Skip to comments.Clinton Hangs On To 1-Point As Email Scandal Fallout Turns Toxic – IBD/TIPP Poll
Posted on 11/01/2016 2:49:08 AM PDT by FlyingFish
Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump remained at 1 point 45% to 44% in a four-way race as Friday's latest revelations in the email scandal continued to shake the Clinton campaign, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.
This continues a three-day slide in the IBD/TIPP Poll for Clinton after FBI Director James Comey announced Friday that he's reinstating the bureau's investigation into Clinton's homebrew email server while she was secretary of state.
In just three days, Clinton has largely lost a 4-point lead. But not to third party candidates. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets just 4% of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%.
Unrounded data now give Hillary Clinton a 44.6%-43.7% lead over Trump in a four-way matchup, or less than 1%. Johnson stands at 4.2% and Stein at 2.1%. Meanwhile, in a two-way matchup excluding Johnson and Stein, Clinton clings to a 44.7% to 43.9% lead -- a mere 0.8 percentage point.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
“polling data show Clinton losing support among key groups, especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%”
The all important weighting
Dem +7 but nothing on demographics. With the early voting nationwide showing almost +5 Rep and -4.5 Dem, it speaks for itself. Even the “lauded” IBD is still trying to drag her across the line.
Interesting...the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll re who they expect to win also has Clinton on the way down but at 55.2% and Trump on the way up at 40.2%.
Yet this poll still has her up by a point. How can that be with such decisive independent support for trump?
If you make your sample D+7% and make sure that the I is a very small proportion (27%) they can fix it.
Hillary is in full meltdown mode, by the way:
Where is Huma?
That does actually matter... There are a small percentage (less than 5%) of voters that will simply vote for the candidate that they perceive as the clear winner because they want to fell like they are on the winning side. Psychologists call it the "bandwagon effect". If a race is perceived as close and there is not a clear winner, that nullifies the bandwagon effect.
D+7, Indies only 27%.
I haven’t seen the cross tabs on other demos, but they bury bias by over sampling other groups favorable to Marxists - minorities, women, college grads, etc.
The reasons I believe Hillary will "win" the election:
1. Rigged voting machines in selected states and counties (all she needs are very selected and slim margins in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania). Soros rigged electronic machines, felons voting in Virginia, manipulated ballots, and other fraud has already been well documented. The poll watchers will be powerless, as they were in 2008 and 2012, and not one judge will assist with complaints. Further, there is absolute, concrete, 100% sure proof the Democrat primary was rigged (we even had live footage of one example), and absolutely nothing was done, other than some mild protests. Vote fraud and rigging has been weaponized.
2. Illegals, by the millions, "voting."
3. The continued assistance and coverup by 95% of the media.
I will continue to pray for Trump and this nation. But I don't think I am wrong.
These one and two point leads flip-flopping over the last few months are a joke. Furthermore, at this point, it should be 70/30 for Trump.
Somebody REALLY needs to tap Hillary on the shoulder and remind that although we know she is really old, trying to run on the "Cold War - Red Scare" like its 1960 is probably not the best strategy in 2016. Most people today consider Russia pretty low on the threat list. Somewhere below ISIS, North Korea and probably even China. And trying to dreg up fears of KGB spies hiding around ever corner is laughable.
The advantage of voter fraud is being greatly overstated. If you think that there is no one there to counter this you are living under a rock. We are very well prepared in VA and these other states with a huge influx of election officers ready to deal with this problem.
Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii 25m25 minutes ago Once again, IBD reweights their R+3 actual sample to D+7 in order to preserve Hillary 1 point lead. Such bullsh*t.
Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii 28m28 minutes ago IBD ridiculous reweight: Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 323 Democrats/354 Republicans/327 Independents; (Weighted) 400/329/273
I think you are leaving out the crucial element that will overcome your prediction.
Could Donald Trump have rigged Anthony Weiner being under investigation for sexual predation with a child? Answer: no. That was entirely based on the behavior of Anthony Weiner. It was circumstance that had him caught.
Could Donald Trump have rigged 650,000 emails being on Weiners laptop placed there in some manner by his wife? Answer: no.
Could Donald Trump have rigged Huma Abedin being Hillary’s closest confidant with access to every email relevant to her operations? Answer: no.
Conclusion: in the same way that I believed Obama would be president when a hurricane put him ovee the top, I now believe that Trump will go over the top. I think God is working something out. Daniel 4: God elevates the basest of men to be kings.
Not good. (her continued lead)
Good news. (the movement away from her)
>especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%<
Pretty impressive to claim that Trump is winning by 15% among independents but losing the race. The sad thing is it’s true . . . when you count fictional and dead voters. We need an extra surge to get over that final hurtle, vote fraud.
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