Posted on 03/14/2018 1:12:13 PM PDT by Simon Green
We get it! Republicans are in deep trouble.
If you skipped watching the results of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District last night to catch an action movie or read a crime thriller instead, you picked the less exciting activity. Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone ran neck and neck for most of the evening (at one point, they were separated by only 95 votes), and even The Associated Press went to bed without calling the race. As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, with 100 percent of precincts reporting, Lamb led by 641 votes, or 0.28 percentage points. And he and Democrats had claimed victory.
The exact margin will likely change,1 but it’s going to be very difficult for Saccone to make up that deficit. The only votes left to be counted are around 200 absentee ballots in Greene County (expected to be announced on Wednesday) as well as a handful of provisional and overseas ballots, which may take days to finalize. There may not even be 641 ballots left to count.
Nor is a recount likely to change the final result. Although it would be pretty easy for Republicans to request a recount should they want one, recounts typically don’t shift election margins by that much. That’s especially true in Pennsylvania, where most voting is done on electronic touchscreens; a recount would only reveal errors in the small population of paper ballots.
But as we’ve told you from the beginning, for those of us who don’t live in the Pennsylvania 18th, it doesn’t really matter who wins if what you’re mainly interested in is the 2018 midterms.2 The takeaway for November’s elections will be the same no matter whether Lamb wins by a fraction of a percentage point or Saccone wins by a fraction of a percentage point: Tuesday represented yet another huge Democratic overperformance in a Trump-era special election.
(excerpt)
Trump voters are Trump voters...not GOP voters. If GOP Congressional candidates want them to come out they need to give them a reason!!! If I were Saccone I would have mentioned Donald Trump or one of his signature agenda items in every single ad I ran. Bar none.
How many millions of dollars did the Dems have to pump in to create that “over performance?
Where are they going to get that same funding advantage in Nov when they have to run in every house District and 1/3 of the Senate seats?
Curious if this Leftist anaylisis looked at the GOP style campaign this “Veteran” “Law and Order” canidate ran?
Going to be tough to run on this same set of lies in Nov when they have to go back after actually voting Democrat in the Congress
Fivethirtyeight telling us what we have known all along; if you make enough predictions you will eventually get one right.
“Tuesday represented yet another huge Democratic overperformance in a Trump-era special election.”
Huge? I believe Trump Is 4 for 5 in special house races.
This election is only good till Nov anyway.
Which Dems and Independents who voted for Trump failed to vote or voted for Dem? Why?
If he would have shaved his mustache, he may get have got 700 more votes, or else flipped 350.
Lamb ran as a conservative - he’s pro-gun, he’s pro-life, he’s pro-tariff!
Trump acolyte! A Democrat Blue Dog. Lamb was many things but he didn’t run as a Hillary, Obama or Sanders Democrat.
Even with all that, it wasn’t a blowout win and a resounding rejection of the Trump agenda.
ya...the Dem had to run on the Trump platform to get any attention.
Yup.
Conservative Blue Dog beats establishment Republican.
Yawn. Wake me up when they run a Trump hater in a Trump district.
The Dem ran as pro 2nd Amendment. Let see how well he does after he goes to DC and either votes as Nancy tells him to or buck her and votes as he campaigned.
Conor Lamb is NOT Pro Life.
He responded to that question by saying he is “personally opposed” to abortion. That is NOT Pro Life.
The Catholic Bishop let him skate on that answer, which is a huge reason why he won.
Some people here on FR have said the Dem outspent the Republican by a great margin. Five to one I think I saw.
Is that true? If so, it MIGHT help explain.
Or, if it is not true, it could be a lame urban myth or internet lie that is being used as an excuse.
Does anyone know?
The Emanuel Rahm strategery.
Remember when the Dems ran a lot of Blue Dog candidates for the House and they won?
They can overperform as long as they don’t run Hard Left.
Its a wake-up call.
The lesson is.....Dems will vote for any pretty boy they put out there. When will women figure out that they’re being used.
The GOP, on the other hand, remains determined to run the same type of squishy, establishment candidates that Trump defeated.
True dat.
Voters are sick and tired of the same old same old.
People like the President but not necessarily the GOP establishment.
That’s the obvious readout with last night’s election result.
I agree. I've met more than one person who said they hadn't voted in years, but that they were going to, or had, vote for Trump. And now that they've voted for Trump, they've probably gone back to not voting.
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