Posted on 10/10/2016 6:05:37 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Some background info. According to exit polls:
2012 - AA were 13% of the Florida electorate. Obama took 95% of AA vote.
2008 - AA were 13% of the Florida electorate. Obama took 96% of AA vote.
2004 - AA were 12% of the Florida electorate. Kerry took 86% of AA vote.
2000 - AA were 10% of the Florida electorate. Gore took 90% of AA vote.
If the AA vote goes back down to 12% from 13% of the total electorate in 2016, that would reduce Clinton's total by approximately 84,000 votes. At 11%, Clinton's total would go down approximately 168,000 votes. In 2012, Obama carried Florida by 74,000 votes.
AA turnout was historically very high in Florida in 2008 & 2012 because AAs wanted to elect/re-elect the first AA president. That turnout is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to occur for Clinton.
Encouraging
1) Polls are all over the place, some showing Trump with 1%, some with as high as 21-25% in GA, SC and so on.
I think Trump comes in around 13-17%, which would be a high since Reagan in 1980.
2) REGARDLESS of how many black votes Trump gets, I think Cankles will be down at least 5% with blacks from 2012.
I’m sure the percentage of Hispanic electorate has risen.
And maybe they will turn out and vote for Trump.
Definitely. Plus Puerto Ricans can vote in Florida and have fled their island in large numbers. But, many White retirees have moved to the state. That balances out the rise in Hispanics somewhat. Florida is the state that Republicans typically get one of their highest percentages of the Hispanic vote - Cubans of course.
Aren’t most of the white retirees from liberal New York?
If black persons vote for Trump in any great numbers you can stick a fork in the DNC as it has been.
The DNC may also have to stop making “black issues” ride at the back of the bus behind gay-everything and abortion on demand.
I wonder can the DNC even claim to go back to being on the down low again after having come out of the closet so brazenly as they have done under Obama?
As Trump continues his courting of the black vote, he needs to do more than just mentioning their plight at rallies. He needs to visit the inner cities, go on black radio, place ads on BET, etc. I know he has his outreach program and I have no idea how effective it is, but I hope he continues to personally visit black neighborhoods.
With Latinos, Reagan got 37% in 1980. LA Times poll currently 35.7%
Cuban Americans remember communism and remember the Clintons. I expect a large number of them will turn out and vote for Trump.
Sure retirees from liberal New York move to Florida. But white retirees from ALL over the country move to Florida including Republican White voters.
Trump wins White voters overall. Florida will be no different.
I’ve always said, “Elian Gonzalez cost Gore Florida and the Presidency”.
I just pray he wins Florida.
But he dropped significantly in 1984, I think to 10?
That’s why Obama got out there and harangued black people saying he would consider it a ‘personal insult’ if they were not to get out and vote for Hillary. Who knows, maybe enough are disgusted with him for not making their lives any better, and will sit out the race, or in some cases, vote for Trump. I sure HOPE so, anyway
This is from the piece on the lack of enthusiasm among Hillary supporters I posted last Thursday:
The average of ten polls taken in the District of Columbia show Clinton leads and the average spread is 52.5/23- Barack Obama won DC in 2012 by 91/9.
This means in a Democrat village like the District of Columbia Hillary Clinton is running about 40 points behind what she should be getting just for having her name on the ballot.
Nevertheless, it gets worse for Clinton when one considers that the town is 48.5% African American. This means while the “wing tips” are not enthusiastic to vote for her, Blacks are actually ditching her and supporting Trump at the 20% rate that is now an established fact
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.