Posted on 11/06/2016 9:29:55 AM PST by Ravi
Loudonville,NY . Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by double digits, although the gap has narrowed a little to 17 points (51-34 percent), down from 24 points(54-30 percent ),according to a new Siena College poll of likely New York State registered voters released today.
(Excerpt) Read more at siena.edu ...
ping
Good point.
While Hillary is comfortably ahead in polls in many of the “blue” states won by Obama, she is not getting the margin of victory which Obama got.
Remember too, Obama won re-election in 2012 with less support than he got in his first election. He got about 51% of the popular vote, to about 47% for Romney, with the rest scattered among other candidates.
bottom line is that if Hillary is winning these Democrat states with a lesser margin than in 2012, then these trends are likely happening everywhere. And thus Trump has an excellent chance of winning.
Well, good but 17 sure won’t make NY close.
Good point. That would be Trump +7 nationwide. I don’t actually believe it’s that close, but it’s a hint that Hillary is several points behind Trump - among living voters. We cannot get complacent and let things slide on Election Day. Remember that fictional, dead, and illegal voter turnout is 100% democrat. We have to overwhelm not just the parasitic and insider democrats but also their fraud. We need to put everything we have into Election Day this year.
Trump makes NY 10 pts. or less.
Mont. Co., OH Rs (INCLUDING I’s allocated) are outperforming 2012 by 6.
So, could be 6 point swing nationally. That’s PA, MI.
The water is beginning to top the dam!
I’ve mentioned this on other New York State polling related threads that I bet once you get out of Albany, NYC-Manhattan and student areas like Syracuse, Donald probably does very well in places like Watertown-Ogdensburg, Rochester, Buffalo, Central Leatherstocking, most of Long Island, White Plains, Schenectady, etc.
Trump can get 45%
If Clinton polls less than 90% of the black vote , she will lose virtually every battleground state.
i posted this the other day..i live two miles from the clinton’s and on the way home from the office Thursday night there was a huge sign on the parkway before the chappaqua exit which read “DEFEAT CROOKED HILLARY!! VOTE TRUMP!!”
there was also a Trump/Pence sign on the highway (Saw Mill River Pkwy)...off the chappaqua exit there were a bunch of gary johnson signs but no clinton signs...this weekend several Tea Party groups from our area are pounding the pavement in Pa for Trump...
there’s a major state construction project ongoing at the highway...one of the backhoes they use has three Trump stickers on it...
this is still an uber left wing area but there is also a deep hatred for clinton around here...
“A couple of quick points. Romney lost by 4 nationally and lost New York by 28. If Trump is losing by 17 in this Siena College Poll of New York, my guess is he is up nationwide.”
Devil’s Advocate here: NY is Trump’s home state. He always would do better than Romney in NY. I’d be more encouraged to see him doing better than Romney in CT, NJ and MA.
I personally know of three Latinos, four AA, several Asians, and a lot of Jews voting for Trump....in NYC of all places! I was shocked when they finally came out and admitted it :)
Siena last poll in 2012 had Obama +24
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html
What you say is true of course, but NYC elected a communist for Mayor so it would take some doing to get those types of voters to vote Trump.
Trump is polling about 7 points better here in NJ compared to Romney’s 2012 results.
Trump is polling about 7 points better here in NJ compared to Romney’s 2012 results.
Taking 1 state, the home state of one of the candidate’s and extrapolating that to the entire country is pretty shaky. It’s not like their aren’t national polls to look at.
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