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Clinton Hangs On To 1-Point As Email Scandal Fallout Turns Toxic IBD/TIPP Poll
IBD ^ | Nov 1, 2016 | IBD

Posted on 11/01/2016 2:49:08 AM PDT by FlyingFish

Hillary Clinton's edge over Donald Trump remained at 1 point – 45% to 44% – in a four-way race as Friday's latest revelations in the email scandal continued to shake the Clinton campaign, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

This continues a three-day slide in the IBD/TIPP Poll for Clinton after FBI Director James Comey announced Friday that he's reinstating the bureau's investigation into Clinton's homebrew email server while she was secretary of state.

In just three days, Clinton has largely lost a 4-point lead. But not to third party candidates. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets just 4% of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%.

Unrounded data now give Hillary Clinton a 44.6%-43.7% lead over Trump in a four-way matchup, or less than 1%. Johnson stands at 4.2% and Stein at 2.1%. Meanwhile, in a two-way matchup excluding Johnson and Stein, Clinton clings to a 44.7% to 43.9% lead -- a mere 0.8 percentage point.

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; elections; hillary; ibd; poll; polls; trump
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Interesting comment in article: regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.
1 posted on 11/01/2016 2:49:08 AM PDT by FlyingFish
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To: FlyingFish

“polling data show Clinton losing support among key groups, especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%”


2 posted on 11/01/2016 2:59:55 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: FlyingFish

The all important weighting

Dem 39.29
Rep 32.32
Ind 26.82

Dem +7 but nothing on demographics. With the early voting nationwide showing almost +5 Rep and -4.5 Dem, it speaks for itself. Even the “lauded” IBD is still trying to drag her across the line.


3 posted on 11/01/2016 3:01:40 AM PDT by mazda77 (The solution: Vote Trump)
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To: FlyingFish
...regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.

Interesting...the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll re who they expect to win also has Clinton on the way down but at 55.2% and Trump on the way up at 40.2%.

4 posted on 11/01/2016 3:02:31 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod (To restore all things in Christ. ~~~~ Appeasing evil is cowardice.)
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To: Helicondelta

Yet this poll still has her up by a point. How can that be with such decisive independent support for trump?


5 posted on 11/01/2016 3:03:04 AM PDT by Nicojones
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To: FlyingFish
We need to also remember that on election day the undecided break about 2-1 for the challenger which, since Hillary is running as Obama’s 3rd term, is Trump. So to most of these polls you can add another 3% or so....
6 posted on 11/01/2016 3:03:15 AM PDT by apillar
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To: Nicojones

If you make your sample D+7% and make sure that the I is a very small proportion (27%) they can fix it.

:-(


7 posted on 11/01/2016 3:06:40 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: Nicojones
The democrat overpollng is around D+9. Pure fiction with all the reports of black turnout way down in early voting.

Hillary is in full meltdown mode, by the way:

Where is Huma?

8 posted on 11/01/2016 3:08:34 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: FlyingFish
Interesting comment in article: regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday

That does actually matter... There are a small percentage (less than 5%) of voters that will simply vote for the candidate that they perceive as the clear winner because they want to fell like they are on the winning side. Psychologists call it the "bandwagon effect". If a race is perceived as close and there is not a clear winner, that nullifies the bandwagon effect.

9 posted on 11/01/2016 3:08:56 AM PDT by apillar
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To: Nicojones

D+7, Indies only 27%.

I haven’t seen the cross tabs on other demos, but they bury bias by over sampling other groups favorable to Marxists - minorities, women, college grads, etc.


10 posted on 11/01/2016 3:10:31 AM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: FlyingFish; SaveFerris; ExTexasRedhead; metmom; xzins
As much as I am enjoying seeing the Clintons stew in this (latest) scandal, I'll go on record as saying I believe that Hillary will "win" the election. If I am wrong, I will dance in the streets and celebrate Trump's victory.

The reasons I believe Hillary will "win" the election:

1. Rigged voting machines in selected states and counties (all she needs are very selected and slim margins in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania). Soros rigged electronic machines, felons voting in Virginia, manipulated ballots, and other fraud has already been well documented. The poll watchers will be powerless, as they were in 2008 and 2012, and not one judge will assist with complaints. Further, there is absolute, concrete, 100% sure proof the Democrat primary was rigged (we even had live footage of one example), and absolutely nothing was done, other than some mild protests. Vote fraud and rigging has been weaponized.

2. Illegals, by the millions, "voting."

3. The continued assistance and coverup by 95% of the media.

I will continue to pray for Trump and this nation. But I don't think I am wrong.

11 posted on 11/01/2016 3:10:59 AM PDT by SkyPilot ("I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." John 14:6)
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To: FlyingFish; All

These one and two point leads flip-flopping over the last few months are a joke. Furthermore, at this point, it should be 70/30 for Trump.


12 posted on 11/01/2016 3:12:39 AM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common any more.)
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To: Helicondelta
Hillary is in full meltdown mode, by the way:

Somebody REALLY needs to tap Hillary on the shoulder and remind that although we know she is really old, trying to run on the "Cold War - Red Scare" like its 1960 is probably not the best strategy in 2016. Most people today consider Russia pretty low on the threat list. Somewhere below ISIS, North Korea and probably even China. And trying to dreg up fears of KGB spies hiding around ever corner is laughable.

13 posted on 11/01/2016 3:14:20 AM PDT by apillar
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To: apillar
And yet O'Reilly showed a poll that 34% of voters will let the new investigation change their vote for Killary. I think any poll showing her with a lead is propaganda. And they are just about getting to where they can't sway the polls enough to show her in the lead.
14 posted on 11/01/2016 3:14:46 AM PDT by wright2bear (#NeverTrump is a mental disorder!)
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To: Helicondelta
I just heard on Fox News this morning that iLLary is preparing fireworks to be lunch for a celebration on Nov 8th from the Hudson river in NYC.
15 posted on 11/01/2016 3:16:45 AM PDT by vinny29
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To: SkyPilot

The advantage of voter fraud is being greatly overstated. If you think that there is no one there to counter this you are living under a rock. We are very well prepared in VA and these other states with a huge influx of election officers ready to deal with this problem.


16 posted on 11/01/2016 3:18:28 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 17m17 minutes ago IBD poll. Trump has 15 point lead w/ Indies yet due to ridiculous reweighting magically loses the poll.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 25m25 minutes ago Once again, IBD reweights their R+3 actual sample to D+7 in order to preserve Hillary 1 point lead. Such bullsh*t.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 28m28 minutes ago IBD ridiculous reweight: Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 323 Democrats/354 Republicans/327 Independents; (Weighted) 400/329/273

17 posted on 11/01/2016 3:22:33 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: SkyPilot

I think you are leaving out the crucial element that will overcome your prediction.

Could Donald Trump have rigged Anthony Weiner being under investigation for sexual predation with a child? Answer: no. That was entirely based on the behavior of Anthony Weiner. It was circumstance that had him caught.

Could Donald Trump have rigged 650,000 emails being on Weiners laptop placed there in some manner by his wife? Answer: no.

Could Donald Trump have rigged Huma Abedin being Hillary’s closest confidant with access to every email relevant to her operations? Answer: no.

Conclusion: in the same way that I believed Obama would be president when a hurricane put him ovee the top, I now believe that Trump will go over the top. I think God is working something out. Daniel 4: God elevates the basest of men to be kings.


18 posted on 11/01/2016 3:25:03 AM PDT by xzins ( Free Republic Gives YOU a voice heard around the globe. Support the Freepathon!)
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To: FlyingFish

Not good. (her continued lead)

Good news. (the movement away from her)

PRAY!


19 posted on 11/01/2016 3:26:52 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Helicondelta

>especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%<

Pretty impressive to claim that Trump is winning by 15% among independents but losing the race. The sad thing is it’s true . . . when you count fictional and dead voters. We need an extra surge to get over that final hurtle, vote fraud.


20 posted on 11/01/2016 3:29:05 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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