Posted on 05/05/2017 9:08:05 AM PDT by Kaslin
Welcome back to the status quo ante. After an unexpectedly poor March, the US economy returned to its previous pace of job creation, adding 211,000 jobs in April according to today’s jobs report. However, nearly as many people left the workforce last month as got jobs within it.
In fact, March turned out to be worse than previously reported:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up from +219,000 to +232,000, and the change for March was revised down from +98,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 6,000 lower than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 174,000.
While participation rates didn’t change much, it does appear that workers transitioned from part-time to full-time work in greater numbers. That follows a year-long trend away from part-time employment:
The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, changed little in April and has shown little movement over the past year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.2 percent, was also little changed over the month but was up by 0.5 percentage point since December. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 281,000 to 5.3 million in April. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons has decreased by 698,000. (See table A-8.)
The official jobless rate (U-3) declined to 4.4%, its best showing in exactly ten years, but it’s a measure which is difficult to compare because of the change in composition of the work force. The U-6 rate, which compensates somewhat for those changes as well as counts underemployment, dropped significantly in April to 8.6%, the best reading since November 2007, just before the initial recession that led to the Great Recession.
Most of the job growth in April came in the service sectors. Goods-producing sectors only added 21,000 jobs, 10K of which came in mining and logging. The leisure and hospitality sector got the biggest boost, adding 55,000 jobs, with education and health services coming in second at 41,000. Hours and earnings also ticked upward, with the weekly earnings average rising five dollars, which is a positive sign if not particularly overwhelming in its impact.
Overall, this looks like pretty good news, but not spectacular and probably not a sign of a coming boom — yet, anyway. Excluding the big miss in March, it’s the weakest report in 2017 by a slight amount, and not a large amount over the maintenance rate for population growth (~125-150K). It’s certainly better than last month, and better than the last quarter of 2016, but it’s not gangbusters. It’s basically the status quo over the last two years, as this chart from BLS demonstrates:
Reuters took a more optimistic view of the results, which beat expectations by more than 20K, but predicts the Fed will raise interest rates after this report:
U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in April and the unemployment rate dropped to a near 10-year low of 4.4 percent, signs of a tightening labor market that could seal the case for an interest rate increase next month despite moderate wage growth.
Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 211,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, well above the monthly average of 185,000 for this year and a jump from the gain of 79,000 in March. …
The rebound in hiring supports the Federal Reserve’s contention that the pedestrian 0.7 percent annualized economic growth pace in the first quarter was likely “transitory,” and its optimism that economic activity would expand at a “moderate” pace.
The AP’s Christopher Rugaber calls the job creation pace “brisk,” but offers a more tempered view overall:
The figures suggest that businesses expect consumer demand to rebound after a lackluster first quarter, when Americans increased spending at the slowest pace in seven years, and will need more employees.
Still, average paychecks grew more slowly in April, increasing 2.5 percent over the past 12 months, below March’s year-over-year gain. Typically, employers are forced to pay more as they compete for a smaller pool of unemployed workers. Hourly pay gains are usually closer to 3.5 percent in a strong economy. …
Still, average hourly pay has remained well below the roughly 3.5 percent annual pay gains typical of a healthy economy. Inflation has also picked up, eroding even that limited income growth. With the unemployment rate low, companies may eventually have to pay more to attract and keep employees.
One trend that could hold back pay gains would be a flood of job-seekers coming off the sidelines and looking for work. That would give businesses more potential employees to hire, thereby reducing the need to pay more.
I’d dispute the “brisk” characterization, especially given the chart above, but Rugaber’s correct in the signals on personal consumable expenditures (PCEs). Service-industry businesses appear to be betting that consumer spending will rebound in services, even if not so much in goods. The slow wage growth might be temporary, though, as more workers transition from part-time to full-time work, trading hours temporarily for pay increases. If those bets don’t pay off, the first place we’ll likely see that is a reversal in the PT-FT trend and a freeze on wage growth.
Update: Hmmmm. Obama administration official Steve Rattner belatedly seems concerned over the low labor-force participation rate, especially among working-age men:
Despite strong jobs growth, LF Participation flat at 62.9%. In particular, decline of prime age men in LF is v concerning. via @jasonfurman pic.twitter.com/CvzNKrvqfD
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) May 5, 2017
We were told for the last four years that the US has reached full employment, and that the LFPR was low because people had retired out of the workforce. Looks like that’s wrong … now that the Obama administration has exited the stage.
Still vast majority service jobs and labor participation rate is the same, but the guy’s only been in for less than 4 months.
It’s still a step in the right direction but honestly, even if it wasn’t good, I would imagine it takes 6 to 8 months or more for the current president’s policies to take effect on the number.
The obamacare taxes are still out there and the income tax hasn’t been cut yet.
You’ll see YUGE numbers several months after that
Coal regulation cuts are likely just beginning to affect he number of workers and offshore etc. will bring many jobs in the next year or so.
I’m patient :)
How replies with this thread get, before someone starts whining and moaning instead of saying, “Good work, Mr. President!”
Please note my tagline!
Agreed, dp. If the Senate keeps the repeal of Obamacare pretty much as is, it’ll create a huge tax cut. Then President Trump’s upcoming tax cuts (if passed) will ignite the economy in a way very seldom seen. It’ll be interesting to hear the Dims whining through roaring economic growth.
I don’t trust the way the numbers are reported...
Good Work Mr. President!!
The article sounds like its is downplaying....
Oh Zero could do no wrong but for the mess he made!
Thank you President Trump? Obviously we missed the part where these jobs were brought back due to the brilliant ground work laid out by X (p)resident bronco before he left the WH. LOL! You know the msm pundits will do that. ;-)
The local Faux tv station had a problem just reading the results.
I sent them a text and told them to skip their anti Trump bs and just read the results.
The next two half hours, just had the data and no left wing bs.
Interesting and entertaining :)
BUT, unlike Reagan, Trump has the congress (i know, don’t laugh) and needs to push these morons HARD in September budget.
They got one by him as he has all of 100 something days in political office.
It won’t happen again.
I noticed recently that the local Faux station here on channel 25 is labeling themselves as "Boston 25". Whereas they used to be "MyFoxBoston".
I'm not sure how long it's been going on but I noticed it last week. I stopped watching their "news" in the morning.
I know the national Fox News has been slipping, but on a scale, compared to the alphabet stations, they're still better.
The next two half hours, just had the data and no left wing bs.
Almost shocking that they did not double down!
GO TRUMP!!
A Trumpster.....!
ust now saw this ad in dice, They want H1B only, no interview. Salary is so low.
______________________
The following requirement is open with our client.
Title : Onshore lead Site reliability engineer
Location : Sunnyvale, CA
Duration : 12 Months
Rate : $ 50/hr on C2C
Visa Status : H1B
In-Person Interview : No
Experience (Years) : 4-6 Relevant / 4-8 Total
Competencies: Support, Java, J2EE, Splunk, Unix, shell script
Role
Onshore lead Site reliability engineer
Mandatory Technical Skills
Onshore lead Site reliability engineer for Apple SIM (cellular data services)
Technical competence in Unix systems tools, writing shell scripts.
Understand, debug and improve Java code, good knowledge about SQL and NoSQL databases, network application troubleshooting.
Expert in making new queries and dashboards in Splunk.
Proactiveness and strong self-initiative.
Be part of 24x7 support team of a P0 app.
Need to have good communication skills to interact with external teams.
I sure do, but that arrogant pos former occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is getting no credit from me.
Many people are in jobs that are significantly under their former pay grades. Many people would change jobs if others were available in their area.
Hour wages are not great.
Finally, hitting full employment (under 5%) with an anemic recovery should have a lot of people shaking in their boots.
People can suggest this is due to Trump. Personally, I think this is some of the worst news for Trump. “Records” do not come at the beginning of a recovery. They comes at the end.
Well, I do have to give him credit. For making the divisiveness the worst I’ve seen in nearly 70 years.
“I sure do, but that arrogant pos former occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is getting no credit from me.”
BOL! Don’t hold back tell us what you really think about Obama!
It’s good to see the economy producing new jobs again. But it’s going to take a long time to replace the jobs Ozero destroyed. But the good news is that, if the Deep State admitted to 211,000 new jobs under Trump, the real number was probably north of 1 million.
How long until Trump audits the completely phony jobs reports issued under the regime of the Kenyan Usurper?
Kenyan Usurper lol. Miss the old names. DONT MISS HIM!!
Who puts out these numbers anyway?
Well, if you can’t figure out how I feel about 0bama, that’s just tough.
I wish they would revise the way unemployment figures are “figured”.
I was always taught that 5% unemployment was “full” employment. There is no way we are at 4.4%
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.