Posted on 02/09/2018 3:40:20 PM PST by SMGFan
— Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won.
— Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives.
— That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
“The overall picture: Don’t lose sight of how bad of a map this is for Democrats”
Larry Sabato - didn’t he... oh wait, never mind.
And yet all prognosticators are only brave enough rate races as Toss Ups. Who and when will a Toss Up be rated Tilt GOP?
Yes the same DNC fraud who ran around GW Bush would never be reelected .
The DNC scam artist who HIDE his employment for Senate candidate Webb and played unbiased pollster scam trashing his Gop opponent all over cable and radio.
He disappeared for awhile after getting caught .
He is back peddling lies .
Yes , He said Hillary was going to win big too .
I will be surprised if Connelly in Indiana and McCaskill win. We should finally get rid of Florida Senator Nelson if Scott decides to run. I will help as much as I can to help him win. Of course, I am in red Lake Country, but still. We are getting some Puerto Ricans in the southern part of the county so we will have to get some Republicans who don’t typically vote in off year elections to the polls.
How about Nov. 8 2016?
Yep, Summer...
If the GOP-e manages to pull its head out of its..., we could rip the guts out of the DNC for decades to come.
Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November
Not even remotely close
Zero possibility of the Democrats winning a majority
Trump gave a SOTU speech where 43% of DEMOCRATS supported it.
Everyone just started getting their first checks with lower federal taxes, and normal people have about $50-100 more every week or two than they used to... and are gleefully talking about it on Twitter and Facebook.
A million employees have been promised or already received bonus checks, mostly of four figures.
The Russia, Russia, Russia story continues to have NOTHING behind it, and most people have lost all interest in it (outside of the media).
The Senate will likely be a bloodbath for the Dems, losing at least 10 seats if the Hillary v Trump map stays unchanged, and none of the above factors help in other races.
The ONLY way that the RNC and GOP lose the House is through their own intensely grotesque incompetence, and great desire to be a minority party, so that they can pretend to be oppositional Conservatives, without actually having to risk DC losing any power or authority or revenues.
When the best candidates CHOOSE not to run they are screwing the rest of us. That’s why I don’t have much faith in the GOP. They should stay away to begin with.
We have to Primary out all Establishment Republicans immediately, and make sure that the new GOP membership is dedicated to the principles of limited government and limited spending, and is also open to learning from Trump how to play the media game correctly.
Whatever Sabato says... disregard.
The only reason they are there is because of unfortunate verbal gaffes by their opponents last time around - otherwise they would not be there now. The only thing I worry about MO is the scandal involving the incumbent GOP governor possibly affecting the race. Otherwise I believe Josh Hawley ought to be able to oust McCaskill - his views are more in line with Missouri, he speaks well and knows his stuff, and he's also young with a likeable personality. Since that race is a top target he almost certainly will have enough financial backing.
I hope John James can raise enough money to compete with Stabenow in MI - I believe he could win if he just had the funds to get himself exposure to become known to the people statewide - youthful, good personality, well spoken, and a military veteran.
This is the year of the Democrat incumbents. There are comparatively very view GOP seats up this time around. Getting rid of Dems is the opportunity to get new GOP blood in the Senate...perhaps substantially. The more new Senators are there coming in at once, the more likely they will bond with each other vs. with the current old guard. If it is just a couple of them, they will be more cling to the old guard for guidance. Mitt Romney, for example, will likely be one of the new Senators...so we need more than him to be new blood in the Senate. The larger the majority, the less effect turncoats can have as well.
Sure there is a a way the Republicans can blow it. every candidate will be asked whether he or she supports Trump. If he weasels, which is most likely they will pile on and say he opposes Trump, turning off Trump’s voters. They have to ignore gotcha questions and do what the Dems do, repeat their talking points.
Sabato is a joke
But are the target GOP & Dem races some what accurate. Are the status of GOP incumbents at risk of losing? Are open GOP seats switching to Dem possible?
But I think waiting after the primaries first is best.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.