
While the media always point out that the Democrats have the advantage because of the large numbers of Republican open seats, they almost never point out that the economy is booming, and Trump has a remarkable record of delivering his campaign promises. Those factors favor the Republicans, Finally, in midterm elections, turnout has historically favored Republicans because Republicans tend to vote at every election and Democrats only vote in Presidential elections and then only when there is a marque candidate like Obama or Clinton. Most Senate and House candidates are not celebrities. Democrats will have a problem with turnout.