Posted on 02/11/2018 4:07:08 PM PST by Texas Fossil
Wow, Turkey is bleeding in Afrin, and just crawling in terms of advances. They are also paying a diplomatic price for this invasion.
Because Afrin is so small, and they have invested so much prestige domestically in gearing up for this invasion, I fear they might choose to double down and give heavy reinforcements a try, before accepting defeat. Hopefully diplomatic pressure can prevent that, but if not, I’d anticipate a fresh push, and maybe new tactics in the next week or two.
If they were sufficiently threatened in behind the scenes discussions, or shown significant military deterrent (like a bunch of anti-tank and anti-air missiles being provided to the Kurds), they might hunker down and dig in for a while, or even pull back to defensible positions. Maybe even declare victory and head home.
Extremely Extreme Extremist in Post #3 asked an interesting question: Israel opening up a can?
Israel came close to full war with Syria/Iran/ Hizbollah this weekend. If they wanted Kurdish support against Iranian militias, the Kurds in return would want the means to drive Turkey from Afrin (and maybe al Bab as well).
If Israel gets into Syria (which seems inevitable, given the Iranian threat), I’d expect a dramatically quicker pace of operations than the combatants there have grown used to - and some unexpected moves. Getting the Kurds to go for it against Iran would be a huge gamble for them, but it would have an element of strategic surprise.
The USA and the Saudis each might also be tempted to join in a strategic strike to remove Iran from Syria. The possibilities are endless in the Armageddon that is today’s Syria - and each of the enemies gets their own vote as well.
Thanks for perspective.
Yes, lots and lots of unpredictable elements.
No set back. The writer is not primary in English.
I have very hard time using machine translation effectively. Have improved upon what I did in 2009, when I first tried to use it with Farsi, during #IranElection phase on Twitter.
Trick is write English, simple short structure of sentences, Translate and take results and put back in and reverse the process. Often have to reshuffle the pieces so what comes out of reversal seems intact.
It really helps. But is slow if you don’t type fast. smile.
“” “” Why this century? Because you say so? The Lockerbie bombing and the Gaddafi-sponsored German disco and airport attacks occurred in the 80’s. American leaders did not hesitate to put Gaddafi down when the opportunity presented itself, despite his payment of reparations for the victims of his attacks.”” “”
Hmmm. Do you mean ‘activists’ attacking US over slavery might have a point?
Assad Jr obviously posed no threat to Israel aside from being unable to completely stop Hezbollah activity within his country. That’s a downside of freer regimes which Syria was. Based on a twisted DoS logic he is guilty ‘because leadership is responsible if something bad is going on in the country regardless’. That was one of arguments against Assad stating that the evidence of his forces using gas attacks are weak.
Now tell me how does weakening a regime improves a thing? Do they expect Assad to have better control over Hezbollah and Iran now or what? The question is purely rhetoric of course.
The government now relies on these entities and in no position to tell them what to do. In that sense good relations with Israel is in the end of priority list for Assad.
And if one thinks ‘democratic’ opposition is a better option I once again recommend to review the whole history of regime change starting with Shah of Iran.
The possibilities are endless in the Armageddon that is today’s Syria - and each of the enemies gets their own vote as well.
Good points. I also hate to see people here conflate the Bush and Obama foreign policies. Bush may or may not have been wise to intervene, but at least he took action *against* America’s enemies. Obama took action *for* America’s enemies.
“The possibilities are endless in the Armageddon that is today’s Syria”
“I have my doubts about the eschatological aspect of this conflict.”
Just a bit of poetic license on my part - I had been overusing “witches brew” and was looking for something new...
S***storm? Cluster***k? My poetry heads downhill quickly.
Oh you want Ezekiel 38 and 39. That’s coming very soon. 5 out of every 6 troops dead. Put another way, 83 percent losses. Thousands indeed.
“Do you mean ‘activists’ attacking US over slavery might have a point?”
Perhaps they would be more aptly directed to claim reparations from the descendants of the Norwegians, who took them from their homelands into slavery in the New World.
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2014/09/28/slave-trading-past-still-haunts-norway/
“Norway’s participation in the trans-Atlantic slave trade is back to haunt the country, as an alliance of Caribbean nations seeks slavery reparations. Norway was a territory state under the Danish crown at that time, but Norwegians were strongly represented at all levels in the Danish-Norwegian slave trade from 1660 to 1806” (until the British (1807) and the Americans (1808) put an end to the trans-Atlantic slave trade).
Being a thrall of the Danes is no excuse.
Then again after the mussulman conquests form 620 AD to the 15th century slavery was THE big business for all countries. If you were enterprising and wanted to make money, you entered the slave trade in some form or other. The Shame of The West.
Kumbaya kills
The drone was over Israeli air space. It was basically a probe to see methods and capabilities. Back to the drawing boards for the Iranians. Hahahahaha.
Destroyed the drone and control vehicle. Hahahaha. Oooopss
It was like the radar the Iraqis had but didn’t turn on when we destroyed their air defense capabilities. Turn on radar, eat a missle. Hahahahaha.
They all just need to strap on some vests and kill innocent women and children. Because they’ve got that battlefield technique down cold. But in a modern battlefield with complex inter locking weapons platforms and advanced communications they are just targets...... little meat targets that our troops have grown up destroying since they were 5-6 years old in video games.
Our country and culture is underestimated because of propaganda from the left. Heck, we have our WOMEN fighting in UFC competitions. Americans love combat sports and firearms. Every dictator in the last 100 years has made the mistake of the “weak” Americans. Right up to the time they kill themselves in a bunker, watch their cities disappear in seconds and dig you out of a hole and hang them and their sons.
America is nice, until it’s time to not be nice. Then we’ll just F#%k you up.
Israel can only lose one war. Then the Jews will be in the Mediterranean and the Muslims will celebrate their annihilation. Israel is the ark in the world that calls itself the Jewish homeland. Everywhere else in the world they are seen as outsiders. So they’re not going to play around when someone threatens them.
I think about the brain power, discipline of purpose and knowledge that losing is death, then I think of the Iranians and the rest of the Muslim world only filled with hatred and not on building or positive things and the results are going to be horrendous for the Arab/Muslim population.
The joke is we made with the communists British collonialism PC but because now a plantation of it is run by a brown arab named Assad, it is fine
Trump can do much better.
What’s in it for Israel to invade Iran? Right now, the status quo is in Israel’s favor. Their enemies are caught in a quagmire and there’s no way of getting out anytime soon. In other words, this is an ideal period for Israel because their enemies are too distracted to contemplate an attack on the Jewish State.
Post # 55 - I meant to clarify Israel takes on Iranian proxies in Syria but yeah you get my point.
“What’s in it for Israel to invade Iran? (take on Iranian proxies in Syria)”.
They are pretty rapidly hauling mountains of missiles up near the Israeli border, to launch when war kicks off. Time is not on Israel’s side, as this arsenal grows. It will make for a different kind of war than Israel has faced before.
Iran controls significant surrogate ground forces already in Syria, like Hizbollah, several Iraqi Shi’ite militias, and their own direct “Foreign Legion” militias of Afghan (Hazara) and Pakistani Shi’ite mercenaries and draftees, led by Iranian officers. Tens of thousands, organized, trained and equipped.
Additionally, with a supply route now open from Iran all the way up to the Golan (due to Iranian militias recent capture of al Qaim near the Iraqi border from the collapsing ISIS), it is now possible for virtually the whole Iranian Army to road march up to Israeli border in a matter of days, to reinforce an attack.
That is the capability, but the intent has been equally clear, as Iran visibly and vocally whips up all the anti-Israeli elements in the region to prepare for the big war to destroy Israel that they have said they wanted since 1979. Well they just finally made it to the Border.
If a war is coming, best to fight it on your own terms and schedule. It is pretty clear that what is already being called Israel’s “Northern War” is assembling its host to attack.
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