Posted on 07/11/2017 10:18:31 PM PDT by nickcarraway
The placement of Iskander-M Brigades in Russias Eastern Military District reflects continued uneasiness about China.
In early June 2017, Russian media reported that yet another Ground Forces missile brigade received the dreaded road-mobile 9K720 Iskander-M missile system (known in Russian military parlance as an operational-tactical missile system, or OTRK in short). The brigade in question is the 29th Armys newly established 3rd Missile Brigade, based in Russias colossal Eastern Military District (MD). Formed in December 2016, this brigade was initially armed with the aging 9K79-1 Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile system, and became the Eastern MDs fourth missile brigade to be re-equipped with the Iskander-M as part of the Russian Defense Ministrys plan to phase out all Tochka-Us by 2020. The districts three other brigades the 107th, 103rd and 20th received their Iskander-M OTRKs in 2013, 2015, and 2016, respectively. As a result, there are presently more Iskander-M brigades in the Eastern MD than any other district; Russias other three military districts (Central, Southern, and Western) currently house two Iskander-M brigades each. What, then, is the purpose of these four brigades?
Whereas the task of Iskander-M OTRKs being deployed in Russias Western MD is to hold U.S. and allied forces in the Baltics and Poland at risk, the systems stationed in the Eastern MD appear to primarily serve a different purpose: strengthening both Russias conventional and nuclear deterrence against China. Indeed, while an Iskander-M system stationed in Russias Kaliningrad Oblast allows Russia to target a wide range of NATO military assets, including the Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in Poland, an Iskander-M stationed in Russias Far East has very limited ability to threaten U.S. forces deployed in the region.
According to Russian sources, the Iskander-Ms 9M723-series of quasi-ballistic missiles have a range of 400-500 kilometers (250-310 miles), while the 9M728/R-500 ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) frequently erroneously referred to as the Iskander-K possesses a range of under 500 km. This largely restricts the Iskander-M to targets on Japans Hokkaido Prefecture, leaving key U.S. military assets, including the AN/TPY-2 BMD radar in Japans Amoroi Prefecture and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea, beyond the systems reach. A possible exception is Misawa Air Base in the east of Aomori Prefecture; however, targeting this facility would require deploying the Iskander-M to the southern tip of Kunashir Island in the Kurils.
Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. In this regard, the Kremlin no longer permanently bases missile brigades within close proximity to Japan as it did during the Cold War (the USSR maintained a missile brigade on the southern section of Sakhalin Island in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk). The two Iskander-M brigades in Russias Far East the 107th and 20th are based in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast and Primorsky Krai, respectively. Both of these regions border China. The latter region also encompasses Russias 17 km (10.5 mile) land border with North Korea, suggesting that the primary purpose of the two far eastern brigades is containing China and responding to contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.
At the same time, the basing locations of the Eastern MDs other two Iskander-M brigades likewise point to a focus on China; the 103rd Missile Brigade is stationed in Russias Republic of Buryatia, which borders Mongolia, while the newly formed 3rd Missile Brigade is based in Gorny (once known as Chita-46) in Zabaykalsky Krai a region that borders Chinas Inner Mongolia Province.
Russian Ground Forces missile brigades that have been/ will be equipped with the 9K720 Iskander-M OTRK. Courtesy of Dr. Roger N. McDermott. Though the Kremlin has been careful not to voice long-term concerns about China, perhaps the most telling examples of Moscows continued uneasiness regarding the growing military might of its neighbour have been large-scale Russian military exercises held in the Eastern MD. As Dr. Roger N. McDermott, senior fellow in Eurasian military studies at the Jamestown Foundation, concludes in his analysis on the large-scale Vostok (East) 2014 exercise involving some 100,000 personnel, Vostok 2014, much like its earlier incarnation in 2010, contains strong evidence that the Russian General Staff continues to consider China a potential threat to Russia. Given the persisting concern, basing Iskander-M OTRKs in regions bordering Chinas Northern Theater Command is a logical move from Russias perspective. Indeed, the systems ability to deliver a wide range of cluster munitions makes it particularly suitable for use against Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) armor and infantry in the event of an armed confrontation.
Furthermore, the Iskander-M is also able to deliver various non-cluster warheads with a relatively high degree of accuracy a capability which Russian officials have repeatedly praised the system for, including during military exercises in the Eastern MD. Reporting to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the launch of Iskander-M quasi-ballistic missiles during Vostok 2014 (which took place from a test range in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Iskander-M units hit two targets at a distance of 200 km (124 miles), adding that [t]he combat crews demonstrated outstanding practical skills, including precision in hitting targets. Similarly, in August 2016, Russias Defense Ministry boasted that a missile launched by an Iskander-M unit from the Jewish Autonomous Oblast during a military exercise scored a direct hit against a simulated target some 300 km (186 miles) away in the neighboring Amur Oblast. The participation of the Iskander-M and other advanced strike systems in these and other military exercises across Russia appears to reflect Moscows understanding that precision-strike capabilities must play a greater role in future military operations against both non-state and state actors, including China, which has been actively bolstering its own precision-strike capabilities.
At the same time, the Iskander-Ms ability to deliver nuclear payloads reinforces Russias nuclear de-escalation doctrine, which aims to deter an adversary from engaging in hostilities by threatening to retaliate with a limited nuclear strike. Given Russias eroding conventional military superiority over the PLA, nuclear weapons, particularly non-strategic systems such as the Iskander-M, are likely to play an increasingly important role in deterring China. Indeed, as Dr. Alexei Arbatov and Major General Vladimir Dvorkin (Ret.) observe in a 2013 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report, it may be assumed that Russias strategic nuclear forces, as well as some of its non-strategic nuclear weapons, do serve a mission of containing China.
Commenting on Russias 2010 Military Doctrine, which states that [n]uclear weapons will remain an important factor for preventing the outbreak of nuclear military conflicts and military conflicts involving the use of conventional means of attack (a large-scale war or regional war), the two experts conclude that [i]n terms of military logic, to mention a regional war in such a context can only suggest a hypothetical conflict with China. Russias 2014 Military Doctrine reiterates the 2010s statement on the use of nuclear weapons, indicating Moscow continues to adhere to this line of thought.
All of the above notwithstanding, Iskander-M brigades in Russias Eastern MD merit close watch by the United States given the possibility of missiles with longer ranges being fielded with this OTRK that would enable it to hold U.S. assets in the region at risk. Such missiles would also fail to comply with the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which bans ballistic missiles and GLCMs with ranges of 500-5,500 km (310-3,417 miles). In fact, Russian officials have previously stated that the range of the Iskander-Ms R-500 GLCM could be extended if deemed necessary. Moreover, it is possible that an upgraded GLCM for the Iskander-M is already under development or operational. However, it should be noted that even if such a GLCM does exist, it remains unclear whether its range exceeds 500 km and whether it is affiliated with a new Russian GLCM that allegedly violates the INF Treaty (dubbed SSC-8 by NATO).
Recent developments further support the possibility of Russia extending the Iskander-Ms reach (if it hasnt done so already). In April 2017, the director general of Russias Rostec Corporation, Sergey Chemezov, noted that a modernized variant of the Iskander-M OTRK will be presented after 2020. Though Chemezov did not provide additional details, a meeting held between the head of Russias Missile and Artillery Troops and representatives of Russias military industry a month later shed further light on the potential improvements to the system. According to Russias Defense Ministry, the meeting discussed the question of developing new missiles with improved range and accuracy for the Iskander-M. Should Moscow introduce new longer range missiles for the Iskander-M (and/or for a new road-mobile missile system) in its Eastern MD, they will strengthen Russias position vis-a-vis China, which fields both ballistic missiles and GLCMs with greater ranges than those currently in use with the Iskander-M. However, the deployment of such missiles will also have serious implications for regional stability.
Guy Plopsky holds an MA in International Affairs and Strategic Studies from Tamkang University, Taiwan. He specializes in air power, Russian military affairs and Asia-Pacific security. You can follow him on Twitter.
I can think of another country, not mentioned in the article, about which Russia might have concerns. It’s between Japan and China.
Isn't everybody?
When did the Russians NOT have missiles aimed at China?
i would be shocked if Russia has not always had China targeted.
During a military briefing a number of years ago it was pointed out that Russia has only 150 million people and there is a possibility that another country could invade it and the only thing the Russians could do is shoot themselves, ie, the invaders in their own country
I think Putin knows that some religious group or other could invade (move in) and they could do nothing about it.
Anyone who’s ever played RISK knows why.
Indeed.
They've fought a number of substantial border skirmishes over the years.
China and Russia have always been uneasy allies, going back to the disagreements between Stalin and Mao Ze-dong. Each thought the other was trying for full control of the Communist ideology and hegemony over the rest of the world.
They were both right, for what that’s worth. One mountain isn’t enough for two tigers.
The Russians have always stationed their best troops and best equipment in the border regions, even during the height of the Cold War.
Lots of letters, numbers and Z’s in that article
Remember when Willie Jeff Clinton (and his adoring press) made a big deal about Russia taking their missiles off target to America, and he was hailed by the press as a Great Hero to the people? Guess what? It takes about 3 minutes to aim a missile (missiles are essentially computers that go boom). So, the fact that RUSSIA is targeting missiles at China isn’t a big deal because inside of three minutes those same missiles could be aimed at just about anybody. This really isn’t news, it’s gesturing.
Russia is a thinly populated country with huge assets of minerals and timber. I looked for a good satellite photo but couldn’t find one. I read that some of the border regions on the Chinese side are densely populated, but just across the border there is nothing on the Russian side. Perhaps a few guard shacks spaced evenly along the fence.
The Russian population, last I checked, is below replacement at 1.4 per couple. In a few generations Russia, with a GDP neat that of South Korea, will be a country with a few populated cities in the far west but almost no outlying population near China. What are the odds that China is not eyeing the frontier as a good place to expand? The only thing stopping them now is Russia’s nuclear capability.
That country isn’t a threat to Russia.
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