6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes

CNN ^ | Eric Bradner

[SJackson]

Washington (CNN) — Donald Trump's path to 270 electoral votes remains precarious -- but with some breaks, he can get there.

Trump's campaign has made clear exactly what its targets are. It is spending $25 million on TV ads in the final week of the campaign in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Those ad buys are based on the assumption that Trump doesn't need extra help to keep Arizona, Georgia, Utah, Texas or any other traditionally red state in the Republican column.

Can Teleprompter Trump stay disciplined?

Trump starts with four must-wins: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa.

Those -- plus making sure he doesn't surrender other typically Republican states, and winning the one electoral vote that can come from Maine's Second Congressional District -- get Trump to 260 electoral votes.

"We believe 100% that we're winning all four of those. And once we do that, then we put ourselves in a position to win one of those other swing states," Trump deputy campaign manager David Bossie said.

The other targets include bigger states -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia and Michigan, any one of which would put Trump over the top -- and smaller states, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, of which he'd have to win two.

Those make up Hillary Clinton's firewall, and Trump has to crack it somewhere.

"I think all of those, we are closer in some than others, but we're within the margin of error in many. We are fighting for every single vote," Bossie said.

[SJackson]

Details at link. Probably more than six ways.

[NohSpinZone]

All this assumes that Cankles holds onto her entire firewall. That’s looking like a tough challenge with each day.

[Stosh]

“Teleprompter Trump”?

Eight years, and these jackasses have never seen Obama stumble around for a thought if hasn’t been projected for him?

[KC_Conspirator]

...Arizona, Georgia, Utah, Texas or any other traditionally red state in the Republican column.

Because he does NOT need them. Any poll showing otherwise is a straight up lie. Always has been.

[loveliberty2]

If enough citizens understood the basic idea underlying their "People's" Constitution, then the answer might be less in doubt as to whether they might vote for a presidential candidate whose liberal/progressive ideology would turn their Declaration's people-over-government ideas upside down in favor of coercive government control of individuals and freedom!

Our Constitution embodied a UNIQUE IDEA. Nothing like it had ever been done before. The power of the idea was in the recognition that people's rights are granted directly by the Creator - not by the state - and that the people, then, and only then, grant rights to government. The concept is so simple, yet so very fundamental and far-reaching.

CREATOR

People

Government

America's founders embraced a previously unheard-of political philosophy which held that people are "...endowed BY THEIR CREATOR with certain unalienable rights...." This was the statement of guiding principle for the new nation, and, as such, had to be translated into a concrete charter for government. The Constitution of The United States of America became that charter.

Other forms of government, past and present, rely on the state as the grantor of human rights. America's founders, however, believed that a government made up of imperfect people exercising power over other people should possess limited powers. Through their Constitution, they wished to "secure the blessings of liberty" for themselves and for posterity by limiting the powers of government. Through it, they delegated to government only those rights they wanted it to have, holding to themselves all powers not delegated by the Constitution. They even provided the means for controlling those powers they had granted to government.

This was the unique American idea. Many problems we face today result from a departure from this basic concept. Gradually, other "ideas" have influenced legislation which has reversed the roles and given government greater and greater power over individuals. Early generations of Americans pledged their lives to the cause of in­dividual freedom and limited government and warned, over and over again, that eternal vigilance would be required to preserve that freedom for posterity.

---

Footnote: "Our Ageless Constitution," W. David Stedman & La Vaughn G. Lewis, Editors (Asheboro, NC, W. David Stedman Associates, 1987) Part III:  ISBN 0-937047-01-5

[trebb]

CNN doesn't like the current trend and wants to dampen our enthusiasm by calling it "precarious" while admitting he has a shot.

GO TRUMP-PENCE!!!

[ConservativeDude]

if we hear early in the evening that NH or even PA has gone Trump....we know it’s all over.

[Red Badger]

Can Teleprompter Trump stay disciplined?

They never said that about Obozo and his intimate relationship with at teleprompter.................

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

Real clear Politcs, Create your own map. Use the no Toss Up option.

1. Flip NH and Me 1-based on current polling doable

2. Flip PA. Based on current polling doable.

3. Flip Va. Based on current polling doable.

4 Flip Co. Based on current polling doable.

5. Flip NM. Based on current polling possible but doubtful.

6. Flip MI Based on current polling possible but doubtful.

7. Flip WI .Based on current polling possible but doubtful.

[USCG SimTech]

RI might be the only New England state NOT Trump. You wait and see.

[Gay State Conservative]

Lots and lots of ads on local Boston TV from both candidates.They're obviously not aimed at Massachusetts,or nearby parts of Connecticut or Rhode Island because The Former Twelfth Lady will carry all three by 60-40.They're aimed at New Hampshire's 4 EVs.The most heavily populated part of the state is basically a suburb of Boston and watches Boston TV and listens to Boston radio.

[Carl Vehse]

Trump needs FL, OH, NC, and IA plus the usual GOP states. The key is PA, which would put him over the 270.

Yes, theoretically there are other combinations of WI, MI, MN, CO, VA, but if Trump doesn’t get PA, those combinations are less probable.

If Trump picks up PA, VA, and NH early in the evening, there definitely could be a landslide,... except for the left coast loser states.

[Alberta's Child]

I didn't really see that as an insult. It was really a reflection of reality.

Obama needs a teleprompter because he's too dumb to think for himself.

Trump isn't dumb at all, but he needs a teleprompter because he rambles all over the place if he's left to speak on his own.

[nralife]

"Can Teleprompter Trump stay disciplined?"

Yeah, right!

[jjotto]

Just to review:

Using simplest path, Trump needs to flip 63 electoral votes over Romney in 2012.

The closest states where Obama edged Romney were:

(lost by % of vote) (EVs) EV total
Florida (<1%) (29) 29
Ohio (1.9) (18) 47
Virginia (3) (13) 60
Colorado (4.7) (9) 69

next five closest
Pennsylvania (5.2) (20) 20
Iowa (5.6) (6) 26
New Hampshire (5.8) (4) 30
Nevada (6.6) (6) 36
Wisconsin (6.7) (10) 46

This assumes the GOP keeps NC, which Romney won by a 2.2% margin.

[Gay State Conservative]

RI might be the only New England state NOT Trump. You wait and see.

Rhode Island 2008....Obola 63-McCain 35

Rhode Island 2012....Obola 63-Romney 35

And for the record,Rhode Island is one of only several states where Obola got as large a percentage of the vote in '12 as he did in '08.

[Wayne07]

If we hear early PA has gone Trump, I’m immediately popping the champagne corks.

[SJackson]

Obama is incapable of speaking off teleprompter. Trump is quite capable but like most people he will address issues as they’re brought up, not turn the conversation to the handful of issues he wants to stress. I think it’s a legitimate point, though the issue isn’t the teleprompter which he doesn’t need, rather focusing on the few most vote winning issues. He seems to be effectively doing that of late and leaving the extraneous personal stuff alone. He can do it five more days. After the election, all these issues will be important.

[wise_caucasian]

Trump is currently leading in the polling averages for NV. He is trailing slightly in ME CD2. Assuming he wins all traditionally red states + OH, NC, FL, and IA, he has 259 EVs. Current RCP polling averages for the swing states are as follows:
+NV (6) 265 Trump +2.0
+ME CD2 (1) 266 Clinton +0.7
+CO (9) 275 Clinton +1.7
+NH (4) 279 Clinton +3.3
+PA (20) 299 Clinton +3.4
+VA (13) 312 Clinton +4.7

Based on the above, NV + CO looks like to easiest path.

[wise_caucasian]

If Trump wins PA, I think VA and NH are also in the bag. This would be a 300 plus Trump night.