Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending September 24, 2016

Various Polls | September 24, 2016 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

September 17, 2016
September 10, 2016 (Premier Edition)

Model Changes Since Last Week

• This week, I'm bringing back the "Tilt" designation. The Toss-Up category is being split into Tilt Democrat and Tilt Republican, but will not count towards the candidates' total. This will give visibility into how the toss up states are leaning.
• Maine has been split into the state and its two Congressional districts, in order to properly account for the likelihood that Maine CD-2 breaks with the state.
• I made a small change to the poll weighting algorithm to correct for turned off polls that were not outright deleted from the model.

The Race for the White House

This week, polls are unstable. Between small sample sizes with high margins of error to skewed demographic mixes, some suggest that polls are being manipulated to hide a Clinton collapse in light of her recent health issues and "deplorables" comments. The suggestion is that Clinton-favorable population segments are being over-represented in polling samples to inflate her results.

Given the state of polling as it is, Donald Trump has an expected Electoral Vote count of 256 versus Hillary Clinton's 282. Despite the drop in Electoral College votes, Trump's probability of winning is 43%, up from last week's 40%.

State Polling Updates

In California (55 EV), refreshed poll from Field/YouGov of 1,426 likely voters (9/7 to 9/13) shows Clinton overwhelmingly leading 50%-33% in a 4-way race. California remains Safe Clinton.

In Colorado (9 EV), a poll from Quinnipiac of 612 likely voters (9/13 to 9/21) has Clinton regaining the lead at 44%-42% in a 4-way race (4.0% MOE). An outlier poll from Colorado Mesa University of a small sample of 350 likely voters (9/14 to 9/18) has Clinton surging with a 41%-34% lead with a huge 6.3% MOE. Due to the very large margin of error, this poll is not being counted in the averages unless future polls confirm the spread. Colorado remains a Toss-up that tilts towards Trump.

In Florida (29 EV), a new poll from New York Times/Siena College of 867 likely voters (9/10 to 9/14) shows Clinton leading 41%-40% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.3%). A new poll from Monmouth University of 400 likely voters (9/16 to 9/19) shows Clinton leading by a wide 46%-41% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.9%). A poll from Suffolk University of 500 likely voters (9/19 to 9/21) shows Trump leading 45%-44% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.4%). Florida moves from Leans Trump to Toss-Up tilting Trump.

In Georgia (16 EV), a poll from Monmouth of 401 likely voters (9/15 to 9/18) shows Trump leading 45%-42% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.9%). A poll from Quinipiac of 659 likely voters (9/13 to 9/21) shows Trump leading 47%-40% in a 3-way race (MOE 3.9%). A poll from JMC Analytics of 600 likely voters (9/20 to 9/22) shows Trump leading 44%-38% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.0%). Georgia remains Strong Trump.

In Illinois (20 EV), a poll from Emerson of 700 likely voters (9/19 to 9/21) shows Clinton's lead cut in half to 45%-39% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.6%). Illinois moves from Safe Clinton to just inside Strong Clinton.

In Iowa (6 EV), a poll from Quinnipiac of 612 likely voters (9/13 to 9/21) shows Trump leading 44%-37% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). Iowa remains Strong Trump.

In Louisiana (8 EV), a poll from SMOR of 500 likely voters (9/15 to 9/17) shows Trump leading 49%-33% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.4%). Louisiana remains Safe Trump.

In Nevada (6 EV), a poll from Rasmussen Reports of 800 likely voters (9/16 to 9/18) has Trump leading 42%-39% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.0%). Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Leans Trump.

In Maine At-Large (2 EV), a new poll from Maine People's Resource Center of 835 likely voters (9/15 to 9/17) is has Clinton less than 1% ahead at 37.0%-36.7% in a 4-person race (3.4% MOE). This moves Maine's at-large votes from Toss-up to Leans Clinton.

In Maine CD-1 (1 EV), a new poll from Maine People's Resource Center of 440 likely voters (9/15 to 9/17) is has Clinton winning 40.5%-29.8% in a 4-person race (4.9% MOE). Maine's CD-1 vote is Safe Clinton.

In Maine CD-2 (1 EV), a new poll from Maine People's Resource Center of 396 likely voters (9/15 to 9/17) is has Trump winning 44.3%-33.2% in a 4-person race (4.7% MOE). Maine's CD-2 vote is Safe Trump.

In Maryland (10 EV), a poll from Goucher College of 514 likely voters (9/17 to 9/20) shows Clinton winning 58%-25% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.3%). Maryland remains Safe Clinton.

In Minnesota (10 EV), a refreshed poll from the Mason-Dixon of 625 likely voters (9/12 to 9/14) shows Clinton leading 44%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). Minnesota remains Strong Clinton.

In Nevada (6 EV), a poll from Fox News of 704 likely voters (9/18 to 9/20) in a 4-way race has Trump beating Clinton 43%-40% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). A poll from Rasmussen of 800 likely voters (9/16 to 9/18) in a 4-way race has Trump beating Clinton 42%-39% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). Nevada moves from Toss-Up to Leans Trump.

In New Hampshire (4 EV), a poll from Monmouth of 400 likely voters (9/17 to 9/20) shows Clinton leading 47%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.9%). New Hampshire remains Strong Clinton.

In New York (29 EV), a poll from Siena of 600 likely voters (9/11 to 9/15) has Clinton overwhelmingly leading 51-30% in a 4-way race (MOE 5.0%). New York remains Safe Clinton.

In North Carolina (15 EV), a new poll from Elon of 644 likely voters (9/12 to 9/16) has Trump narrowly leading 44%-43% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.9%). A new poll from PPP of 1,023 likely voters (9/18 to 9/20) has Trump leading 45%-43% in a 3-way race (MOE 3.1%). A poll from Fox News of 734 likely voters (9/18 to 9/20) has Trump leading 45%-40% in a 3-way race (MOE 3.5%). A poll from NYT/Siena of 782 likely voters (9/16 to 9/19) has race tied at 41% in a 3-way race (MOE 3.6%). Polls from August were retired. North Carolina moves from Toss-Up to Leans Trump.

In Ohio (18 EV), a new poll from Fox News of 737 likely voters (9/18 to 9/20) shows Trump leading 42%-37% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). Ohio remains Leans Trump.

In Oklahoma (7 EV), a refresh of the Sonner poll of 515 likely voters (9/13 to 9/15) has Trump leading 51%-36% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.3%). Oklahoma remains Safe Trump.

In Pennsylvania (20 EV), a poll from Muhlenberg College of 405 likely voters (9/12 to 9/16) has Clinton's lead bouncing back to 8% with 40%-32% in a 4-way race (MOE 5.5% Pennsylvania remains Strong Clinton.

In Virginia (13 EV), a poll by Roanoke College of 841 likely voters (9/11 to 9/20) shows Clinton's lead widening to 44%-37% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%). Polls from August were retired. Virginia remains Strong Clinton.

In Wisconsin (10 EV), a refreshed poll from Marquette of 677 likely voters (9/15 to 9/18) has Clinton leading 41%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.8%). A poll from Emerson of 700 likely voters (9/19 to 9/20) doubles Clinton's lead to 45%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.6%). Polls from August were retired. Wisconsin remains Strong Clinton.

Must-Win States

This is a chart of the states that were won when Trump reached 270 or more Electoral College votes. The numbers indicate the percent of the time the state was won when Trump won the election.

States in the 90+% range must be won to reach 270 electoral votes.

Elecctoral College Vote History

Using an average of polls from Real Clear Politics, the results of simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
03-Sep-16	148	214	295	21%
10-Sep-16	152	231	298	29%
17-Sep-16	181	258	343	40%
24-Sep-16	192	256	318	43%

Probability Curve

State Rankings Definitions

• Safe - 100% probability of winning
• Strong - 75% to 99.99% probability of winning
• Lean - 62.5% to 74.99% probability of winning
• Toss-Up - 50% to 62.49% probability of winning

24-Sep-16 State Rankings

Clinton - 258						Toss-Up - 38				Trump - 242
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Tilt		Tilt		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	2	Maine			9	Colorado	6	Nevada	11	Arizona	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	20	Illinois					29	Florida	15	North Carolina	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	16	Michigan							18	Ohio	11	Indiana	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii	10	Minnesota									6	Iowa	4	Idaho
10	Maryland	4	New Hampshire									10	Missouri	6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts	14	New Jersey									5	New Mexico	8	Kentucky
29	New York	7	Oregon									9	South Carolina	8	Louisiana
3	Vermont	20	Pennsylvania									38	Texas	6	Mississippi
12	Washington	4	Rhode Island											3	Montana
1	Maine CD-1	13	Virginia											5	Nebraska
		10	Wisconsin											3	North Dakota
														7	Oklahoma
														3	South Dakota
														11	Tennessee
														6	Utah
														5	West Virginia
														3	Wyoming
														1	Maine CD-2
131		125		2		0		38		39		106		97

Electoral Map

[Political Junkie Too]

Trump's rate of growth slowed this past week. Is it reflective of changing enthusiasm or poll manipulation?

We'll know more next week after the first debate.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

This week's ping.

Comments are always welcome.

As always, let me know if you want on or off the list.

-PJ

[outofsalt]

Interesting analysis which shows every vote counts. Remember, Romney had a great first debate and lost. This goes down to the wire November 8th. Lots of time for anything to happen, none which can be foreseen today.

[LS]

The early voting in FL basically says it’s all over there, and Trump will win by at least 1 million votes. He’s already up 310,000 if you only give him 5% advantage with indies-—way, way below the 10-20% most polls show him getting.

Just pure R over D early votes=121,000, or three times what Minion lost FL by. So you really need to move FL.

IA same, but for different reason. Ravi has the Ds way, way down there when in 2012 they were way up. So Trump also is safe in IA.

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[Political Junkie Too]

I don't disagree, but I'll move Florida when the polls show it. I think the polls are hinky right now.

-PJ

[SharpRightTurn]

As always, excellent work. I really like the way you set out the state-by-state analysis.

[goldstategop]

FL looks R +4 or R +6.

I think you can call it for Trump.

All current polls use 2012 turnout which was D +6.

If its a strong R + turnout nationally, that changes the entire picture.

FL may be the first indication of that trend.

If it holds up, the news is worse for Hillary than any one expected.

In a word, Democratic turnout is at far lower levels than seen in 2012.

[Political Junkie Too]

FL looks R +4 or R +6. I think you can call it for Trump.

The data is what it is. The model does what it does, and then informs.

All current polls use 2012 turnout which was D +6.

When do you think the pollsters will adjust for 2016? The outputs won't change until then.

-PJ

[wgmalabama]

Granted I am a long way from NH but traveled there for work a bit, I cannot reconcile all those red necks voting Clinton. I hope I am right. They (NH rednecks) do complain about all the massholes moving into NH.

[Persevero]

Of interest:

“Trump is adding Wisconsin, New Mexico and Maine to the existing 10 states where Trump ads are running. The campaign started with four battleground states and has gradually expanded as polls have tightened. The states where Trump ads will run will include Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. “

sourced as “CBS” on Democratic Underground (I was visiting to hear the lament of their women)

[irish guard]

You have New Mexico as a Trump state?

[Political Junkie Too]

Yes, but it is based on sketchy polling.

An August poll had Clinton leading 40%-31%, but an Ipsos poll in early September had Trump leading 43%-38%. New Mexico needs a fresh poll.

-PJ