Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Senate’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

taxfoundation.org/ ^ | November 10, 2017

[Jim Robinson]

Key Findings

• The Senate’s version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would reform both individual income and corporate income taxes and would move the United States to a territorial system of business taxation.

• According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the plan would significantly lower marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which would lead to a 3.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 2.9 percent higher wages, and an additional 925,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

• The Senate’s version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is a pro-growth tax plan, which, when fully implemented, would spur an additional $1.26 trillion in federal revenues from economic growth. These new revenues would reduce the cost of the plan substantially. Depending on the baseline used to score the plan, current policy or current law, the new revenues could bring the plan closer to revenue neutral.

• On a static basis, the plan would lead to 1.2 percent higher after-tax income on average for all taxpayers and 4.5 percent higher after-tax income on average for the top 1 percent in 2027. When accounting for the increased GDP, after-tax incomes of all taxpayers would increase by 4.4 percent in the long run.

• While our results differ from those of the Joint Committee on Taxation, some of these results are attributable to long-standing differences between the two models.

[Jim Robinson]

" Our analysis[2] finds that the Senate plan would reduce marginal tax rates on labor and investment. As a result, we estimate that the plan would increase long-run GDP by 3.7 percent. The larger economy would translate into 2.9 percent higher wages and result in an additional 925,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Due to the larger economy and the broader tax base, the plan would generate $1.26 trillion in additional revenue over the next decade on a dynamic basis."

[rbmillerjr]

Thanks for posting, Jim.

Some conservatives seem to have forgotten what wealth creation is. I’m beginning to think there aren’t too many Reagan/Kemp economic growth conservatives left.

This is it. While the media lazily report on relatively meaningless stories, this is what the GOP, conservatives and bloggers need to get out to the public.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

…would spur an additional $1.26 trillion in federal revenues from economic growth.

And there is EXACTLY what is wrong with this "reform." The tax plan should starve the damn beast. Reduce taxes by sending far, far less tribute to Fedzilla. If that had read "would reduce federal revenues by $1.26 trillion" I would have been very happy. This REALLY hacks me off.

[WilliamIII]

Why are they getting rid of the personal exemptions for individuals? And why are they getting rid of the deduction for state taxes for individuals - but leaving that deduction for businesses?

Clearly, they’re trying to take in more money from upper income individuals, in order to “pay for” tax cuts for businesses. In contrast, Rwagan lowered taxes across the board, for everybody. What they’re doing now is a shell game that lowers business taxes but raises individual taxes for millions of people.

[WilliamIII]

No it wouldn’t starve the beast. They’re raising the tax take on upper income individuals by getting rid of Marie deductions and personal exemptions. This, in order to “pay for” business tax cuts. Instead of paying for them with spending cuts

[Jim Robinson]

Yes, and that would be possible if the congressional leaders had the balls to throw out the rules that hobble them ("Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings").

[Jim Robinson]

Where exactly are they raising the taxes on upper income individuals? The rates all come down and the lower rates apply to wider brackets.

[onona]

And why are they getting rid of the deduction for state taxes for individuals

Because it's high time Joe in Alaska pays taxes for Sally in New Jersey

[onona]

I could not have screwed up that response more if I tried.

[USS Alaska]

And there is EXACTLY what is wrong with this "reform."

Tax plans effect revenue streams, spending programs effect increase/reduction of cash outflow.

The only way to reduce spending is with political will, which Trump has, but not many swamp dwellers will help him.

[Tenacious 1]

Because it's high time Joe in Alaska pays taxes for Sally in New Jersey

Not sure what point you were trying to make there. But the tax plan (which doesn't help me much, if at all), would actually burden people in high tax states by not allowing them to deduct their state taxes from their taxable wages. That said, Joe would be burdened less, assuming Sally paid more as a % of total contribution to the aggregate tax revenue. But alas, Joe doesn't pay state taxes in Alaska. In fact, if he is an Alaska Citizen, he might get oil revenue dividends from the state. Now I am sure that is after the state contributes in some way on his behalf. But he will likely never see a change because of what Sally pays. None of us will, for that matter. It will just increase revenue to the fed by making blue staters pay more to the fed.

[Tenacious 1]

I could not have screwed up that response more if I tried.

LMAO! I should have finished reading comments. Disregard my previous response (now that you have acknowledged aforementioned posting abortion). ;o)

[itsahoot]

Some conservatives seem to have forgotten what wealth creation is.

They have Damn sure forgotten what wins elections.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Jim Rob. Some sidebars:

• Donald Trump, Schumer Battle Over Amnesty on Tuesday
• Trump Tweet:Meeting with "Chuck and Nancy" today about keeping government open and ...
• Schumer, Pelosi cancel meeting with Trump as shutdown showdown begins
• Fact Check: Claim That GOP Tax Reform Would 'Raise Taxes on the Middle Class' (tr)
• Why the Tax bill will destroy Blue State Republicans AND the national Democrat Party
• Mitch McConnell & Cronies Continue To Stall Trump Tax Cuts & Defend Obamacare
• 'Enough of This Mess': Judge Jeanine Blasts Taxpayer-Funded Sexual Harassment Settlement Fund
• Why A Corporate Tax Cut Won't Boost Economic Growth
• Ivanka in Bayville: Tax reform will be the law of unintended consequences | Mulshine
• How the GOP Tax Plan Can Help Small Businesses More
• Tax Cut Evangelist Warns This GOP Tax Plan Doesn't Really Cut Taxes
• GOP Needs Reinvented Reaganism -- Now
• Trump Announces: 'The Tax Cut Bill Is Coming Along Very Well'
• How the GOP Tax Plan Can Help Small Businesses More

[Sam Gamgee]

Typical Senate budget. For F sake, they just insist on keeping all those tax brackets. And want to delay corporate tax cuts to 2019. They may as well be telling the American people “Heh, we have an opportunity to build a great economy, but decided that you can wait until 2019 for that. Until then, good luck”. Swamp creatures.

[House Atreides]

The Senate Budget committee just voted the tax bill out of committee.

[cherry]

if anyone thinks they're safe with this so called "tax cut" you're in for a big surprise...

not this year, or next but in a few yrs when the reality of taking away deductions that have been with us for DECADES starts to hit home...

Property taxes do not go down...they go up..as do other state taxes...and all of that tax will be taxed as well....

we're idiots if we can't see what they're doing...

but got to protect their beloved elite class of Wall streeters...

[Theodore R.]

Wasn’t PRyan somehow connected to Jack French Kemp; can’t recall how though.