Posted on 09/29/2016 7:09:42 AM PDT by grayhog
Reuters has taken some heat in recent months for "tweaking" their polling methodology seemingly every time the data reveals "inconvenient" results for Hillary (see our previous posts on the topic here and here). But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling "tweak" is truly amazing. Having run out of options for slyly "tweaking" questions and categories to sway respondents in their preferred direction, Reuters has apparnetly resorted to blatant poll tampering by altering their polling samples to include a disproportionate number of democrats.
In their latest poll, released just two days ago, Reuters found Hillary to have a 6 point lead in a head-to-head contest with Trump. But, when you dig a little deeper you find that Reuters' polling sample included 44% democrats and only 33% republicans. Which would be fine, of course, if it had any basis in reality. But, as The Pew Research Center points out very clearly (see table below), registered democrats represent about 33% of the electorate while republicans are 29%...a modest 4 point gap versus the 11 point advantage in the Reuters sample.
Of course, this is significant because, as any reasonable person would expect, democrats swing toward Hillary by an overwhelming margin of 84% and, vice-versa, 78% of republicans swing toward Trump.
Now, using Reuters' data, Hillary supposedly has a 6-point lead over Trump. However, if we alter the sample data to reflect what Pew says is the real distribution of democrats versus republicans (i.e. 33% vs. 29%, respectively) and apply the same support levels by party affiliation it results in an 8.5% swing toward Trump who would have a 2.5% lead....very inconvenient.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Can I ask a stupid question? Don’t these pollsters care about accuracy??? Isn’t there professional reputation for accuracy in polling going to be judged on how well they predict an election??? If their polls are far off of the actual results, won’t they have “egg on their faces”??
Don’t these polling companies do a lot of work with polls and surveys apart from political campaigns?? Isn’t their professional reputation on the line if they turn out to be way off in this election????
MSM and RAT Liberal traitors think their BOGUS polls will do what? Trump supporters standing in line for hours at a rally are going to what? Abandon Trump because of a RAT-biased poll?
Our future, our children’s future, and our security are on the line and these vermin think their BOGUS polls will sway those of us who care about our freedom? I think not!
And if it does happen, the same people would love to act like the EU and ignore/punish those who dared "defy" them.
Their biggest problem is how they can do it without being hung, shot, or tarred and feathered...
I know most of these pollsters are leftists and will do what they can to shape public opinion. I don’t think they care about their reputations in a world run by their own kind. They expect and want Hillary to win. Folks, it all comes down to us vs. them now. I don’t care if a Democrat is white, black, Hispanic, Asian, gay, straight, male or female. They all have to be defeated for our nation to survive. I’ll worry about converting them later.
... Isn’t there professional reputation for accuracy....
Many decades ago, the MSM had a good reputation. Things change.
Can I ask a stupid question? Don’t these pollsters care about accuracy??? Isn’t there professional reputation for accuracy in polling going to be judged on how well they predict an election??? If their polls are far off of the actual results, won’t they have “egg on their faces”??
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Sure they care. However they depend on the huge majority of people to never look at the internals and truthfully most people you would ask do not even know what internals of a poll are and how they factor into the results.
These polls are done to shape and drive opinion not to inform. As long as they get the polls closely right in the last release or two before the election they can easily point to those polls and claim they were accurate while ignoring the distortions and manipulation in the previous polls.
You will not the polling co always claim the “polls tighten as the election gets closer”. This is how they can “ease” into legitimacy after being so blatantly disingenuous.
They care about accuracy only at the end.
All poll prior are for the sole purpose of shaping public opinion.
Reuters will NEVER publish their final poll with a D+11 sample.
Good question. The answer is: Apparently not. Early on during the primary season they want to be able to predict the winners. But I think many of them are really just a tool of the Left and doing what they can for the grand cause of getting their candidate, Hillary Clinton elected. They are there not to gauge the voting sentiments of the country but to influence the masses and the outcome. People like voting for winners. If her numbers are going down they will do what they can as part of the rat machine to prop her up. Any false predictions will be forgotten. Do you remember all the false predictions of the past and who made them? I certainly don't.
Not to worry about polls. Trump is going to win in a landslide!
Look they can mask to the general public the true percentages to the masses however they sell the true numbers to the campaigns. We see Hillary ahead, they tell Hillary you are sinking and going down which she is.
Ditto for Virginia in 2014. In the Senatorial race that year, not a single poll showed Ed Gillespie any closer than within 9 pts of Mark Warner - most showed Weird Mark with a 15-20% lead -- yet high turnout resulted in a <1% difference when all the votes were counted.
What was the ratio in 2012? What percentage of the voting electorate was Democrat in that election? Does anyone know?
Pollsters only worry about accuracy in the very last poll. Polling now is all about effecting turn out. Depress the Right’s get out the vote efforts, encourage the Leftists.
Remember, this is Reuters, the same organization caught faking war footage to manufacture a myth about “Israeli war crimes”.
ABC/WaPo Poll: 53% of Clinton Voters Believe Whites Have Too Much Influence…
Rasmussen measured it at D+6 in 2012.
They’ve altered their methods to account for the cheating.
Not until after October 15th or 20th. Up until then, they want to shape the outcome, not predict it.
It is even more blatant than usual this year.
All part of the plan, right?
The goal: recreate the post Hillary Bounce.
The vehicle: the debate.
The how: The how is the usual.
Step 1: Clearly and shamelessly rig the debate to be skewed toward Hillary. If necessary, throw her a lifeline. Also, have that “war on women” Georgie Stephie moment, who cares if you have to involve a half crazed porn star as the female victim.
Step 2: The usual, and written months before the debate, Hillary kicked arse take from the MSM. Cue up the “game changer” and “bounce” and “effectively ended his campaign” memes.
Step 3: Of course you have to cue up the bounce polls.
It was so easy to see this before the debate. That is why I refuse to call them debates. Really, they are artful, or not so artful, ambushes. The MSM hates Trump and has openly avowed to destroy him. The MSM controls the debates. What other result do we expect?
The real question, of course, is do these so called debates matter? I am of the opinion that the MSM is so naked in what they are doing that this only fuels into what is motivating Trump’s supporters. The system is rigged. tiviation
I meant to say that the goal was to recreate the post convention Hillary bounce.
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