But will he win enough votes in Kalifornia and New York to win the popular vote?
It will be interesting to see the level of doctoring the first presidential preference polls go through. Imagine a poll of Trump vs. Warren. The pollsters will have to poll not-likely voters by phone and make sure democrats outnumber repubs 2-1 and most polling will have to take place in New England. Then, maybe Warren will be within 5 points.
And here’s one reason why Trump will not win 40 states in 2020:
The Democrats did not take Trump seriously in 2016. Hillary did not even bother to seriously campaign in several swing states.
The Democrats will take Trump seriously in 2020. Ballots will be stuffed, and money will be spent to get out every last voter. And a few days before the general election, the mainstream media will blast out some well-crafted, fake Trump story.
It’s early, of course. But I predict a squeaker in 2020, just as we saw in 2016.
All well and good.
But lets hold onto the House and increase the majority in the Senate in the 2018 elections. President Trump needs all the help he can get.
Love this article, it’s very upbeat and pretty spot on.
Only thing I worry about is the wall. If there doesn’t seem to be much progress, it may be harder for Trump to get reelected. I hope we see something starting before his reelection. Of course I know it’s not his fault, it’s the worthless do-nothing Congress. But still, people won’t see that and he will get blamed.
Yes, it’s not just about his reelection – we desperately need that wall and for the illegals to get the hell out of our country!
I’m holding Kevin to that.
1. Massachusetts
2. Rhode Island
3. Vermont
4. Connecticut
5. New York
6. New Jersey
7. Maryland
8. Illinois
9. Washington
10. Oregon
11. California
12. Hawaii
I'd like someone to tell me which three of these states Trump could possibly win in 2020. And that only gets him to 40 states if all the other states that voted for Clinton in 2016 also go for Trump -- including New Hampshire, Delaware, Virginia, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
2020 doesn’t matter. Only 2018, and at least one more SCOTUS justice. If the dims get the House or Senate Trump will not get another justice appointment.
1. Healthcare. Trump owns it now and it's getting worse.
2. Trade war. Trump has said that they're easy to win. Well that may be a bit of an exaggeration but still, winning will take time and in the mean time there will be a lot of pain in terms of higher prices for imported goods and lower demand for our exports. That's going to cost businesses and jobs, and could cause an economic downturn.
3. Deficit. We're on track for a trillion dollar deficit. Taming that requires deep cuts, and while Trump has recognized the need for slashing spending in his budget proposals all of those cuts in discretionary spending gores someone's ox. If he can get Congress to go along then who bears the pain will play into the election. If Congress doesn't go along then Trump is saddled with trillion dollar deficits in a time of tremendous economic strength.
4. Immigration and the wall. Still one of his biggest campaign promises and still not happening. Not to the extent his base wants.
5. He has his base, he needs to keep the rest of his voters. I think it's very optimistic that Trump will do that well among African-Americans. He needs to keep the traditionally Democrat voters he flipped last time, or at least keep them home. That's what got him Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last time. Democrats will be just as motivated as Trump's base will be so it depends on who attracts those who voted for him last time.
I'm a firm believer that you can't beat somebody with nobody, and right now the Democrats have nobody. But say, for the sake of argument, that they actually settle on a candidate who could win then these are at least five reasons why Trump could lose 7 to 10 states in 2020.
His five reasons for the 40 state win prediction
1. Jobs
2. He Will Garner Record African American Support
3. His Base Is Strongest Of The Era
4. Stronger Might, Less War, Safer World
5. Foreign Policy Dominance
************
The only way this happens is if 40 million illegal aliens get deported, and given the Wall being in limbo that isn’t happening.
Only 40?
Keep in mind the never Trumpers in the GOP Senate will do what they can to get him impeached before that.
States that are the naysaying 10: Ca, Hi, NY, Ma, Vt, RI, Ct, NJ, Md, I’ll
Trump can win every state bar California which is irredeemably Corrupt .
Trump is systematically destroying the two guarantors of Marxist power, the corrupt media and the education system. Once both are defeated, the Dummycrats will never hold power again. A Dummycrats won’t evem be able to win dog catcher in Vermont.
Look at Trumps outstanding success with the black vote. He will win over 50%of it in 2020
Trump will win all 57 states in 2020
I like Trump and I wish him well. But he has not kept 3 promises that were the most urgent to me.
-Build the Wall - I know he says they have started, and I realize the GOPe is obstructing. But it’s the president’s role to convince Congress, use the bully pulpit, etc. If not the wall, then a major overhaul of immigration that keeps the illegals out.
-Repeal and Replace Obamacare - I know, John McCain hosed him, but again, part of the job is to persuade the Congress. Of course, the GOP has been promising this one for years and they didn’t have a plan ready to go on day one. Disgraceful. I have grown to despise the GOP in Congress almost as much as I loathe the Democrats.
-Lock Her Up - I was very disappointed when, immediately after the election, he said the Clintons had been through enough. I don’t care, she broke the law, and I want to see her in jail.
He’s delivered plenty of great results so far. Hopefully he’ll get around to these other 3 before too long.
bump